Former MLB GM Sleeping on MN Twins Starting Rotation

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Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins
Credit: Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images

At this point, you have probably heard (maybe from me) that the Minnesota Twins are projected to have one of the best bullpens in baseball this season. Yes, that was potentially the case last season, too. This time around, the Twins and their fans can only hope and pray that injuries don’t again derail those expectations.

So far, health problems on the MN Twins’ pitching staff have remained in the bullpen. Neither (LHP) Michael Tonkin or (RHP) Brock Stewart will be available to manager Rocco Baldelli this weekend, but the bullpen as a whole has a ton of high-end talent and maybe even more depth.

But the relief core isn’t the only group within Minnesota’s pitching staff that has high aspirations. And without a doubt, the Twins’ starting rotation is not getting enough attention, as of Opening Day Eve. In fact, one might argue that the Minnesota Twins have one of the better rotations in baseball… and some are.

Minnesota Twins starting rotation should be a strength

Pablo Lopez - Minnesota Twins
Credit: Chris Tilley-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins starting rotation has been set for a week and a half. Pablo Lopez is the ace and he’ll get the ball on Opening Day. Saturday, he’ll be followed by a combination of Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, then into Simeon Woods-Richardson and Chris Paddack round out the group.

The top half could be really good, if Lopez is himself and the Ryan + Ober combo prove what their early career numbers show, which is two of the best young pitchers in all of baseball. The depth, from there, are all guys who hold top-3 starter talent — Paddack, SWR, Matthews, Festa.

The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman is all in on the Minnesota Twins rotation, too. When he looks at the team, as a whole, it’s the starting staff that stands out to him as the possible difference-maker in 2025.

“The Twins, like the Jays, have a solid rotation with López, Ryan and Ober able to match up with most teams’ top three starters. López had 15 wins last year and logged a 4.08 ERA over 185 1/3 innings. Ober won 12 games with a 3.98 ERA in 178 2/3 innings, and Ryan went 7-7 with a 3.60 ERA. Woods-Richardson and Paddack both have more potential — can they offer more production this year than they’ve delivered so far in their major-league careers?”

Aaron Gleeman – The Athletic

You could certainly call Gleeman a homer, as someone who has covered the Twin as a fan for two decades. Nonetheless, he is always fair in his assessments, just like we are here, at Minnesota Sports Fan. Not only that, but nobody is more plugged into what the Twins are doing at all levels of the organization than Aaron Gleeman.

Thus, his opinion on the matter holds a lot of weight. As does, in a much different way, his colleague over at The Athletic — former MLB general manager, Jim Bowden. Unfortunately, Jim is not on the same page as Aaron, when it comes to Minnesota’s starting staff.

In his starting rotation rankings, which dropped Wednesday, Bowden placed the Minnesota Twins starters at No. 16 (out of 30), below average compared to the rest of the league.

“Much like in 2023, the Twins’ starting pitching will carry them this season. Led by a strong front three of Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, with Triple-A reinforcements Zebby Matthews, David Festa and Andrew Morris waiting in the wings as high-upside in-season depth, the Twins’ rotation will have a top-five ERA in the AL after ranking 11th last year.”

Jim Bowden – The Athletic

16th in baseball is a wildly low ranking, when considering everything mentioned above. Lopez earned Cy Young consideration during his first season with the Twins, and some projections have him vying for the same award this season.

Pablo may not be Tarik Skubal, Detroit’s ace, who most currently consider the best starting pitcher in baseball (the Tigers finished ahead of the Twins in Bowden’s rankings). But beyond Skubal, I’d take the Twins’ starting rotation any day of the week.

And if the bottom-half of their rotation lives up to the higher-end of expectations, this team could have the best 1-5 staff in the AL. Simeon Woods Richardson has proven that he can hang in the big leagues and Chris Paddack has the talent to be a front-rotation starter.

Fangraphs writer Ben Clemens can’t help but drool at what he sees in the MN Twins rotation, which he has as the 5th-best in baseball. Paddack and SWR don’t have to do all of the heavy lifting on their own. David Festa and Zebby Matthews both pitched at the big league level last season. Each will begin at Triple-A, but their talent is endless.

“This is the first team on the list that I don’t give much chance of ending the year as the best rotation in baseball. The Twins succeed with depth more so than dominance; their top eight options are all solid, which gives them plenty of insurance against injury, but they don’t have a run-vaporizing ace or two to kick things up a notch…It’s a deep group of arms, even if it’s not as top-heavy as your average top five rotation.”

Ben Clemens – Fangraphs

Minnesota Twins rotation depth is in a great spot

After his first two blowup outings last summer, Festa returned to the big leagues with vengeance, posting a 3.81 ERA across 54 1/3 innings. Then, there’s Zebby Matthews, who made his debut last season too. He probably needs more seasoning, but was exceptional this spring, with a 12/1 K/BB and no runs allowed in 9 1/3 Grapefruit League innings.

Beyond that tandem, the St. Paul Saints will have an very good group. Marco Raya, Andrew Morris, and Cory Lewis are all expected to make starts. Then there’s recently added to the 40-man roster Travis Adams. If Minnesota is forced to shuffle the rotation, they have ample options.

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