Multiple MN Twins SP on Rotation Roster Bubble

The Minnesota Twins went into the 2025 Major League Baseball season under the belief that they had starting pitching depth. What Derek Falvey quickly found out was that he had an abundance of breathing athletes.

Fast forward to the smoldering mess that was a 70-92 season with a since-fired manager, and starting pitching was a significant part of the problem. Sure, more than one key arm missed time, but 16 different players took the ball to open a game.

It remains to be seen which of them will have a pathway to playing time next season, but there are at least two holdover starters that may be watching the hourglass run out.

Getting late early for Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson

To say that Bailey Ober was bad in 2025 would be putting it lightly. He was historically horrific in June, and his 14 home runs allowed during that stretch aided into the final 5.10 ERA. On the flip side, Simeon Woods Richardson and his 4.04 ERA looked competent on paper, but the stuff tells a different story again. The Star Tribune’s Bobby Nightengale considered the outlook for both in 2026.

One of the Twins’ biggest disappointments. A hip injury messed with his mechanics, and he saw his velocity dip all year. He had a 5.10 ERA in 27 starts, giving up 30 runs in 30 innings during a hide-your-eyes June. Twins officials are confident he’ll rebound. There’s no other real choice than to give him another long leash in the rotation.

Bobby Nightengale (Star Tribune) – On Ober

Demoted to the minor leagues in mid-May after an ugly start to the season, the young righthander had a 3.54 ERA over his final 15 starts. He started throwing his splitter more in September, and he looked near unhittable. He will be out of minor league options. It’s sink-or-swim time, but his September should keep him in the rotation to start the year.

Bobby Nightengale (Star Tribune) – On Woods Richardson

No one is praying that Ober rebounds more than the Twins front office. They believed he was in line for a Joe Ryan-like trajectory, and right now you’d have to trade him for peanuts. His 90.2 mph average fastball velocity was a problem dating back to spring training, and even with his extension, he simply doesn’t work throwing that soft.

Ober is projected to get near $5 million in arbitration this offseason. That’s a modest amount even for an average pitcher. It’s not worth handing out if he pitches himself out of the rotation though.

On the flip side, Woods Richardson earned a leash because of his 2.33 ERA in September. That was fueled by splitter usage, and the change was necessary due to velocity concerns. He has pushed things forward from the 90 mph slop he had two seasons ago, but he doesn’t miss enough bats even at 93.2 mph.

Like Ober, Woods Richardson is going to make the 2026 Minnesota Twins roster. How long they last will depend on how quickly they can establish the best versions of themselves. A 50th percentile or worse is not an actual major league asset.

Rotation gets crowded for Minnesota Twins

There are two paths forward for the MN Twins in 2026 and neither of them are particularly heartwarming. Either the arms that should be approaching big league quality aren’t ready or don’t have a place. If that’s not going to be the case, then one or both of Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez will have been traded.

If Lopez and Ryan remain, then the rotation gets filled out with Ober, Woods Richardson, and Zebby Matthews. That puts both Taj Bradley and Mick Abel back at Triple-A, with David Festa, Andrew Morris, Kendry Rojas, and Connor Prielipp stuck there as well.

Taj Bradley continues the concerning trend of Twins’ deadline acquisitions that just aren’t missing bats pic.twitter.com/JTFRWudroX

— Pitch Profiler (@pitchprofiler) August 24, 2025

Yes, having that level of depth is a good thing, but we just saw how little it can be counted on. If the Twins are going to go young and cheap, then a host of those arms start at the big league level and immediately need to make it work.

Of note, Matthews has a pitch mix that could probably thrive in relief. It doesn’t matter after the coaching turnover, but a source suggested he generated the most belief from the last staff in a future as a starter among the young arms.

What the Twins rotation looks like in April should be fascinating to say the least.