Realistically, the Twins are probably of the mindset that both Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan are expendable, which means the payroll will decrease further. If they do trade from the top of their rotation, it’s going to really hurt.

Last season, Ryan spoke on just how devastating moving on from staff ace Sonny Gray was for the pitching staff. After playing with the St. Louis Cardinals last season, the veteran will have a new home once again.

Sonny Gray is on the move again

Following a runner-up finish for the American League Cy Young award in 2023, the Minnesota Twins opted against paying Sonny Gray. He then signed a three-year, $75 million deal with the St. Louis Cardinals. He’ll now finish the final year of that contract in Boston after a trade.

Gray has full no-trade in contract and agreed to go to Boston https://t.co/XVWvgW8opJ

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 25, 2025

When the MN Twins handed Sonny Gray a qualifying offer, which he rejected, they were awarded the 33rd overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft as compensation. They used that selection on Kyle DeBarge. He had a .709 OPS with 66 steals at High-A Cedar Rapids this season as a 21-year-old.

The Red Sox are acquiring Gray and his $35 million salary in 2026, however St. Louis is sending $20 million in cash as well. There is a $30 mutual option in 2027, and there is a $5 million buyout. Gray is basically getting $41 million dollars for this year.

After posting a 3.84 ERA (3.12 FIP) in 2024 with St. Louis, he finished with a 4.28 ERA (3.39 FIP) this season for the Cardinals. His first start of 2025 came at Busch Stadium against his former employer. Gray bested the Twins over fine innings allowing just two runs and struck out six. The Cardinals won the game 5-3.

In exchange for Gray, the Cardinals get LHP Brandon Clarke, and RHP Richard Fitts. Clarke is a 22-year-old at High-A and ranked as Boston’s 5th best prospect per MLB Pipeline. Fitts was a sixth round pick by the New York Yankees in 2021, but has exhausted his prospect status. In 65 2/3 innings at the big league level, he owns a 3.97 ERA (5.02 FIP) with a 6.7 K/9.

St. Louis appears to be dialing back expenses, and future Hall of Fame shortstop Nolan Arenado is fully on the trade block as well. Minnesota’s only moves thus far this offseason have been a waiver claim of Ryan Kreidler, and a trade to acquire backup catcher Alex Jackson.

There are positive ways to spin that, but only if your last name is Pohlad and you prefer a cheap consolation prize over winning. This MN Twins team was supposed to compete for an AL Central title, just like the 2024 underachievers, who also fell short.

And these underachievers paid the price, when president Derek Falvey and the Pohlads teamed up to rip apart the roster at the trade deadline in a way we have NEVER seen before, dealing nearly half of their active roster and more than half of the bullpen.

If we peel back the layers, what led to the demise of what was, not that long ago, an incredibly bright future? Well, it doesn’t take a baseball scientist or detective to find that answer. It all stems back to when the Minnesota Twins announced a $30 million cut in payroll, between the 2023 and 2024 seasons.

But for the Twins’ 2025 All-Star starting pitcher, Joe Ryan, it wasn’t about the money they cut, it was about losing the third member of their 3-headed starting monster from 2023, the last time they made the postseason.

Joe Ryan calls out Minnesota Twins for move that ended it all

Sonny Gray was an All-Star for the MN Twins that season, not to mention their No. 2 starter in the playoffs. That was the final year of a contract, however, one that he signed with the Cincinnati Reds, before Minnesota acquired him via trade in March, 2022.

In 2023, at 33 years old, Sonny posted a 2.79 ERA, 9.0 K/9 and a league-leading 2.83 FIP in 184 innings pitched, good for a runner-up Cy Young finish. Oh, and he pitched phenomenally in his Wildcard game two start vs the Blue Jays.

Twins RHP Sonny Gray was fantastic today striking out six over five innings allowing no runs facing the Blue Jays. @Smyrna_Baseball & @VandyBoys Alumni pic.twitter.com/6x8whB9SD9

— Tennessee Baseball Network (@tnballplayers) October 4, 2023

That offseason, rather than doing everything possible to retain arguably the best starting rotation in baseball, the Twins never showed interest in re-upping Gray, who Joe Ryan says wanted badly to come back. Instead, Sonny signed for $25 million per year (3 years) with the St. Louis Cardinals.

According to what Ryan told the Star Tribune’s Phil Miller, that was the beginning of the end to a MN Twins team that wound up being deconstructed at the 2025 trade deadline.

“I wish Sonny [Gray] was still here. I feel like things would be different if he was.,” Ryan said. Ryan believes the problems are rooted in a money-saving decision two winters ago.

“In my opinion, that goes down as the biggest mistake we have made since I’ve been here. He wanted to come back. He loved it here. There were a lot of avenues we could have gone down, but if we had re-signed Sonny, I can guarantee we would have been in the playoffs last year, and we’d probably be in a better spot this year.

[Gray] was a top-notch guy, a great pitcher, incredible competitor, great guy in the clubhouse. I learned so much from him. We missed him last year.”

Star Tribune

Sonny Gray @Twins is Box-Toppers Player of the Game in Wednesday’s #WildCard win vs. TOR (5IP 5H 0R 2BB 6K W).

B-T Player of the Game winners in all 4 Wednesday #WildCard games—https://t.co/rnwivJ6N8t pic.twitter.com/SFDwyJNAqj

— Box-Toppers Baseball (@BoxToppers) October 5, 2023

Related: Twins Lose Veteran Starter in Latest Roster Moves

Here’s what I know about the situation. Ryan isn’t wrong, and he’s certainly not alone. In discussions with multiple team sources over the past two years, I have heard the exact same things that Joe expressed this weekend in the Star Tribune.

That letting Sonny Gray walk, and refusing to replace him with another legitimate top three starter, is what ultimately sank the MN Twins. As one team official put it to me, the clubhouse felt well set up with Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray leading the rotation.

Not only could they compete with the top of any rotation in the league, but the rise of Joe Ryan had the staff in a spot where they came in with the superior starter almost every day. With Gray gone, Ryan slid up a spot, where he continued to blossom. But behind him and Lopez, the Minnesota Twins’ rotation became very average.

Minnesota Twins owners chose cheapness over Sonny Gray

Ryan realizes the reason for letting Gray walk was financial, that the Pohlads were facing a debt that reportedly reached $400+ million. Those pay cuts, however, resulted in two-straight losing seasons and more fan fall out than anytime in recent MN sports history.

But really, Joe is convinced that had the Twins elected to bring Sonny back and cut elsewhere, things would’ve been different the past two summers (and falls).

That move would have had ripple effects, too, Ryan believes, from improving fan morale to persuading the front office not to trade off so many assets at July’s deadline to perhaps even raising the value of the franchise. And given the coin-flip nature of baseball’s postseason, he can dream of might-have-beens.

“Who knows how far we’d have gone?” Ryan said of the Twins’ failure to reach the 2024 playoffs. “But now we’d have two straight years in the playoffs, we’d be riding that a little bit, maybe it makes it a little easier [for the Pohlad family] to sell the team. Maybe we make other moves if they think we’re really close to a championship.”

“It’s not my money. I know they had to make adjustments, and I have no problem with owners running their teams however they see fit,” Ryan said. “But if we had signed Sonny, they would have been very happy about that decision. The return on investment would have been huge. I just think Sonny would have been so worth it.”

Star Tribune

Joe Ryan knows his time may soon be coming too

Joe Ryan isn’t going to see his significant payday until 2028, when he reaches free agency. Two more years of arbitration raises will bump up his $3 million salary nicely from 2025 though. In part, that’s why Minnesota has already been exploring the possibility of trading him.

Financially, it makes more sense for the Twins to trade Pablo Lopez and his $21.75 million contract each of the next two years. It also would just make sense for the Pohlads to invest in their team and try to retain talent rather than being focused on the lowest possible payroll figure.

Related: MN Twins Fans Make Hatred for Pohlads 98.5% Loud and Clear

Ryan is definitely a guy that gets it. He gets how roster building works. He gets that he plays for a franchise with a terrible ownership group. It also wouldn’t shock him if he’s the one parted out next. “I got traded once, it was an adjustment, and if I got traded again, that would be another adjustment. But it doesn’t change my goals.”

It’s a sad reality, but it’s also just the current state of the Minnesota Twins.

In other words, the bats are going right now and there is no end in sight. The MN Twins have scored 33 runs in their last three games (that is not a typo), leaving many of us to completely forget about this team’s offensive woes back in spring. The best part of this offensive explosion, though, is that their biggest contributors — Buxton, Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis — are leading the charge.

After the All-Star break, when Lewis returns from the IL, good luck pitching to the Twins. Find me another MLB offense with the type of fire-power as a healthy Correa, Buxton, Lewis and Lee. Then, surround them with talent a mix of playoff-stained veterans (Farmer, Kepler, Santana) and “2nd tier” young talent (Miranda, Larnach, Wallner). Without a doubt, the 2024 Twins lineup is built for a World Series run.

One for the record Brooks! 👏

Brooks Lee mashes his first Major League home run! pic.twitter.com/jtO6ClX0Sa

— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) July 6, 2024

Don’t you miss the Minnesota Twins 2023 starting rotation

But there is just one problem. The strength of the Twins’ 2023 team, the same strength that led to their deepest playoff run since 2004, now looks like a postseason liability. Minnesota’s starting rotation last season — especially near the top with Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray and an emerging Joe Ryan — was one of the best in baseball.

Combine a great starting rotation with dudes like Jhoan Duran in the back of the bullpen and you end up with a pitching staff that led the AL in strikeouts and finished 4th in team ERA.

A look at the numbers, though, shows that no MN Twins starter was better than Sonny Gray in 2023. His 2.79 ERA, 152 ERA+, 2.83 FIP all led the team. His 183 strikeouts to just 55 walks was 2nd best, only to Pablo Lopez. Gray also finished 2nd in the 2023 AL Cy Young race.

#MNTwins best ERA by starters since 1990 (minimum 175 innings):

2.61 — Johan Santana, 2004
2.77 — Johan Santana, 2006
2.80 — Sonny Gray, 2023
2.87 — Johan Santana, 2005

— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) September 23, 2023

Sonny Gray doing Sonny Gray things in St. Louis

So naturally, after one of the greatest pitching seasons in franchise history, the Minnesota Twins let Sonny Gray walk in free agency, where he signed a 3-year contract with the St. Louis Cardinals for $25 million per year ($5M more per year than what he was making here. How has he been with the Cards? Oh, you know… same old Sonny.

In 16 starts this season, Gray has recorded 115 strikeouts to just 24 walks. That’s 92.2 innings pitched, with a 3.30 ERA, 115 ERA+, 1.036 WHIP, 2.97 FIP and 11.2 SO/9. He is a legitimate NL Cy Young candidate (just like the AL Cy Young candidate he was last season) that we apparently didn’t need.

Sonny Gray today:
7 IP 👏
1 ER 😮‍💨
1 H🚫
8 K’s 🎯
0 BB🔥 pic.twitter.com/kAOS9fVFjR

— Cardinals Talk (@theredbird_way) June 23, 2024

What did the Pohlad family do with the $20 million per year they saved by letting Sonny Gray walk? Instead of reinvesting it into additional talent, they ate it, pointing to lost TV revenue as an excuse to cut player payroll. They traded Jorge Polanco too, and did the same thing with that savings. In total, the Pohlads cut $30-$35 million out of the roster, from where it was in 2023.

Pablo Lopez riding 2024 struggle bus

So now, here we are. We’ve made it to the halfway point of the 2024 MLB regular season. Carlos Correa is playing like the superstar he is paid to be, Byron Buxton has stayed mostly healthy and the Minnesota Twins’ top hitting prospects, Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis, look like two of the best bats in the big league lineup.

Unfortunately, pitching has been inconsistent, especially at the top of the rotation where Pablo Lopez has struggled to find the form he has had in the past two summers. His ERA has ballooned over 5.00, his ERA+ down to 79, both far and away the worst of his career. Home runs allowed (17) have especially been a problem.

Related: Twins vs Tigers Game Stopped After Ryan Jeffers Nearly Got His Head Taken Off

Thank the baseball gods that Joe Ryan has taken a huge step forward this summer, and he had another good outing on Saturday, throwing 110 pitches in 6.2 innings, allowing 3 runs and striking out 8. But do you trust him as the No. 2 guy in a playoff rotation? Do we currently trust Pablo Lopez to be a No. 1?

Pablo Lopez’s last 10 starts: 6.22 ERA, 61 hits in 55 innings. Twins are 5-5 in those games thanks to the offense.

— Jeff (@MNTwinsZealot) July 6, 2024

Unfortunately, it doesn’t much matter how we feel about either Joe Ryan or Pablo Lopez, because there is nobody else in the Twins’ organization who can even hold their jockstraps. And we haven’t even gotten to who would be the No. 3 starter, come October.

Who will be the Minnesota Twins’ No. 3 starter in the playoffs?

Sure, Simeon Woods Richardson has pitched well for a rookie, and hopefully he can continue that today against the Astros. But this is his first year ever as an MLB starter. He didn’t even start the regular season in the big leagues. He can’t be trusted as your third starter in a playoff series. Bailey Ober… he might be a better option?

Related: Minnesota Twins Expected to Activate Chris Paddack Very Soon

Wouldn’t it make you, a Twins fan, just giddy thinking about this lineup in a playoff series, backed up by a starting rotation of Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan (like what they had last season)? Oh, what could have been, right?

Joe Ryan's 2Ks in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/Oo7KpmgCU8

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 6, 2024

Instead, the Minnesota Twins desperately need a high-end (and high priced) starter at the trade deadline, if they are going to imagine themselves as true championship contenders in the American League. Offense is great, but once you get to the postseason, the teams with the best starting rotation usually advances.

If you are hoping the MN Twins find top-of-the-rotation help before deadline, don’t.

Beyond Pablo Lopez, they no longer have any starters who have proven themselves on that stage. And Pablo is currently on one of the worst seasons in his career. How are they going to find help for the rotation? That’s the question that the Pohlad family is probably too cheap to answer.

Related: Minnesota Twins Reportedly Calling Up Matt Wallner

How are the Twins going to find an AFFORDABLE no-brainer, game one or two playoff starter by July 31? Good luck answering that question. Trying to answer it is exactly what brought me to write this article. I cannot see a future where the Twins find what they need by the trade deadline.

And the worst part about that reality, is that we shouldn’t even have this need in the first place. Had the Pohlads been willing to pay Sonny Gray, or at least replace him with another top-rotation starter, I’d be writing about how little the Twins need to add this month, because they’d already have a true World Series contender on their hands.

Minnesota Twins starters project Top-10 in MLB

Nonetheless, Twins starters still project as the 6th-best rotation in Major League Baseball (2nd in American League) for 2024, according to FanGraphs.com, with a projected WAR of 13.0.

Best 2024 starting pitching right now
(according to FanGraphs):

1⃣ Phillies
2⃣ Dodgers
3⃣ Braves
4⃣ Marlins
5⃣ Blue Jays
6⃣ Twins
7⃣ Mariners
8⃣ Astros
9⃣ Brewers
🔟 Reds

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) December 22, 2023

Fangraphs projects that Pablo Lopez will butt up against the 200 IP mark and do it while striking out 10 batters per nine innings, with a 3.51 ERA and 4.1 WAR. They also expect Joe Ryan to take a step forward, throwing 179 innings with a 4.05 ERA. From there, the starters shuffle into place as expected, for now.

Related: Bally Sports North May Stream Timberwolves, Twins and Wild on Amazon Prime

Bailey Ober slots in as the 3rd starter (155 IP, 4.26 ERA), followed by Chris Paddack (126 IP, 4.31 ERA) and Louie Varland (101 IP, 4.12 ERA) as the 5th and final regular starter. Simeon Woods Richardson, the Twins top starter prospect with a real chance of impacting the roster in 2024, is projected to get 65 innings as the 6th starter.

Twins Starting Pitchers Projected Stats – 2024 (Fangraphs)

The Twins starting rotation has a lot of talent, but much of it is unproven. With Gray gone, Pablo Lopez is the obvious ace and he is getting offseason love as a 2024 Cy Young candidate.

Assuming Lopez pitches well, like he has his entire career, the rotation’s overall success will depend on a few things that are impossible to predict in December. Minnesota’s remaining starters are young and full of MLB experience, which should only make them better. Still, baseball is a funny game.

Related: While Twins Cut Player Salaries, Division Rival Royals are Spending

Starters not named Pablo Lopez will determine rotation success

Can Joe Ryan prove he is ready to be a legitimate #2 on a playoff-caliber roster, for example? Chris Paddack looked good in a relief role, late last season, after returning from 1.5 seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery.

That doesn’t mean Paddack will prove to be a plus-caliber starter, over the course of 125+ innings, though. On the other hand, he also has untapped potential that could launch him up the rotation, too, if he has success returning to the starting rotation.

I only played through high school, but Chris Paddack’s changeup is the nastiest pitch I ever caught.

I had to ice my thumb because of the arm side run on that thing. 😂

(h/t @PitchingNinja)

pic.twitter.com/WPxAxsJnSc

— Shawn Spradling (@Shawn_Spradling) October 12, 2023

Bailey Ober was arguably the Twins 3rd best starter last season. He should be a really good fit in that role next summer, but again, he’s young. And then, there’s Louie Varland, who we aren’t sure is better suited for a starter or bullpen role, so this is a very important season for him too.

Twins still looking to add a starter

Hopefully, Fangraphs’ projections won’t change the Minnesota Twins plans to upgrade their starting rotation, now that Gray is gone. President of baseball ops, Derek Falvey, has made it clear the team hopes trade as many as four veteran position players to return a middle-top end starter, along with some payroll savings.

Related: Twins Aren’t the Only MLB Team Cutting Payroll and Blaming TV Revenue

Up until now, they’ve been unable to find a willing partner and refuse to spend one cent in free agency. Thus, things are quiet. But this wouldn’t be the first and won’t be the last time the Twins make their roster moves later in an offseason… so we’ll just keep waiting.

Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda sign elsewhere

On Sunday night, Kenta Maeda signed a 2-year, $24 million ($12M/YR) with AL Central rivals, the Detroit Tigers. They made an effort to bring Maeda back, but ultimately failed. Then on Monday morning, Sonny Gray jumped leagues but stayed in the Central, signing a 3-year, $75 million ($25M/YR) deal with the St. Louis Cardinals.

Free-agent RHP Sonny Gray finalizing three-year, $75M contract with Cardinals, source tells @TheAthletic. First with expected agreement: @JonHeyman.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 27, 2023

The Twins will get a 1st round comp pick (around #33 overall) for losing Gray, after making him a ‘qualifying offer’ that he turned down, in favor of free agency. That’s a pretty good consolation prize for an organization openly cutting player payroll in 2024.

Related: Twins and Bally Sports North are Done; Wolves and Wild are Next

Losing really good players from good teams has been a thing in high-level professional sports for decades. Still, it’s frustrating when it happens to your team, especially when it’s one of your best players at a position you’ve struggled to successfully field in years past.

We do not know who will fill the void for Kenta or Sonny. But one thing is almost guaranteed, their replacements won’t live up to the bar they set. The Twins won’t be able to replace Gray’s talent and consistency at the front of the rotation, nor will they be able to replace the flexibility and postseason acumen of Maeda in the back of it.

Sonny Gray Statistics w/Twins

Kenta Maeda Statistics w/Twins

Sonny Gray declines Twins qualifying offer

Sonny Gray declined the #MNTwins’ Qualifying Offer. Twins would get a comp first-round pick if he signs for at least $50m this offseason,
which is expected.

— DanHayesMLB (@DanHayesMLB) November 14, 2023

Now, the Twins will get a 2nd round compensatory draft pick (end of 2nd round), if the 34-year-old Gray signs a deal that totals $50 million or more, which he is expected to do.

Related: Twins Plan to Upgrade Roster via Trade and Free Agency, Despite Payroll Cuts

If you are hoping he will find his way back to Minnesota, keep dreaming. Ownership has already admitted their plans to cut payroll, all but ending the small possibility that Sonny would ever pitch for the Twins again. And that sucks, because he threw out of body in the two seasons he pitched for the Twins.

As a member of the Minnesota Twins, Sonny’s ERA, ERA+, FIP, WHIP, SO/0… pretty much every single pitching statistic in the book was better with than his career averages. And that’s saying something because Gray’s statistics were already rather impressive, before he ever got here.

Broadcast revenue means a lot to MLB team budgets

TV/streaming revenue is a large chunk of a mid-market team’s yearly revenue. Most teams rely on their broadcast rights money, combined with ticket, concessions and in-stadium merchandise sales, just to break even on the year.

Related: Twins GM Thad Levine Interviewing for Red Sox PoBO Job After Derek Falvey Said No

That’s why making the playoffs, this fall, was such a big deal, after the Pohlads shelled out a franchise record $159.6 million in total 2023 player payroll (the $155M number below does not account for what Spotrac has labeled “Buried Minor League Salaries” but their actual payroll standing vs other teams is unaffected).

Cash Payrolls for the 2023 #MLB Postseason Teams

4. Rangers, $247M
5. Phillies, $245M
6. Dodgers, $238M
7. Astros, $236M
9. Blue Jays, $213M
10. Braves, $206M
16. Twins, $155M
19. Brewers, $124M
21. Diamondbacks, $117M
22. Marlins, $101M
27. Rays, $79M
28. Orioles, $71M

— Spotrac (@spotrac) October 2, 2023

Generally speaking, ticket sales and other revenue generated from home playoff games goes directly into the pockets of MLB owners. Straight profit, homie. Ownership needed a payoff, after stretching a previously limited payroll budget to amounts the organization had never been comfortable spending in the past.

Revenue uncertainty could affect Twins 2024 payroll

But now, Twins fans are starving for more postseason victories, after experiencing a small amount of success this October. Revenue uncertainty, however, could get in the way of improving the roster, in order to achieve more playoff success. As President of Baseball Operations, Derek Falvey, has admitted.

“That’s the reality of our offseason. It’s not just for us. It’s for other clubs, too. That’s a piece of information we’re going to have to navigate. It’s a factor that there’s lack of clarity on TV revenue. That’s a fact, that’s no secret to anybody. That plays a role [in payroll decisions], just like all of our revenue sources play a role, to some degree.”

Derek Falvey (via The Athletic)

Most of the band is still together, but there are 2024 question marks that will play heavily into projected success next season and, because much of the 2023 roster is expected to return, a lot of their payroll is already locked up, even if it’s not technically on the books yet.

Related: Byron Buxton Undergoes Knee Procedure; Plans to Play Center Field for Twins in 2024

How much money do the Minnesota Twins have to work with?

According to a recent deep dive into the Twins’ estimated 2024 payroll situation by insider, Aaron Gleeman (The Athletic), the Twins have anywhere from $110-$120 million theoretically allocated to the roster, as it stands entering the 2023-24 offseason.

That includes guaranteed and projected dollars, but not pending free agents… like 2023 Cy Young candidate, Sonny Gray. With the TV/streaming rights and revenue uncertainties hanging over the team’s offseason, a large financial commitment to the 2024 roster this offseason may be unrealistic expectations

“When the offseason begins, the Twins’ baseline payroll is between $110 million and $120 million. Assuming they’re planning to have a self-imposed payroll in line with this year’s $159 million — no sure thing given their expiring television contract and murly local broadcast revenue picture — that would leave between $40 million and $50 million to spend. But the TV situation looms large.”

Aaron Gleeman – The Athletic

If Gleeman’s figures are right (they always are), signing Sonny Gray to the $25-$30 million per season contract he’s worth, would, all by itself, put Minnesota’s 2024 projected payroll near their 2023 franchise-record setting number of $159.6 million.

Normally, I, along with most of “Twins Territory” would be well justified in demanding the Falvine and the Pohlads, not only bring Gray back, but capitalize on last summer’s momentum with an offseason aggressiveness that proves they’re ready to hang with some of the above-average payroll clubs around the league.

If a $175 million payroll can lift you from Wildcard winner to World Series contender, you do it, right? Well, maybe not, if you cannot find $60 million worth of yearly revenue that has usually come via a TV and streaming deal with Bally Sports that no longer exists.

Stay tuned… and read all of our Minnesota Twins blogs!

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

There were some really tough goodbyes happening in the clubhouse after the game, especially with Sonny Gray. This clubhouse and organization clearly meant a lot to him. From him to Buxton to Kepler, everyone raved about how uniquely tight this clubhouse was all year.

— Do-Hyoung Park (@dohyoungpark) October 12, 2023

Sonny Gray was the Minnesota Twins’ best player in 2023

Sonny wasn’t just good during the regular season. He was the team’s best player. You can argue semantics and what type of player matters more to a Major League Baseball team, but it’s not worth it. Because, there’s a statistic for that now.

It’s called WAR (see below) and Gray had the Twins’ best 2023 WAR, by far. That’s by both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs. His 5.3 rWAR was a full two points higher than the two Twins tied for 2nd most, behind him (Pablo Lopez and Ryan Jeffers – 3.3 WAR). At FG, where they measure WAR a bit differently, his 5.3 fWAR came in 0.5 points higher than Lopez’ 4.8 WAR.

Oh, you’re more of an old-school baseball fan, when it comes to statistics. That’s fine. Sonny Gray led the Minnesota Twins starting pitchers in most statistical categories fans care about/know most, including ERA (2.79), ERA+ (154), FIP (2.83), H/9 (7.6) and HR/9 (0.4). Any categories that he didn’t finish 1st on the team, he probably came in 2nd behind ace, Pablo Lopez.

On paper, signing Sonny Gray to a new contract seems like a no-brainer for the Minnesota Twins. But, as usual, the situation is far more complicated than that.

The biggest complicator is Gray’s age. At 33, he’s by far the oldest of the Twins 2023 starters and at an age where regression could be right around the corner. At the same time, there are plenty of the league’s best pitchers who are over the age of 35 and have even gotten better as they’ve climbed their 30’s.

Related: Disguised Kirk Cousins Spotted at Twins vs Astros Sitting Amongst Common Fans Yet Again

Sonny isn’t going to take a discount to stay with the Twins and he doesn’t have arbitration years left on his current deal, like Pablo Lopez had, before he signed a team-friendly long-term extension earlier this year. That means, the medium-market Twins are going to have to compete with the big market players, to keep him.

Qualifying Offer

No matter what, you can expect the Minnesota front office to make Sonny Gray a “Qualifying Offer”, which is an official way of saying, ‘we’d like to have you back, for one more season, at the bottom of market value’, AKA: $20 million.

Gray, because he can more money and a longer term elsewhere, is expected to decline the Twins’ QO, which would send him to free agency. Should that happen and Sonny lands somewhere other than Minnesota, the Twins would get a 2nd-round compensatory draft pick, in return for him rejecting the qualifying offer and going elsewhere.

So… what ends up happening?

Sonny Gray is going to be paid like a top pitcher, this offseason. Not an elite, proven postseason 1-year contract killer like Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander ($45 million) and maybe not even Gerrit Cole status, is working on a $36M/YR deal with the Yankees.

But certainly, Gray is worthy of $25-$30 million per year on 3-4 year contract, which will put him in the same category as Marcus Stroman, Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler; a multi-year top-pitcher tier.

The Minnesota Twins’ 2023 payroll was $159.6 million. That’s good for 16th in the MLB. Most of their roster will return for 2024, under the same or higher salaries. So, even without Sonny Gray, their 2024 payroll will start at around $150 million next season.

Related: Mr. October Carlos Correa Has Arrived and He is Beautiful

Of course, bringing Gray back would impact other roster decisions during the offseason. But, should they find a way to do so, I can’t see competitive roster that comes in under $165 million. Are the Twins willing to make that type of investment in a 33-year-old starting pitcher, coming off of his best season?

The answer to that could come down to TV money. Their contract with Bally Sports North does not run into 2024. Should they renew it, for a comparable amount to what they got from Diamond Sports (Bally’s parent company) in 2023, then maybe they are willing to run their payroll up that high.

But should they venture into the unknown and try operating their own TV contracts, the way the MLB is doing with select other markets, running a payroll that high would be a business risk I’m not sure the Pohlads would be willing to take, even in an age where they’ve spent way more than ever before.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

Target Field crowd helps lead Minnesota Twins to Wildcard win

And Twins fans showed up at 1 Twins Way ready to perform an exorcism, leaving both the home and away teams stunned at the amount of energy reverberating through the 13-year-old downtown baseball stadium. Rocco Baldelli commented on the atmosphere after both wins but had extra fervor to his postgame speech following the game 2 victory.

Rocco Baldelli on the playoff atmosphere Twins fans brought to Target Field, “it’s a weapon.” pic.twitter.com/JMbWnakWD0

— Baseball Is Dead (@baseballisdead_) October 4, 2023

Rocco Baldelli called the Target Field crowd "a weapon" after Wednesday's win over the Blue Jays. #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/Wv3NPXT1qZ

— Minnesota Sports Fan (@realmnsportsfan) October 5, 2023

“Our crowd, it’s a weapon. It’s a weapon for us. I mean, they’re still going right now. They were going before the first pitch. The crowd just never stopped. It affects us, in a good way, it affects the other team… it’s a weapon.“

Target Field fans get assist for game-changing pickoff

Not only was the Target Field crowd a weapon that could be felt throughout the series, it made a measurable difference on Wednesday, when Sonny Gray and Carlos Correa hooked up for a 5th inning pickoff play that ended the biggest threat Toronto mounted on the night.

Related: Minnesota Twins Sweep Blue Jays in AL Wildcard; First Playoff Series Win Since 2002

Correa noticed earlier in the game that Blue Jays baserunners could not hear their 3rd base coach, because the Target Field crowd was too loud. That led to the inning-ending pickoff that will be talked about by Minnesota Twins fans forever.

Correa and Gray both confirmed after the game that Correa notified him after the first inning that the crowd was making it difficult on the baserunners and that led to the called the pickoff play in the 5th.

GOT 'EM#MNTwins | #WeBelieveinTC

🎥: @MLB pic.twitter.com/SdCtJ6LD7z

— Bally Sports North (@BallySportsNOR) October 4, 2023

Sonny Gray says Carlos Correa called the pickoff play on Vlad Guerrero Jr. He told him the Blue Jays couldn’t hear their third base coach tell “back” because #MNTwins fans were so loud. @FOX9 pic.twitter.com/9g9DwVGlQb

— Jeff Wald (@JeffWaldFox9) October 5, 2023

We all thought that the big Minnesota Twins homefield playoff advantage imploded with the Metrodome but, clearly, Target Field can have the same effect as long as fans bring it like they did during the ALWC.

The Twins will get at least two more home games next series vs the Houston Astros, in their best-of-5 series.

Related: Minnesota Twins End 18-Game Postseason Losing Streak with Victory Over Blue Jays

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

But no matter how he finishes the season or how well he plays in the future, this will most likely be Sonny Gray’s only All-Star appearance as a Twin. He’s an unrestricted free agent after the season and multiple insiders are reporting that he’s not expected to re-sign.

Insiders: Sonny Gray wants $20M/YR and multiple years

The 33-year-old 3-time All-Star is seeking a three-year deal, in the neighborhood of $20 million per season. The Twins are willing to pay him for one or two more years, at that amount, but they do not want to put him on the books through his age-36 season.

The Twins have benefited from Gray’s often dominant pitching but seem unlikely to offer the best deal to keep the right hander in Minneapolis. Twins’ front office boss Derek Falvey could be willing to extend a one- or two-year deal, and significant raise, but three years at big money seems like a Twins deal breaker for an aging arm. But don’t bet against teams less budget conscious than Minnesota offering Gray a contract he can’t turn down (even if it’s for two years at bigger money than the Twins offer).

David Shama – SportsHeadliners.com

“[The Twins] do have [the] easiest remaining schedule [in the MLB]. They feel like, ‘hey we can still do something in October with this pitching staff and, when the season ends, we extend Sonny [Gray] a qualifying offer. If he wants to accept it, we’ll happily take him back in 2024 — approximately $20 million on a one year deal.’ The Twins would love to have Sonny Gray back in 2024 at one year, $20 million. I’d imagine he would say no to the qualifying offer, enter unrestricted free agency and sign elsewhere. The question is, can [he] get that Chris Bassett contract that he got from Toronto: three years, $63 million. But that he would get a multi-year deal, leave the Twins and the Twins get a pretty good draft pick [in return], after extending him a qualifying offer.”

Darren Wolfson – Mackey & Judd (SKOR North)

Goodbye Sonny Gray…

There is no chance, as is reported above, that Derek Falvey and his front office would ever offer Sonny Gray $20 million per year when it would mean rostering him until he’s nearly 37. Unless Sonny falls off the face of the earth during the back half of 2023, which I pray he does not, the Twins will not be able to afford him in the offseason.

That’s, in-part, why we have seen the front office take proactive steps to secure their rotation without him. That includes signing Pablo Lopez (27-years-old) to a 4-year contract extension a couple of months ago. Their rotation of Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack should still be very strong.

If you’re hoping that the Minnesota Twins trade Sonny Gray, in order to collect something in return before he leaves at the end of the season, that isn’t happening either. As long as they are in the playoff race, which in the AL Central is almost impossible to fall out of, they’re gonna go for it.

The 2023 payroll is too high ($156 million) for the Pohlads to run away from the additional income that comes via any kind of postseason appearance and/or run.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan