Local reporters are following that line pretty closely, as all Vikings beat reporters with recorded predictions for tonight’s matchup picked Minnesota to squeak out a close victory in the Windy City. National media pundits are more split.

Had they seen the exchange between three MN Vikings beat writers during their most recent “Access Vikings” podcast episode — like you are about to — I’d imagine many of their big timer national colleagues would reconsider.

I’m pretty convinced is the most under-reported Vikings vs Bears storyline of the day, leading up to week 1’s Monday Night Football opener in Chicago. It involves Bears QB Caleb Williams and how the Minnesota defense is feeling internally about tonight’s nationally televised game.

But first, let’s cover some quick background because this was the context, before we can properly introduce the conversation you came here to read about, which took place between Ben Goessling, Andrew Krammer and Emily Leiker from the Star Tribune.

The Caleb Williams bombshell story

In case you haven’t heard, an article written by independent NFL insider Tyler Dunne recently dropped over at his website, GoLong.com. In the piece, the respected NFL insider details just how impossible 2024 No. 1 overall draft pick Caleb Williams was to coach last season.

Not only was his attitude a problem, but so was his QB processor and leadership abilities. Obviously, all of the above cause major friction with coaches and teammates.

Williams struggled to execute elementary tasks. Every day was a new disaster.

That early, that spring, the Bears changed the snap count to appease Williams. Instead of using a combination of colors and numbers like every other team in the NFL, the Bears reverted to a “Ready, set, go!” straight out of JV football because that’s what the quarterback requested.

Aside from the obvious on-field consequences — defenders could tee off — the Bears were establishing a troubling precedent in allowing a rookie to tell them exactly what to do. Veterans couldn’t believe it. “Are you shitting me?” one receiver asked a coach.

GoLongTD.com (reporting by Tyler Dunne)

Related: MN Vikings Picks, Predictions vs Bears – Local Reporters vs National Media

It sounds like Tyler got most of his information from the Bears’ former coaching staff, which was replaced by former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson & Co, and detail just how much disfunction was happening behind the scenes last year in Chicago.

It’s a must-read story that Minnesota Vikings fans should all go read, in order to understand where Williams’ development was at, prior to Ben Johnson taking over. If Caleb is good tonight, Ben might really be a genius. If not, the Bears franchise might be in trouble.

And that brings us back to the aforementioned Star Tribune beat writers, who were discussing Tyler’s piece on their Saturday evening episode of Access Vikings, a conversation that brought them back to Caleb Williams vs the Minnesota Vikings defense.

Minnesota Vikings defense salivating over Bears matchup

From the sounds of it, Brian Flores and “his group of dogs” already know exactly how this Monday night story ends, and it doesn’t bode well for last year’s No. 1 overall pick.

According to Andrew Krammer and Ben Goessling, Brian Flores and the boys are feeling downright cocky (my words not his) this week that — right in front of Bears fans fans and for the entire football world to see — they are going to eat Chicago’s sophomore QB alive.

Sounds like the Vikings defense plans on dismembering Bears QB Caleb Williams in front of the entire nation tonight… 👀🫣

Krammer: "I think Brian Flores and this group of, for lack of a better phrase, this group of dogs that he's got, that are just ready to pounce on Caleb… pic.twitter.com/k61sBcOWpI

— Minnesota Sports Fan (@realmnsportsfan) September 8, 2025

Krammer: “Chicago is under the microscope to start this game, in a prime time setting. First game with a new head coach, first game with this quarterback that needs to be your savior…I’m fascinated to see because they’re so talented.

We know they’re going to be well-coached this time based on what Ben Johnson did in Detroit. But Detroit and Jared Goff and Ben Johnson took some time to build what they did I just don’t think it’s going to look great, or it’s not going to look like a carbon copy or a microwaved version [of the 2024 Lions] in week one.

And I think Brian Flores and this group of, for lack of a better phrase, this group of dogs that he’s got, that are just ready to pounce on Caleb Williams. At a risk of sounding like a homer. I’m pretty excited to see what it looks like for this Vikings defense against a Chicago group that is still trying to find their footing.”

Goessling: “Yeah, we got the sense this week that um they’re feeling pretty good about what they may be able to do to affect Caleb Williams on Monday night. Yeah, that that sentiment came through pretty clearly this week.”

Access Vikings Podcast

Related: Vikings Asst. Turned Down Multiple Promotions; Would’ve Spurned More…

All of the confidence being displayed by the Vikings defense this week, as talked about between Goessling and Krammer, came before Dunne’s devastating story on Williams dropped. God help that kid if anyone on the Vikings’ front seven has read that story since… which they likely all have.

Feeling cocky yet, MN Vikings fans…?

I’m not sure you you are feeling, at this point on Monday afternoon. When this article was written, we were four hours away from the 7:15 pm CDT kickoff. I felt good about Minnesota’s chances tonight, even prior to watching Access Vikings.

But after realizing the confidence Brian Flores’ defense has coming into this game — not to mention the concerns floating around Chicago after the Williams article dropped at GoLongTD.com — I suddenly feel much better about how tonight’s NFC North divisional game will play out. And just for sticking around, you get a

Krammer: “Just all camp, all three of us watching this defense just get after it. And it’s tough. We’re sitting there going, “Okay, how much of this is the rookie or young QB in McCarthy versus this veteran laden defense?” But man, it didn’t matter if it was Ryan Kelly. It didn’t matter if it was Brian O’Neal out there. This defensive front was getting after guys.”

Goessling: And they were talking [smack] about it every single time they did it. I mean, that that group was playing with uh, to quote Tim Brewster, their chili was hot. So, they uh, you know, if you want to go bear hunting, you got to bring something to get the bear. You can’t go in with a pellet gun if you’re trying to get the bear. You want to get some, you got to bring some. And I think they’re going to bring some on Monday night.

Access Vikings Podcast

Karl-Anthony Towns, too, looked like a different guy, after leading the Dominican Republic international team. But most importantly, everyone from players to coaches to team executives seemed much more confident about year 2 of the Rudy Gobert experiment.

Minnesota Timberwolves turn slow start into reign of terror

But then… the season started and the Wolves jumped out to a (classic) disappointing 1-2 start that included an epic 2nd-half collapse vs Atlanta Hawks. And just like that, many of those once hopeful fans (I won’t name names) were crying one iteration or another of, “same old Wolves…”

Same old Wolves man… pic.twitter.com/49eUfjJZDQ

— Minnesota Sports Fan (@realmnsportsfan) October 31, 2023

But since that collapse vs the Hawks, the Minnesota Timberwolves are 3-0. They’ve won 4 of 5 and currently own the 4th seed in the Western Conference at 4-2 overall. Wait, it gets better.

Related: How to Stream Timberwolves and Wild Games with Bally Sports App Not Working

Two of the three wins during their streak have come at home vs the best teams from each conference. On Wednesday, they took down the 4-0 reigning NBA Champion Denver Nuggets. Then, on Monday night, the 5-0 Boston Celtics came to town and left with their first loss, as well.

Throw in a beat down of the Utah Jazz in between and it’s one of the best week-long stretches we have seen from the Wolves since Kevin Garnett left in 2004. That’s just as sad as it is impressive but facts are bitter-sweet sometimes.

Timberwolves defeat 5-0 Boston Celtics

The most impressive part about the Wolves win on Monday night might have been the mediocrity in which they played, offensively. Anthony Edwards was awesome again, carrying the team throughout the game whenever needed, finishing with 38 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists.

this man took the game over. 🤯

38 PTS / 9 REB / 7 AST / 1 STL pic.twitter.com/xqKrXuvZQe

— Minnesota Timberwolves (@Timberwolves) November 7, 2023

Karl-Anthony Towns embarrasses himself (again)

Karl-Anthony Towns regressed back to the worst version of himself. Not only was he flailing around and whining like a spoiled middle schooler, but he wasn’t producing offensively either. He fouled out in overtime and it was probably the best thing that could have happened to the Wolves because he was mentally checked out and dragging down the mentality of his team.

The selfishness he displays is mind boggling to watch sometimes, especially when all you hear from teammates is how much he just wants to make everyone happy. He ended the night with just as many turnovers as points and one of the worst overall box score lines of his career: 3/10 FG | 1/7 3PT | 7 PTS | 10 REB | 7 TO.

Jaden McDaniels, Anthony Edwards come through late

Jaden McDaniels couldn’t get himself going, on the offensive end either, until he and Edwards took over late. But man, when the Wolves needed someone to hit a big shot at the end of the 4th quarter and in OT, Jaden came through hitting a 3-pointer that tied the game 101-101, which was the score that went into overtime.

Related: Minnesota Timberwolves schedule 2023: TV, channel, and more

The extra 5 minute period was Ant’s show. He flipped the switch and, suddenly, it felt like every single shot that left his fingertips was going in. He shot 4 of 6 in OT, including two 3-pointers and scored 8 of the Wolves’ 13 points.

there. he. goes. 🐜🐜🐜 pic.twitter.com/ma6Mdiv35u

— Minnesota Timberwolves (@Timberwolves) November 7, 2023

It was pretty incredible to witness, especially when we as Wolves fans have literally never seen a superstar who has a late game gear even other NBA stars don’t have. Without a superstar, an NBA team cannot legitimately compete for a championship. But Anthony Edwards made it clear last night, the Timberwolves can check that off their list of needs.

Defense, defense, defense

But the story, through five games this season, has been the Minnesota Timberwolves’ unrelenting defense. That is not a sentence you normally read in a regular season blog about an NBA team but that’s the best way I can describe the way the Wolves bring it on that side of the floor.

That’s why they are winning all of these games, no matter the opponent or how efficient they are operating that night, offensively. Obviously, the sample size is small. But as of Tuesday morning, the Wolves rank 1st in both defensive efficiency rating and adjusted defensive efficiency rating, which is keeping their net efficiency ratings near the top of the league, despite very average offensive efficiency.

Rudy Gobert seems much more like the dominant defender we thought the Timberwolves were getting last year. Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels make for the best wing defending duo in the NBA and the team’s overall length makes it often impossible for opposing offenses to break down in the half court.

Their only issues, defensively, have come on the fast break. The entire team has to focus on getting back, after offensive possessions, because opponents have targeted that as the easiest way to score.

There’s no doubt Chris Finch wants this team’s identity to come from its defense, which I love. Offensive flow will come and go but, if you are always fighting on defense in the NBA, you have a chance to be in every game because most teams do not have much fight on that side of the floor until the postseason comes around.

Yes, the Minnesota Timberwolves are for real.

So, to answer the original question posted at the top of this blog: Yes, the Minnesota Timberwolves are for real. They have a budding superstar who has already proven he can close games and a defense that fights harder than most others in the league. That’s a recipe for a lot of regular season wins and a top-4 seed in the Western Conference.

Read all of our Minnesota Timberwolves blogs!

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

Could Kevin O’Connell have called smarter plays and managed the game better, as a whole? Of course. But the defense gave up 464 yards to the Lions’ offense. It was their 5th-straight game allowing over 400 yards, a franchise record.

It’s not just yards allowed where the Vikings’ defense struggles. They rank at or near the bottom of nearly every defensive metric on the internet. Classic, advanced, efficiency… it’s all bad.

The Vikings rank as follows:

???? 32nd in Total Yards Allowed
???? 32nd in Passing Yards Allowed
???? 27th in Yards per Rush
???? 27th in FG Kicking %

Sadly, none of that sounds like a team ready to make noise in the postseason.

— Dustin Baker (@DustBaker) December 12, 2022

The Vikings are allowing 9.23 Y/A playing off coverage this year—unsurprisingly, the worst rate in the NFL. You know what they say about the definition of insanity… pic.twitter.com/yRMofZSg8B

— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) December 12, 2022

Pressure is the problem

So what’s the underlying problem for the Minnesota Vikings defense? Well, there are plenty. But the most glaring issue goes back to the core of what makes a good defense in 2022. How much pressure can you get on the opposing quarterbacks?

Early on this season, the Vikings relied on their front 3-4 pass rushers to get that job done. That’s why ZaDarius Smith and Danielle Hunter rank at or near the top of the NFL in QB pressures with 70 (1st) and 49 (11th), respectively, according to PFF.

Send the blitz!

But recently, pressure has been harder to come by because opponents are stacking their protection packages against Hunter and Smith. To combat that extra attention, the Vikings are sending more blitzes.

Ed Donatell has sent blitzes just 17.3% of the time in 2022, good for 24th in the NFL. Against the Jets and Lions the last two weeks, however, that’s up to 32%.

The problem? It’s not working. Against the Jets, the Vikings defense managed just 15 total pressures, though they did hit the QB 7 times and sacked him once. Versus the Lions, the lack of total pressures (14) was more noticeable. Probably because they managed just 3 hits and 0 sacks on those pressures.

Well that's the thing. The Vikings blitzed on a season-high 31.7% of the snaps yesterday, but got cooked for 10/13/101/1 because they only created pressure on three of their 13 blitzes. https://t.co/hgvmIPcHEm

— Eric Thompson (@eric_j_thompson) December 12, 2022

Vikings blitzed a season-high 31.7% of the time vs. Jets. Season rate is at 19.9%, 8th-lowest in NFL. Asked DC Ed Donatell today how he considers whether to blitz, and got what I think is the most succinct summary we've heard of his defensive approach with this roster …

— Kevin Seifert (@SeifertESPN) December 8, 2022

Fixing the pass rush and finding a way to get more pressure on quarterbacks is what can most quickly turn the Minnesota Vikings defensive struggles around. It creates late downs with distance, turnovers and game-changing plays.

But if Ed Donatell is going to send pressure, he needs to make sure it gets home far more often. If not, the Vikings are better off keeping that extra defender in coverage. Or… finding a new defensive coordinator and/or play caller.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

Unfortunately, that’s not how things have panned out. Instead, Sullivan’s play in coverage has been abysmal. His 50.2 overall PFF grade is the worst of any Vikings player, both on offense and defense. And it’s only that high because his run defense and pass rush snaps grade in the 70’s.

Chandon’s PFF coverage grade (the only grade that really matters) is a 42.2, which is what happens when you allow 24 catches on 29 targets like he has.

Target Chandon Sullivan to Beat Vikings

If you want to know how to beat the Minnesota Vikings through the air, look to the slot. Chandon Sullivan has allowed 347 yards in coverage already this season. Good for 14.5 yards per reception, easily the highest of Sullivan’s career. That will happen when you allow an 82.8 completion percentage and 128.0 QB rating, when targeted.

The Vikings’ defense has been a problem all season. They’ve been able to keep teams off the scoreboard, ranking 19th in total points allowed. But the yardage they’re giving up, 4th-most in the NFL (2,307), is not tenable long term.

So if there is any defensive position that Kwesi could look to upgrade, as the trade deadline approaches, it’s slot CB to replace Chandon Sullivan. Would it fix all of the defense’s issues? No, but it would be the best place to start.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

They found a way to get Danielle Hunter back on roster, added Za’Darius Smith on the other EDGE and re-upped with Patrick Peterson. But that wasn’t all. Let’s take a look at a very turned over defensive depth chart that is guaranteed to change more before the draft later this month. You can find the pre-draft offensive depth chart HERE.

Vikings free agency spending so far (total dollars):

Defense – $80,380,000
Offense – $7,652,500

— Sean Borman (@SeanBormanNFL) March 31, 2022

Defensive Line

• LDE: Harrison Phillips — Kenny Willekes
• NT: Dalvin Tomlinson — Armon Watts, James Lynch
• RDE: Jaylen Twyman OR Janarius Robinson OR James Lynch

The Vikings have a lot left to fix on their defensive line. They don’t want to go into training camp deciding between Jaylen Twyman, Janarius Robinson (neither have played an NFL snap) or James Lynch as one of their 3-4 defensive ends. So look for Kwesi to add depth at all DL positions when possible but, he needs to find another starting defensive end before the season rolls around, too.

The Vikings have been tied to free agents like Akiem Hicks but money is obviously an issue. How early could they go with a defensive lineman in the draft? Of course, there are candidates projected to go on day one but, if not, they’ll be trying to upgrade the front-3 by the end of day two, for sure.

Outside Linebackers

• WLB: Danielle Hunter — Chazz Surratt
• SLB: Za’Darius Smith — DJ Wonnumm

Heading into the offseason, EDGE rushers were right up there with the cornerback group, as the biggest concern for the Minnesota Vikings defensive depth chart. Danielle Hunter’s status on the team was up in the air and they, quite literally, didn’t have anyone else. But Kwesi & Co knew, in today’s NFL, their undermanned defense wouldn’t stand a chance without requisite QB pressure.

So, they moved some money around on Hunter’s deal, something he didn’t have a say in, locking him up for 2022 and 2023. Then, they found a way to land former Packer All-Pro, Za’Darius Smith in free agency. Just like that, the Vikings have one of the scariest EDGE duos in the NFL… if they can stay on the field. Hunter has played in just seven games during the last two seasons and Za’Darius Smith missed almost all of 2021, after back surgery. And depth, as with much of the roster, is a problem.

Za’Darius Smith: professional sack celebrator

Happy birthday to the @packers Pro Bowl DE, @TheRealZSmith! ???? pic.twitter.com/E9DVZEY3Lt

— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2020

Here are all four of Danielle Hunter’s sacks through the first two weeks of the year: pic.twitter.com/ZNYqt6GLIW

— Nick Olson (@NickOlsonNFL) September 22, 2021

Inside Linebackers

• LILB: Eric Kendricks — Troy Dye
• RILB: Jordan Hicks — Blake Lynch

The Vikings will pay three starting 3-4 inside linebackers during the 2022 season, but just two will play on the team. Anthony Barr won’t be on the field but he will count nearly $10 million against the cap. That’s way more than his replacement, Jordan Hicks, who will make just $3.5M.

Meanwhile, there are some questions about how effective Eric Kendricks will be in a 3-4 base defense, especially if the Vikings can’t further upgrade the defensive line in front of him. But Kendricks, a former 2nd round draft pick, has consistently exceeded expectations at every level of his football career. We need to hope that’s the case again.

Cornerback

• CB1: Patrick Peterson — Harrison Hand OR Nate Hairston
• CB2: Cameron Dantzler — Kris Boyd
• SLOT: Chandon Sullivan

The Minnesota Vikings were able to lock Patrick Peterson up for a very team-friendly $3.25M against the 2022 salary cap. He’s the only proven asset on the CB depth chart, and he’s past his prime. Still, he will hold his own. We can’t guarantee the same for Cam Dantzler, though he’s shown some promise in his first two seasons, or newly acquired Chandon Sullivan.

Vikings CB situation as of today:

Out of 129 qualified CBs last season, Patrick Peterson graded 63rd overall (almost exactly avg), per @PFF

Cam Dantzler, by the way, graded 19th — and 1st (!!) in run defense.

Chandon Sullivan bad vs. run, serviceable in slot coverage.

— Phil Mackey ???? (@PhilMackey) March 31, 2022

That’s why the Vikings are expected to heavily consider cornerback with their #12 overall draft pick later this month. Most draft analysts agree that Sauce Gardner — Cincinnati (unlikely), Trent McDuffie — Washington (more likely) or Derek Stingley Jr — LSU (more likely) would all be upgrades over Dantzler and would be perfect targets for Kwesi & Co, when they go “On the Clock” April 28.

Safety

• SS: Harrison Smith
• FS: Camryn Bynum — Josh Metellus OR Miles Dorn

There isn’t much to say about the safeties. Harrison Smith is still a menace and Cam Bynum showed a lot of promise as a rookie. Still, don’t be surprised if they find an upgrade to go next to Smith, before games matter in September. If the right guy comes along, at the right price, the Vikings would pounce. If not, I’m fine with seeing what Bynum has on a longer-term trial run.

What’s next?

Kwesi has a few more million to work with but needs money available for his first draft class too. The only contract where the Vikings could go to find money, would be Eric Kendricks’. If the right piece came along, that’s where Rob Brzezinski would probably look. But it’s clear, once again, that the Minnesota Vikings will draft a lot of defensive players between April 28 and April 30. Nice to see some things never change.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

But the Wolves aren’t like other organizations around the league. Outside of one 8th-seed appearance with Jimmy Butler that wasn’t worth the trouble it brought, many basketball fans in Minnesota have never seen their pro team in the playoffs (’03-’04). Could that change this season? Streaks are made to be broken, right?

With their latest run, Chris Finch and the Timberwolves have climbed into the 8th position in the West. That would place them into the NBA Playoffs play-in tournament, if that’s where they were to finish. To avoid the play-in, Minnesota would have to reach the 6th-seed or higher. As of Monday afternoon, they sit just .5 games back of Denver, who currently occupies that final sure-playoff position. Most of the West is up for grabs as we inch closer to the halfway point of the season.

Latest NBA West standings. The Wolves sit 0.5 games from the 6th seed, which is where they’d have to finish in order to avoid the play-in tournament. pic.twitter.com/YrN4zYEdMh

— Minnesota Sports Fan (@realmnsportsfan) December 20, 2021

How good are they? – Defense

While the numbers on each side of the ball tell a sometimes confusing story, one thing becomes clear when you review the 2021-22 Minnesota Timberwolves on paper. They are carried by their defense. It was the surprise development through 15 games and it’s continued to be the storyline after 30.

The Wolves are ranked 22nd in offensive rating and 11th in defensive rating. But what’s continued to stand out both in the numbers and while watching is the hustle and hard work. That’s what carries them to victory most nights, along with clutch shooting from one of the big three late in contests.

And if an opponent comes into a matchup lacking that same type of energy, the Wolves will often run them out of the gym. They’ve done it twice this season to the LeBron James led Lakers and the separation in energy last week was palpable.

We own the Lakers. #Timberwolves pic.twitter.com/PmFxKQLy47

— Hoops Maven (@HoopsMavenHM) December 18, 2021

The stats on Basketball-Reference double down on Minnesota being one of the hardest working teams in the NBA.

They force the most turnovers in the entire NBA, including the 4th most steals. They’re terrible on the defensive glass because they’re undersized but when you flip the floor, they’re 12.7 offensive rebounds per game ranks 2nd.

Chris Finch needs to get his defense to keep up their intensity and aggressivenes without fouling, however. They rank 30th in the NBA in fouls committed and that’s led to opponents attempting the most free throws in the league against them. That’s why, even with the improvements on defense, they’re giving up the 11th-most points in the league.

Offense

Karl-Anthony Towns has been the only consistent threat offensively and, at times, has put the Timberwolves on his back when needed. That’s a good thing because KAT will need to continue that killer attitude through 82 games if the Wolves are going to finish with a winning record.

But even with a new and improved Towns, Minnesota ranks near the bottom of the league in many offensive categories, including FG% (27th), 3P% (20th), eFG% (25th) and OFF RTG (22nd). But unlike their improvements on defense, I see these offensive deficiencies as a temporary problem.

There’s too much talent for them to continue struggling so much on that end of the floor and players have made it clear that Finch’s focus in the offseason was on improving their defense. Most of the competitive drills featured rebounding and defensive-based scoring opportunities.

They didn’t put in the time necessary this offseason, offensively, to get comfortable in a brand new system. The head coach chose to learn his flow-style offense on the fly, hoping the immense amount of physical talent and built up experience would push them through while they figured it out.

Can they keep winning?

As long as they continue to give effort on the offensive boards and on the defensive side of the floor, I think Finch’s decision to push defensive focus will eventually pay off for the Wolves as the year goes on. The offense will continue to get better.

And in a wide open Wester Conference, that should lead to more wins. It’s been a long time since we’ve seen the Minnesota Timberwolves fight for 82 games but if they do, there’s no reason they shouldn’t finish above .500 and smack-dab in the middle of the playoff race.

The upcoming schedule has some good teams on it, just like anyone’s, but there are a lot of opportunities for Minnesota as well. If they can play well into the All-Star break and stay healthy, it could be a fun spring. Timberwolves fans are clearly bought in already, buying tickets to Target Center at one of the healthiest rates in the NBA.

Wolves really need to capitalize on their upcoming schedule. Including tonight 17 of their next 20 games (two against the Jazz, one against the Warriors) should be winnable. Returning to .500 by mid-January should be the goal at minimum. pic.twitter.com/Fj6UybQmAk

— Lucas Seehafer (@seehafer_) December 13, 2021

According to Pro Basketball Reference, the Minnesota Timberwolves have hosted the 8th most fans in the entire NBA this season. pic.twitter.com/r8mBF7lhA4

— Minnesota Sports Fan (@realmnsportsfan) December 20, 2021

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

And unlike what we have seen since the Karl-Anthony Towns era began, this team has a losing record because they can’t function offensively. Any wins or close games can be attributed to a new attitude, effort and execution on the defensive side of the ball.

Numbers (via NBA.com) tell the story.

Stop rubbing your eyes. The statistical rankings above, which are correct, won’t change. What you see is real. The Minnesota Timberwolves rank in the top-half (usually better) in just about every defensive metric that matters in basketball. Offensively, you see the struggle is very real.

While it’s probably not what Chris Finch foreshadowed when he and the Wolves coaching staff put so much emphasis on defense in the offseason, I’d bet they’d keep it over the alternative. Yes, through 14 games the offensive numbers are horrid. But, it’s impossible they continue to be that poor.

Better rebounding would help both the defense and offense because the Wolves rank near the bottom of the NBA in just about every rebounding category this season. If nothing else, they need to find a way to limit possessions for the other team by rebounding on the defensive side. That would lead to even better numbers on defense and easier opportunities to improve where they are offensively.

Too much talent

Between Anthony Edwards, Karl Towns, D’Angelo Russell and Chris Finch (who wasn’t hired for his defensive prowess) the Timberwolves have too much offensive talent to keep caged up forever.

It’s just a matter of time before all of that offensive firepower gets aimed and fires synchronously, with the proper igniter. Until then, continued emphasis and effort on defense will keep Minnesota in a lot of fun-to-watch games.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Halfcourt Offense: 0.883 PPP / 25th
Transition Offense: 0.958 PPP / 28th
Overall Offense: 0.899 PPP / 26th

Halfcourt Defense: 0.904 PPP / 7th
Transition Defense: 0.976 PPP / 1st
Overall Defense: 0.926 PPP / 6th

Via Synergy Sports Technology pic.twitter.com/VbkJcX1b8v

— Jackson Lloyd (@JLloyd952) November 18, 2021

And if they can continue to play solid defensively, even when the offensive pendulum swings back in their favor, then we might actually see what the ceiling might be for this era of Minnesota Timberwolves

Back-to-back

The Wolves got a win on Wednesday night over the Sacramento Kings and play from either team left much to be desired. But Anthony Edwards got hot late and helped will his team to a much-needed victory. On Thursday, they get another very winnable game at home against the San Antonio Spurs.

Both the Kings and Spurs are teams who the Timberwolves will have to beat as the season progresses because they currently project as competitors for the play-in playoff tournament. Minnesota has struggled with back-to-back games again this season and have put extra emphasis on winning tonight’s matchup because of it.

Thursday night is a maturity test for a Wolves squad that claims it’s ready to take serious steps forward as a team in 2021-22.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

Or maybe not?

Through three games, the offense has looked stuck in the mud. Especially whenever Towns, Edwards or Russell has touched the ball. The aforementioned “big three” has looked more like the “pig three”. The ball stops moving when they get it. Thus, the flow just hasn’t been there.

Anthony Edwards went off on this exact subject after their first loss of the season on Monday, showing leadership qualities we haven’t seen in this town for awhile. Finch agrees, saying this about the Wolves’ offensive struggles.

Chris Finch on the Wolves struggles on offense through the first three games:

“It’s still hard to watch. There’s not a lot of rhythm out there. Guys are trying to do too much by themselves, not letting the ball do the work. Things we’ve talked about, getting that flow.”

— Dane Moore (@DaneMooreNBA) October 26, 2021

By the numbers

The offensive numbers tell the same story as what Timberwolves fans, coaches and media have seen with their eyes. Minnesota ranks near the bottom in most of the offensive statistical categories that anyone cares about. To make matters worse, the defenses they’ve gone up against (Rockets and Pelicans [x2]) won’t be remembered for their world-beating defensive acumen.

• FG%: 41% (25th)
• 3P%: 34.1% (17th)
• TS%: 52.5% (24th)
• Offensive Rating: 100.6 (23rd)

This offense may have been projected as a top-10 unit but they’ve opened the new season looking bottom-10. There’s some hope though, if you’re into that sort of thing.

It’s early.

Yes, all of these games are important and, when the dust settles, making the playoffs could very well be decided by one or two wins. But it’s highly unlikely that these offensive problems continue for the Minnesota Timberwolves. Not with the offensive fire power they possess.

The shooting issues should fix themselves

There’s a reason why the 2021-22 Chris Finch coached Minnesota Timberwolves were expected to play offense at a high level. D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, and Patrick Beverley combine for a career 3PT% of 37.5%. D’Angelo Russell’s 36% is “dragging that down”.

Shooting 35% from deep is the floor for being a good NBA team or decent NBA shooter. The best shoot over 40%. DLo won’t continue his 30% from distance. Beasley, who’s a 39% career 3-pt shooter, won’t continue with his currently sad 17%. The offensive pendulum, as a whole, will swing back and the law of averages will kick in at some point. It’s just science.

More Wolves shooting numbers:
-They rank 20th (47.8% efg%) during open shots; 33.3% 3fg%
-They rank 26th (50.7% efg%) during wide-open shots; 33.3% 3fg%
-They rank 30th (47.7% efg%) on catch and shoot shot attempts; 30.3% 3fg%

— Lucas Seehafer (@seehafer_) October 26, 2021

Defense is keeping the Wolves alive

The offensive struggles have been buried a bit through three games because of how good the Minnesota Timberwolves have been on the defensive end. Yes, you read that right. Improving on defense was this team’s number one focus in the offseason and, so far, they’ve been noticeably better.

Defense is the reason the Wolves are 2-1 and the numbers and advanced metrics tell the story. Led by Okogie, McDaniels, Beverley and, at times, Anthony Edwards, the defense has been flying all over the place and forcing a ton of turnovers. It’s been jaw-dropping at times.

• Allowed FG%: 41.7% (4th)
• Allowed 3P%: 29.1% (4th)
• Turnover %: 20.1% (1st)
• Defensive Rating: 97.8 (3rd)

It’s even possible that the Wolves have focused so much on defense, leading up to the season, that it’s taken away from their offense early on. Take a look at this quote from Josh Okogie. He claims that most of the Wolves’ drills employ defensive scoring systems, not offense, and that 80% of drills are defensive.

Josh Okogie on a Timberwolves training camp that has been all about defense:

"Most of our drills, you score on defense. You can’t even score on offense. Seventy to 80 percent of the drills are defensive drills anyway. I don’t think we’ve spent any time really on offense."

— Dane Moore (@DaneMooreNBA) October 4, 2021

Rebounding? What Rebounding?

Teams who are really good on defense can often survive poor shooting performances but not if they can’t rebound. If there’s been a struggle more real than shooting for this Timberwolves team, it’s been on the glass. Unlike the offensive struggles, however, this was a weakness that many foresaw entering play.

Minnesota doesn’t appear, on paper, to have the personnel it takes to be a good rebounding team and that’s what we’ve seen play out on the hardwood as well.

Timberwolves defense:

3rd in Pts/Possession in half court D
3rd in Pts/Possession in transition D

28th in O-REB% at 31.9%
30th in 2nd chance points allowed

It’s gotta be so discouraging to play such great defense that results in an offensive rebound so often pic.twitter.com/0FeDVyWi4j

— Cooper (@CoopCarlson) October 26, 2021

If personnel tells the story, rebounding will probably be an issue all season for the Minnesota Timberwolves. Shooting, however, should fix itself.

In the end, we’ll see what reality has in store.

Cooper Carlson | Minnesota Sports Fan

Before we get into the numbers and compare them to what we saw in 2020, let’s discuss what’s changed personnel-wise since then. In the offseason, PJ Fleck knew he needed to bulk up the middle of his defense, which often parted like it was the biblical Red Sea and opposing backs were Noah.

The Reinforcements

PJ’s staff started their search for reinforcements in Texas, where they picked up grad-transfer linebacker, Jack Gibbens, from FCS Abilene Christian. Gibbens has been the standout of the new additions and currently leads the Gophers in tackles, passes defended and forced fumbles.

Then, they went east to Clemson, SC and picked up a multi National Championship winning defensive tackle, Nyles Pinckney. And to complete their defensive upgrades, Fleck’s staff went up one state and grabbed another defensive tackle, Val Martin, out of NC State.

PJ Fleck on the podium was very confident that his defense would not face common early hiccups this season. Mostly due to a large amount of returning players such as Boye Mafe and a slew of transfers like Nyles Pinckney (DL from Clemson).#Gophers #BigTen #B1GMediaDay pic.twitter.com/qemu901FKU

— Matt Kennedy (@matthewhkennedy) July 22, 2021

Those additions, along with a lot of growing up on their own roster, led to the product we’re seeing now, which is something completely different than what was on the field last season.

How different? Well, the Minnesota Gophers ranked near the bottom of the NCAA in all defensive rushing categories last year. You needed triple digit rankings to find them.

In 2021, they’re a nationally top-5 rush defense after seven weeks, which is how long the 2020 season was. It’s a turnaround that not even the most optimistic would have seen coming. Joe Rossi looks like a mad scientist who was given the perfect formula during the offseason.

Even while their pass defense is technically worse, improvement against the run has pushed defensive totals way down too. pic.twitter.com/0cOh6ot2ax

— Minnesota Sports Fan (@realmnsportsfan) October 24, 2021

Sustainable?

With over half of the season over and the best opposing offenses behind them, I can’t imagine the defensive metrics fall that much over the last five games. Purdue and Ohio State have easily the most explosive offenses out of any opponent on the 2021 Minnesota schedule. Iowa and Wisconsin usually run the ball really well but their teams are so pass inept that it’s made their rush offense much easier to game plan against.

As long as they continue playing well, there’s no end in sight for this suffocating rush defense.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

Meanwhile, PJ Fleck’s Minnesota Gophers entered trying to show the conference that whatever happened in their loss to FCS Bowling Green three weeks ago, was just a fluke. Oh, and that “sloganeering” works.

After Mohamed Ibrahim won the coin toss, making him 5-0 at midfield this season, a different Minnesota offense took the field than what we’ve seen so far this year. Trey Potts joined Mo on the season-ending injury list after a freak injury vs Purdue landed him in an Indiana hospital for much of the bye week.

So without their top two running backs, PJ Fleck and Mike Sanford turned to their 5th-year quarterback, Tanner Morgan, hoping he could throw them to victory against the Huskers.

Different Half, Different Tanner

In the first half, Tanner rewarded the offensive aggressiveness by tossing the ball around like a Heisman candidate, completing 93% of his passes for 171 yards and 2 touchdowns. Both TD’s were great throws and even better catches by Michael Brown-Stephens and, especially, Chris Autman-Bell. Minnesota entered half time with a 21-9 lead.

Tanner Morgan with an absolute DIME for a Minnesota TD ???? #CFB pic.twitter.com/QAYvtpIfCu

— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 16, 2021

They call @chrisautmanbell ????, because he has really strong hands.

The @GopherFootball WR, already having a career day, proves it ⬇️. pic.twitter.com/mLC2f4qd5t

— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) October 16, 2021

The Gophers looked ready to feed Morgan when they came out of the locker room for half two. Tanner, however, wasn’t the same guy that we saw for the first 30 minutes. After completing 15 of 16 passes in the first half, Tanner threw two-straight interceptions to start the second.

The latter of those two picks turned into a Nebraska touchdown that put the Gophers in serious trouble of losing the lead. But when one part of your team struggles, you need others to pick them up. That’s exactly what happened on Saturday. Morgan and a suddenly stagnant Minnesota offense punted four times in a row after his two second half picks.

After such a hot 1st half, Morgan and the offense were making a call to the bullpen. They needed help.

Defense saves victory

The Minnesota Gopher defense has been pretty good all season, especially against the run. But to win Saturday, PJ Fleck needed even more from that side of the field. And he got it.

While they did plenty of bending, the defense never broke. Nebraska racked up a respectable 377 yards of total offense, but that fell far short of the 493 yards they averaged entering the weekend (2nd in Big Ten). The difference was how Minnesota played QB Adrian Martinez, who led the Huskers in run and pass yards entering Saturday.

Martinez made some nice throws but was never able to get comfortable, completing just 55% of his passes. Part of his uneasiness in the pocket was his inability to run. The Husker leading rusher was held to -17 yards on the ground Saturday.

And when the Gophers really needed a big play from their defense, they got it. Multiple times. Most notably, they held up at the goal line on 4th down in the 3rd quarter, with the lead at risk. Then, they forced a safety in the 4th quarter to help put the game away.

????@GopherFootball stuffs Nebraska on 4th-and-goal to keep the lead. pic.twitter.com/otMVCgxorL

— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) October 16, 2021

No, sir. I do not like this safety dance. ????????????????????????????#Huskers #Nebraska #AdrianMartinez pic.twitter.com/7ubMXn0rdT

— Scott Maier (@samaier) October 16, 2021

Teammate stuff

Sanford, Morgan and the Minnesota offense may have built the lead needed for victory. But Joe Rossi, Mariano Sori-Marin and Co saved it in the second. People helping people. Beautiful stuff.

Now, (3-5) Nebraska will face Purdue before ending with one of the most difficult remaining schedules in the nation. The (4-2) Minnesota Gophers, on the other hand, will be favored in their next three games against Maryland, @ Northwestern and Illinois, before heading south to play the Big Ten West favorite, #2 Iowa Hawkeyes about a month from now.

Nothing is guaranteed in college football… except Scott Frost losing to PJ Fleck.

#Gophers harvest the win! pic.twitter.com/HL2JazBENU

— Minnesota Football (@GopherFootball) October 16, 2021

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan