At least, that was the plan as recent as this afternoon, when head coach Sean McVay met with reporters and told them he believed that still to be the plan. But wildfires in Los Angeles are still out of control, and player/fan safety was growing increasingly difficult to guarantee.

Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Rams moved to Glendale, AZ

So, with the NFL up against a clock — setting up a Monday Night Football playoff production is not a simple task — the league made the decision on Thursday evening to move the game to Glendale, AZ, at State Farm Stadium, home of the Arizona Cardinals. The time of the game Monday has not changed.

VIKINGS-RAMS RELOCATION: In the interest of public safety, Monday's Vikings vs. Rams Wild Card game has been moved to Arizona.

The game will be televised on ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ at its scheduled 8pm ET time. pic.twitter.com/VVJcRZrSYM

— NFL (@NFL) January 10, 2025

Obviously, the Rams did not want their home playoff game moved to Glendale, especially given how many Vikings fans reside in Arizona during the winter. The Rams do not have an avid fanbase, given they just moved from San Diego, meaning this contest could feel more like a Minnesota Vikings home game, than the higher-seeded Rams.

Don’t take it from me. After the change in venue, Minnesota has jumped from a -1 point favorite to a -2.5 point favorite, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see that line continue moving in the Vikings direction, as we get into the weekend.

Related: Minnesota Vikings Looking Rather Healthy to Start Wildcard Week

Not only will the Minnesota Vikings have a better ratio of fans in attendance, but they now have a much shorter flight and only have to lose one hour between time zones. All we can do is hope and pray for those in LA who are directly affected by these horrible wildfires. But from a pure football standpoint, you cannot deny how much of an advantage the Vikings gained with this change in location.

Then, the losing resurfaced for a few weeks, before they found a way to beat the Raiders 3-0 in Las Vegas, just to give another game away in week 15 vs the Cincinnati Bengals.

In week 16, the Vikings hosted the Detroit Lions for a very important division game on Christmas Eve. Mullens threw four interceptions and the Vikings lost 30-24, officially foiling their hopes of winning the NFC North and sending their playoff odds plummeting, yet again.

Jaren Hall didn’t fare any better in week 17 vs the Green Bay Packers. After getting his second start of the season and struggling, he was pulled at halftime and Mullens was re-inserted as QB1 for the 2nd half of a blow out loss vs Green Bay that all but eliminated them from playoff contention.

And even with some fans cheering for the loss and better draft position, the Vikings still had a chance for some magic to happen in week 18. Nick Mullens could not move the ball well enough and even with a killer 2nd half for guys like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, the Lions were just too much for the Vikings. The Vikings no longer have a chance at the playoffs.

Related: 7 Biggest Questions Minnesota Vikings Must Answer This Offseason

NFC Playoff Picture Entering Wild Card Weekend

Exiting Week 18, Minnesota has been eliminated from playoff contention. This is the playoff picture with wild card weekend upcoming.

Related: Kirk Cousins Says He Will Consider Discount for Vikings

Current Minnesota Vikings playoff odds dead

Related: Vikings Land No. 11 Overall Pick in 2024 NFL Draft

If they had won in Detroit in their final game, their chances would have been higher, but they needed a lot to happen and unfortunately, none of that happened anyway. The Vikings would have needed to play much better in the weeks leading up to week 18 to have a chance.

Related: Nick Mullens Gets Emotional with Reporters After Vikings’ Season Ends in Detroit

Michael Russo worried about Minnesota Wild entering playoffs

And that is worrisome for many who know this team, and have watched every moment of every game this season multiple times through. Like Michael Russo (The Athletic), who told Dan Barreiro on KFAN Friday that he is concerned about Minnesota’s chances vs Dallas, who he believes is one of the hottest teams in the league.

“I’m not quick to just discount [the Wild’s recent slump] like those inside the organization seem to be poo-pooing it. I’m concerned. I think that they have lost their mojo. They, for some bizarre reason — with the conference on the line and that’s what concerns me the most — they went to Vegas, after that huge win in Colorado. They were there for four days and I feel like they took their foot off the gas and haven’t been able to catch up ever since.”

Michael Russo on KFAN Radio

Have Wild lost their mojo?

Russo thinks the Wild lost their mojo when they lost two-straight games to the Las Vegas Golden Knights on April 1 and April 3. Then, they lost Ek to injury on April 6 vs the Penguins. All three games were also losses. That’s a lot of L’s.

It’s difficult to argue with Russo’s logic. He goes on to talk about his concerns for how poorly Mats Zuccarello is playing, how beat up the Wild are and how hot the rest of the Western Conference is.

“What concerns me is, and I get why the Wild have sat a bunch of their players over the last couple games, but what concerns me is, not only did you lose your game, but now could you have lost your cohesion because a lot of these guys haven’t won a lot of games together in the last little while?

Kaprizov missed 13 games and has only played two games since. Mats Zuccarello, I’m very concerned about. This is somebody that I think has had a very subpar second half and that’s dating back to before Kaprizov was hurt. Kaprizov gets back in the lineup and I didn’t see a lot of improvement in his game.”

“The fact is Vegas is on fire, Edmonton is on fire, Colorado is on fire and Dallas is on fire.”

Michael Russo on KFAN Radio

Obviously, the Minnesota Wild could hit the ice on Monday night and look like they did when they went on a hot streak for two months after the All-Star break. Or, they could find their skates in game three upon return to St. Paul and never look back.

But when someone as plugged in and knowledgeable — not just about the game of hockey and the NHL but about of the Minnesota Wild specifically — is worried about how this team is playing, entering the postseason… then I am too.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

That includes arguably the most important and controversial question: ‘How good is Kirk Cousins?’

If you ask national football pundits about the Vikings’ QB1, the answer is, ‘not very’. Because across mainstream sports media outlets, the disrespect for Cousins is palpable. For example, Dan Orlovsky (ESPN) ranked Kirk as the 12th best QB (of 14) in this year’s tournament, behind both Geno Smith and Daniel Jones.

If you work for ESPN you are instructed to hate on the Vikings and Kirk Cousins @danorlovsky7 pic.twitter.com/CZfvbRGqDL

— Rick Sosa (@sosarick) January 12, 2023

Is Kirk Cousins A Top Ten QB? @BarstoolBigCat doesn't believe so.

Tune in to an all-new episode of the Pro Football Football Show Saturday morning at 9AM ET.

Presented by @ChevyTrucks #ad #Silverado #Chevy pic.twitter.com/IMTbfSAbbf

— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) January 14, 2023

Kirk Cousins cannot win with national pundits

For years, Kirk Cousins has been criticized for putting up empty individual numbers, always near the front of his peers statistically but rarely winning enough to make the postseason. He struggled mightily in primetime and in late-game situations.

This year, however, Cousins flipped the script. The Vikings won 13 games and Kirk led a league-leading 8 game-winning drives. Out of nowhere, Cousins turned into the most clutch QB in football. But, his individual numbers, especially in terms of efficiency, fell across the board.

Instead of praising the 34-year-old quarterback for finally putting wins over individual stats, however, his haters took aim at everything else. They pointed to the advantage Justin Jefferson brings and ripped Cousins for throwing the 2nd most interceptions in the NFL and for his career low QBR. Just like that, individual numbers matter all of a sudden. Weird how that works.

Winning was the only thing that mattered to Kirk Cousins detractors…

….until he started winning #SKOL

— TreMAINe ATTRACTION (@Mr_Objectivity) January 13, 2023

Empowered Kirk Cousins

If you surveyed his teammates and coaches, though, there’s never been more belief in Kirk Cousins. A once-fractured locker room has rallied around #8 in a way that he’s never experienced during his career and a lot of that has to do with first year head coach, Kevin O’Connell, who has taken ever feasible action possible to empower his quarterback.

That includes more say at the line of scrimmage. In an interview with the Star Tribune, Kevin O’Connell said Kirk has multiple plays at his disposal when he breaks the huddle and that he’s changed the called play, once he gets to the line, nearly 70% of the time this season. That’s a huge change from what he could do under Mike Zimmer.

How often does Cousins change something from O’Connell’s initial play call by the time the ball is snapped? “I would probably say close to 70 percent,” O’Connell said.

“We’ve scored on plays this year that either Kirk suggested, or a big third-down conversion he had ultimate ownership of,” O’Connell said. “I think the big thing for him this year is, his ownership has just grown by leaps and bounds, with his comfort and what we’re asking of him.”

Ben Goessling – Star Tribune

Silence the haters

So here we are. Kirk Cousins is finally being treated like a high quality quarterback by his coach and teammates and he’s parlayed that into 13 wins and an NFC North title. Yet, respect from football fans and talking heads across the league is still lacking.

Sunday, however, marks the beginning of an opportunity for Cousins to change his narrative across the football landscape. If he plays poorly and the Vikings lose vs the Giants, doubters will seize their “I told you so” moment to flex on those who believed. ‘Kirk Cousins is who we thought he was’, will be the narrative.

Or… Kirko Chainz could come out and shut everyone up. If he comes out and plays well vs New York and the Vikings win, critics will be forced to swallow their words for one more week. Then, should he pull a shocker over the 49ers next weekend, on the road, there’s no doubt we would see a brand new appreciation start to form surrounding Kirk Cousins’ career.

The take: “Kirk Cousins can only win 1pm games!”

The plan: pic.twitter.com/7d9TBnDmi6

— Kyle Brandt (@KyleBrandt) January 13, 2023

Make a Super Bowl… and hell, Hall of Fame discussions would even sprout up. Could you imagine Kirk Cousins HOF discussions? That would be a trip.

In other words, the 2023 playoffs is one of the final opportunities that Kirk Cousins has to reshape a negative narrative that’s followed him for most of his professional football life. If Cousins can lead the Minnesota Vikings on a deep playoff run, haters will have no choice but to put respect on his name.

So what’s it gonna be, Kirk? Super Bowl? Hall of Fame? A big money contract extension?

Or… “I told you so!”?

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

Ed Donatell coaching for his job…?

And according to Darren “Doogie” Wolfson (KSTP, SKOR North), Donatell is coaching for his job this postseason. Not only does he have to win this weekend vs the Giants. Doogie said on Thursday’s Mackey & Judd Show that Ed has to help the Vikings reach the Super Bowl if he’s going to have any job security entering the offseason (09:45 mark — transcribed below).

“Barring some sort of miraculous 3 or 4 game run here starting on Sunday, I’m fully prepared to start searching on who those candidates are. Will the Vikings reach out to them? Like, I think the end is near here for Ed Donatell.”

“Yes, if they play unbelievably well against the Giants, shock us, I do believe the 49ers beat the Seahawks. So, let’s say it’s Saturday, January 21st, the Vikings go to Santa Clara, if they win that game, if they shut down Deebo [Samuel], Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle & Co. Move onto the NFC Championship Game, then play well, shut down Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, win. Get to Glendale in February… Okay, we can have a different conversation. But I’m not sure I like all of those things happening. I can see them winning on Sunday but not sure I see much beyond that so I am preparing as if there is going to be a change.”

Darren Wolfson – Mackey & Judd Show

Failed experiment

Donatell was brought in to transition the Vikings from a 4-3 Mike Zimmer scheme to a 3-4 Vic Fangio scheme, something we’re seeing more and more across the NFL. It’s a zone-style coverage scheme that relies on a 4-man rush and focuses on minimizing explosive plays.

Unfortunately for the Vikings, those concepts haven’t carried over to the football field, especially in coverage. Donatell’s 2022 pass defense allowed the 3rd-most air yards in the NFL, 3rd most yards per attempt and 5th-most yards per completion. The defense, as a whole, allowed the 3rd-most points.

Still, the Vikings managed a 13-4 season and pulled impossible wins out of situations that wouldn’t even fly in Hollywood. Without a doubt, Donatell’s defense played a part in Minnesota going 11-0 in one-score games. Oftentimes, they’d buckle down late when a stop was required to give the offense a chance or chances.

The good times couldn’t save Ed Donatell’s job.

Like in Buffalo, the Bills scored 24 first half points before the Vikings defense buckled down and only allowed 6 points in the second half. And don’t forget about the fumble they recovered in the endzone to claim victory that afternoon.

VIKINGS RECOVER THE FUMBLE FOR THE TD. WHAT IS HAPPENING!? ????????

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/sJqf48NJtH

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 13, 2022

Then there was the largest comeback in NFL history vs the Colts. The Vikings gave up 33 first half points, many of which were on offensive mistakes, then only 3 points in the second half. Same type of thing happened in wins over the Patriots and Lions too.

So the defense has had its moments and contributed, at times, to where the Vikings are entering the postseason. But there’s no doubt its been their biggest weakness and stands as that entering Wildcard weekend.

Sure, NFL pundits continue to doubt Kirk Cousins and the injury riddled offensive line is going to be a problem this weekend, but it’s the defense that has the Vikings ranked by Football Outsiders as the least likely of all playoff teams to win the Super Bowl.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

Sure, it took two failed physicals elsewhere to get here, but who cares? All that matters is the Twins now roster a top-3 MLB shortstop, in his prime, and he’ll play his home games at Target Field for the foreseeable future.

Carlos Correa has passed his Twins physical. Announcement coming today.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 11, 2023

2023 Twins are already better than 2022 squad

This is the second time Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have had Carlos Correa dropped into their laps. Last season, the addition of Correa made the Minnesota Twins a playoff possibility, in a weak American League Central.

Unfortunately, the roster battled injuries throughout the season and Byron Buxton played at 50% health for most of it. Still, it was the starting rotation that hurt them most.

In 2023, though, the Twins should be better in all three phases of the game. Of course, Byron Buxton could miss over half the season and that would completely change the conversation. But if we assume they stay relatively healthy, which we must if forecasting the future of any team, the Twins already look playoff caliber on paper.

2023 Twins version 4.0 pic.twitter.com/mMAdhzKTCp

— Nash Walker (@Nashwalker9) January 10, 2023

Infield/Outfield Both Better

Gio Urshela is gone so Jose Miranda will play 3rd base, Jorge Polanco 2nd base and Luis Arraez 1st base. The Twins upgraded at catcher when they signed Christian Vazquez to a 3 year, $30 million deal. Throw Kyle Farmer at SS and it’s an extremely mediocre infield. But with Correa at shortstop, it’s suddenly bursting with talent, potential and veteran savvy.

If we assume Byron Buxton stays healthier in 2023, the outfield is immediately improved from last season. Remember, Buxton’s knee injury forced him to DH for 1/3 of his appearances in 2022.

I am so excited to watch Byron Buxton again this year. pic.twitter.com/TaoxXn09vH

— Nick Nelson (@NickNelsonMN) January 2, 2023

Add in Joey Gallo and Max Kepler (for now) and you have one of the best defensive outfield in Major League Baseball. Offensively, the corner outfield presents a likely weak spot. But Gallo provides power the Twins didn’t have a year ago. If his wrist is healthy, Alex Kirilloff could provide an offensive boost at DH, 1B, LF and RF.

Pitching Staff Way Better

In the starting rotation, the 2023 Minnesota Twins look exponentially better off than they did in 2022. Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle and Bailey Ober are all expected to start spring training healthy.

Insert those three into a rotation with Sonny Gray (’22: 3.08 ERA, 125 ERA+) and Joe Ryan (’22: 3.55 ERA, 109 ERA+), by far the best and most consistent starters for the Twins in 2022, it might be top-10 entering the regular season.

Is there a bona fide #1 starter on staff? A guy we can all feel comfortable about throwing out there vs any lineup or any top ace in the league? No, but a healthy Mahle is a really good #2 on a great staff and Gray wouldn’t look bad in that spot either.

Joe Ryan projects as an eventual #2 but already stands as a solid #3 starter. A healthy Maeda should be a really good #3, as well, if he returns near his former form. And Bailey Ober, at worst, is a really good #4 option in any rotation.

Then there’s Josh Winder, Luis Varland and Simeon Woods-Richardson, three exciting young starting pitchers who should come into the 2023 season immediately ready to contribute big league innings, if called upon. It’s a type of rotation talent and depth that this roster hasn’t seen in a long time.

In the bullpen, the Twins have some holes but it’s anchored by Jhoan Duran, who looked like one of the most dominant late-inning relievers in baseball last year. Fellow youngsters: Jorge Alcala, Jorge Lopez and Griffen Jax all have questions to answer but they all have proven high-leverage upside at the MLB level.

And let’s be honest, bullpen is the easiest part of your roster to improve both during the season and in the offseason. Between their farm system and the MLB trade market, the Twins should be able to improve their bullpen with relative ease, if necessary.

More Moves Coming…?

On Tuesday, Darren Wolfson (SKOR North, KSTP) reported that there will be more moves coming from the Minnesota Twins before spring training hits next month. Luis Arraez, Kenta Maeda, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle have all been in the rumor mill recently and all four are logical options to be moved, for one reason or another.

The Twins have valuable assets sitting in their minor league system, too. 2022 #8 overall pick, Brooks Lee, hit .303 with an .839 OPS and finished his first year of pro baseball at AA – Wichita. He’s 21 years old and should continue to skyrocket through the system.

Prospect of the day: Brooks Lee
– #1 prospect in the #Twins system
– 8th overall pick in ‘22 draft
– Switch hitter pic.twitter.com/b14is4jZzx

— Discuss Baseball (@discussbaseball) December 20, 2022

Royce Lewis (23 y/o) looked more than ready to contribute at the MLB level last season, hitting .300 with a .867 OPS with the Twins (41 PA), until he blew out his knee. Both prospects could be ready for the big leagues by mid-season and both play shortstop.

Could that be where the front office turns, in order to improve the front end of the starting rotation? We’ll see. But even if they don’t, the signing of Carlos Correa has immediately made the 2023 Minnesota Twins a playoff contender and a much, much better team than what took the field in 2022.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

US Bank Stadium, one of the loudest venues in professional football, will be rocking. Unless you ask Giants’ offensive lineman, Nick Gates, who told media yesterday that he isn’t worried about the decibel level next weekend.

Quiet US Bank Stadium?

Why not? Because, according to Gates, US Bank Stadium wasn’t that loud when the Giants played there a few weeks ago. Apparently, we’re just nice midwestern people who aren’t mean enough to get loud.

“Surprised. Actually, I thought it would be a lot louder,” Gates said. “I thought especially when our offense is out there they would be a lot louder out there. But you know, they’re Midwest people. They’re too nice. I can say it because I went to Nebraska. I went to Nebraska. I include myself in that one.”

Nick Gates (via ESPN)

What a stupid quote for Nick Gates to let an entire fanbase pin to their collective bulletin board. Anyone want to tell this dude that most of the loudest stadiums in the NFL (Arrowhead, Lambeau, Lucas Oil, US Bank) are in the midwest?

Loudest Stadiums in NFL

A quick Google search tells us that Gates is full of shit so there’s no point in being upset. The Bank ranks as a top-six NFL stadium when it comes to recorded decibel levels. It’s only one of six stadiums league-wide that has hit a decibel level of 120 or more.

1. Arrowhead Stadium (Chiefs) — 142.2 decibels (Guinness Record)
2. Lumen Stadium (Seahawks) — 137.6 decibels
3. Caesars Superdome (Saints) — 136.6 decibels
4. State Farm Stadium (Cardinals) — 130 decibels
5. Lambeau Field (Packers) — 123 decibels
6. US Bank Stadium (Vikings) — 120.1 decibels

For comparison purposes, the Guinness World Record for loudest indoor stadium is 130.4 decibels and was set at Allen Fieldhouse during a Kansas Jayhawks game. During the 1991 World Series, crowds at the Metrodome reached 125 decibels.

Outside of the top-three stadiums above, US Bank Stadium gets as loud as any in football. If fat and happy regular season Vikings fans, who were already looking forward to the playoffs when the Giants came here the first time around, weren’t loud enough for Mr. Nick Gates… then he’ll feel much better about what he hears this coming Sunday.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

More recently even, a once dead question has risen from the ashes. With Jalen Hurts injured and unlikely to play again this week, could the (12-3) Vikings steal the NFC’s #1 seed from the (13-2) Philadelphia Eagles in the final two weeks of the season?

Battle for NFC Supremacy

For that to happen, the Vikings would have to win both of their next two games and the Eagles would have to lose both of theirs.

The Vikings need to win at Green Bay and at Chicago (and get help from Philadelphia) to seize the NFC's No. 1 playoff seed. Might need to do it to keep the No. 2 seed as well. Finishing 2-0 would be another chapter in their historic season. From Saturday @SportsCenter: pic.twitter.com/rmwvAkepuR

— Kevin Seifert (@SeifertESPN) December 31, 2022

The Eagles have only lost two games all season and now we’re asking them to lose two straight to end the year? On top of that, the Vikings must beat the Packers and Bears on the road; something they have never done late in the season.

Hyperbole? Maybe. But what part of the Vikings’ 2022-23 season hasn’t been pulled from some tall tale Hollywood script? For that reason alone, it’s worth taking a deeper dive into what exactly the purple are up against.

Week 17: Saints @ Eagles (12:00 PM)

The Eagles are -5.5 point favorites to beat the Saints in Philly on Sunday (noon kickoff). Jalen Hurts is doubtful to play. He practiced for the first time in two weeks on Thursday and Friday but insiders expect Gardner Minshew to start under center for the 2nd-straight game.

Offense wasn’t the problem last week when the Eagles lost to the Cowboys in a 40-34 shootout but Minshew wasn’t great, finishing 22/40 for 355 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

Philadelphia has a better football team than New Orleans but let’s be real. They become much more beatable without their MVP candidate quarterback. Sportsbooks can run up the spread on this game all they want but Gardner Minshew makes the Eagles just another team.

Week 17: Vikings @ Packers (3:25 PM)

Believe it or not, the (12-3) Minnesota Vikings are +3.5 point underdogs vs the (7-8) Green Bay Packers this weekend. Call it the Aaron Rodgers effect or late season Lambeau Field advantage if you want but if I’m Kevin O’Connell, I call it disrespect.

"This would be more than just a win for Minnesota. It's a statement that we are seizing the torch in the division once and for all. The @Vikings are 12-3 and are underdogs against the 7-8 Packers." @PSchrags pic.twitter.com/b31lZCo6sn

— Good Morning Football (@gmfb) December 30, 2022

Still, as Minnesota sports fans we know better than to think the Vikings are going to walk into Green Bay and hang an easy W on a Packers team that must win to keep their playoff hopes alive.

We should know if the NFC’s #1 seed is still in play by the time this game starts but the San Francisco 49ers are biting at the Vikings’ heels for the #2 seed. That makes Eagles vs Saints irrelevant as to who takes the field for the purple and gold.

Week 18 Outlook

As mentioned earlier, the Vikings will play in Chicago vs the Bears next week. Even given their history at Soldier Field, they’ll be favorites as long as starters play.

Meanwhile, the Eagles will play at home vs the (8-6-1) New York Giants, who are smack dab in the middle of the NFC Wildcard race. Both of Philly’s losses this season were against division rivals (Cowboys, Commanders).

Again, week 18 won’t matter if the Minshew-led Eagles beat the Saints tomorrow. If this game matters, however, I’d expect Hurts to play.

What do prediction models and sportsbooks say?

FiveThirtyEight.com doesn’t like the odds of the Vikings stealing the #1 seed from the Eagles. According to their prediction model, the Vikings have just a 2% chance of winning the NFC, heading into week 17. The Eagles have a 94% chance. Should Philly lose on Sunday and Minnesota win, however, those odds will change drastically.

The sportsbooks (FanDuel.com) see a heist of the NFC’s #1 seed as nearly impossible as well, giving the Vikings +2700 odds to make it happen. That’s $100 to win $2,700. The Eagles, meanwhile, are -1450 to keep the #1 seed. That’s $1,450 to win $100. Even if you don’t believe in miracles, this seems worth betting Vikings. Wow.

Again, everything about the Minnesota Vikings 2022-23 season has been impossible. See you at your favorite betting site. Let’s turn miracles into cash.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

Vikings want rest in week 18

It’s an important matchup for the purple, especially if O’Connell & Co are going to lock in the NFC’s 2-seed before week 18. And that’s the hope, according to Darren Wolfson (KSTP, SKOR North). Because the Vikings would like to rest key players when they travel to Chicago to play the Bears for the regular season finale. Soldier Field is one of the worst playing surfaces in the NFL, despite what the NFLPA may think, and avoiding catastrophic injury entering the postseason is top of mind.

“What the Vikings are hoping for is to secure the 2-seed before that last game in Chicago. If you think about that turf in Chicago… I had someone with the Vikings tell me this the other day. That turf is so bad, the Vikings don’t want to risk injury the week before a playoff game.” — Darren Wolfson (SKOR North)

To have any chance of that happening, Minnesota will have to win both of their next two games and hope the San Francisco 49ers drop one in that same timeframe. The Vikings will need luck on their side to make that happen because the 49ers look like one of the best teams in football right now.

Lady Luck loves both teams

Lucky for them (pun intended), four leaf clovers and horseshoes haven’t been hard to find during the first 15 weeks of the season. According to the NFL, the Minnesota Vikings are the 2nd-luckiest team in the league. On Saturday, however, they’ll face THE luckiest team, the New York Giants.

Luck dashboard update for weeks 1-15.

NYG@MIN this Saturday is a matchup between the two luckiest teams. pic.twitter.com/sxnjWTvqUN

— Tom Bliss (@DataWithBliss) December 20, 2022

We’ve talked a little bit about this newfound “luck” measurement before. But here’s how the NFL explains it, along with some specific explanations via their Football Ops Data Scientist, Tom Bliss.

Although NFL game outcomes are far from random, teams still get lucky. We identified four key scenarios where teams benefit from actions in a game that are almost entirely derived from opponent performance or lucky bounces.

• Dropped Interception (dropped by opponent): When an opponent drops an interception, you get lucky. We assume that the intercepting team keeps possession at the spot of the drop. 
• Dropped Pass (dropped by opponent): When an opponent drops a pass, you get lucky. We assume the offense would gain yards after catch using the Next Gen Stats Expected YAC model.
• Field Goals and Extra Points (attempted by opponent): When an opponent misses a kick, you get lucky, and when your opponent makes a kick, you get unlucky. Field goal make probabilities are based on the Next Gen Stats Field Goal Probability model.
• Fumble Recoveries (by either team): When a team recovers a fumble, there’s a chance the luck of the bounce was involved. Fumble recovery probabilities are based on observed recovery percentages by when the fumble occurred (i.e., after a catch, during a rush, fumbled snap, muffed punt).

This is unblocked opponents field goals. It is unlucky to lose on a 60 yard field goal, and it is also lucky to win on a missed 20 yard field goal.

— Tom Bliss (@DataWithBliss) December 20, 2022

~40% of interceptions are dropped. Teams that almost never have potential interceptions dropped have a negative win prob.

— Tom Bliss (@DataWithBliss) December 20, 2022

Just win, baby

Whether you believe in this “luck” methodology or not, it’s impossible to have watched this Minnesota Vikings season without wondering if there is a destiny factor built into their success. The comeback vs Buffalo is one of the best of 2022 and took the greatest catch of all time to complete. And the victory last week vs Indianapolis is in the NFL history books as the largest comeback ever.

But this weekend, they’ll face the only NFL team supposedly luckier than they are. What does that mean? Probably nothing. The Vikings are at home and playing an 8-5-1 team that lacks high-end talent on offense, beyond Saquon Barkley.

Just win, baby.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

But there was one hurdle the two stars had yet to jump over during their young careers. Both players have struggled to be the offensive forces in the NHL Playoffs that they have regularly proven to be during the season. Unfortunately, Monday’s 0-4 Blues shutout at Xcel Energy Center will only advance their no-show playoff narrative.

Siri, why did the #mnwild lose last night?

Siri: pic.twitter.com/yry6Wbk0AL

— Minnesota Sports Fan (@realmnsportsfan) May 3, 2022

Shot attempts 55-28 for the @mnwild through two.

Blues have hit the net with 22 of 28 attempts!

Will this be one of those nights that Kaprizov held quiet for a couple periods and then makes a big play?

— Anthony LaPanta (@AnthonyLaPanta) May 3, 2022

The Wild struggled to find any offense 5v5 or on the power play and needed one of their stars to break the ice. But it never happened. The Wild’s 3rd line of Joel Eriksson Ek, Marcus Foligno and Jordan Greenway (GREEF) was the only grouping that challenged the Blues’ defense. They more than doubled the “Corsi For” of the two lines built to carry this team offensively. But even when confronted, Villa Hussa wasn’t letting anything through.

Dean Evason needed one of Kirill Kaprizov or Kevin Fiala to make a superstar play but nobody rose to the occasion. It felt like so many playoff games we’ve watched this team play in before. Good chances come few and far between, even while the shot attempts pile up. And when high-percentage opportunities present themselves, the Wild can’t capitalize. Deja vu.

Playoff No-Shows

Kevin Fiala has a lot more playoff experience than Kaprizov. Monday was his 30th playoff game but Kevin has just 9 goals and 3 assists in all that action. Spread over 82 games, that’s 25 goals and 8 assists, numbers that wouldn’t get anyone paid.

Kirill Kaprizov has just one playoff appearance to look back on, but the 2021 postseason wasn’t pretty for the young superstar, who posted just 2 goals and 1 assist in 7 games. After Monday night, his “games played” statistic moved to 8. Still 2 goals and 1 assist.

If the Minnesota Wild are going to turn this series around, it will be thanks to their most skilled players doing the same. Kirill Kaprizov and Kevin Fiala have to be better and they have to put some points on the board.

Those guys are what sets the Wild apart from the Blues and many teams in the NHL. If they’re neutralized, like they were on Monday night and like they have been throughout their careers, then the Wild are severely outmatched.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan