Rocco Baldelli Shines Light on Timing of Pablo Lopez Injury

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Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins
Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images

Minnesota have already won their four-game road battle this week against the Athletics. Unfortunately, they lost the war of attrition, in the process, when Pablo Lopez exited Tuesday’s contest before the start of the sixth inning, after feeling something in his lower shoulder wasn’t right.

Two days later, we found out he has a grade two Teres Major strain that will put him on the shelf for the next 8-12 weeks. It’s the same exact injury that ended Joe Ryan’s 2024 season last August.

Rocco Baldelli feels good about Pablo Lopez’ return timeline

But even with yesterday’s bad news, MN Twins manager Rocco Baldelli remains positive regarding Pablo’s recovery and the likelihood he makes it back for a playoff run.

Joe Ryan suffered his injury in August last season, exactly 64 days later than Lopez did, which bodes well for his pre-playoff return. Looking at the calendar, it’s easy to see why Rocco is so optimistic.

If Pablo had to sit out all the way until the 12-week mark, it would mean he’s back by the end of August, with over a month to get right for the postseason. In a more best-case scenario, Pablo Lopez returns just before the end of July.

Related: Carlos Correa Scratched from Minnesota Twins Lineup

Either way, he should be able to get in anywhere from 5-12 starts in, before the regular season is over, barring any sort of setback. If you’ll remember (even though we try to forget), August and September was when the 2024 Minnesota Twins season collapsed, without Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Joe Ryan.

This time around, Pablo should be back just in time for that same late-summer run of crucial regular season games. That’s huge, since prior to his injury, Lopez had posted a 2.82 ERA (2.98 FIP) across 11 starts (60 2/3 innings), leading the MN Twins pitching staff in fWAR, at 1.6.

Minnesota’s starting rotation has been an absolute strength this year, and Pablo Lopez has lead that resurgence. Now, it will be up to David Festa — who was called up in place of the Twins’ ace — to try and tread water for the next two to three months.

David Festa has a big opportunity for the Minnesota Twins

And there aren’t a lot of teams in the MLB more built to withstand a midseason front-of-the-rotation blow than the Minnesota Twins. Festa has already made three starts in place of Lopez, when he took a short-term trip to the injured list earlier this season.

In those three appearances, Festa posted a 1.38 ERA (2.38 FIP) with 15 strikeouts and 5 walks, in 13 innings of work. This time around, Festa will get his latest long-term opportunity in the big leagues. If he takes advantage, it could very well be the last time he ever gets called up, much like we saw with Bailey Ober two years ago.

As a rookie in 2024, “The Slim Reaper” pitched 54 1/3 MLB innings for the Minnesota Twins, posting a 4.90 ERA and 3.76 FIP. His overall numbers from last season do not tell the full story, however.

Related: Top MLB Insider Casts Doubt on MN Twins Trade Deadline

After giving up 12 total runs in his first two starts of 2024, David Festa was sent back to Triple-A for mor seasoning. When he returned, the 2021 13th round pick out of Seton Hall was a different dude, posted a 3.81 ERA (3.15 FIP) across his final 54 1/3 innings.

Prior to his call up last season, Festa was the Twins’ top pitching prospect, and a consensus top-100 prospect nationally. In 28.2 Triple-A innings this season, the 25-year-old has a 2.83 ERA (111 ERA+), 34 SO, 4 BB, 10.7 SO/9 and a 0.977 WHIP.

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