Minnesota Vikings Next Franchise QB Odds, Following Kirk Cousins’ Departure

By Ezra Greenman |

Mar 12, 2024

jj mccarthy, minnesota vikings — Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

With Kirk Cousins headed to Atlanta, the Minnesota Vikings are fully expected to spend their 1st round pick in the upcoming draft on their new franchise quarterback, whether that means staying at No. 11 overall or (more likely) moving up somewhere in the top ten.

The NFL draft kicks off on April 25th, leaving the Vikings front office a little over a month to decide their strategy. Will they target a guy that they are forced to trade up for or will they like one of the tier-two QBs, who will likely be available to them at No. 11, possibly later if they want to trade back?

This draft is seen as one of the best quarterback drafts in recent history and should present head coach Kevin O’Connell and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah numerous possibilities, depending on who they like. No matter which way you slice it, though, the 2024 NFL Draft will be one of the most important drafts in franchise history.

Minnesota Vikings Next QB Odds

We know the Vikings are going to select a quarterback early. The uncertainty lies in which quarterbacks they like and which they are comfortable entrusting the future of the organization with. The draft class features several talented quarterbacks, four of which are currently expected to go in the top-10: Caleb Williams (USC), Drake Maye (UNC), Jayden Daniels (LSU) and J.J. McCarthy (Michigan).

JJ McCarthy’s National Championship Season tape at Michigan 🔥〽️pic.twitter.com/65gjRCfDD0
— College Football Report (@CFBRep) March 12, 2024

The two quarterbacks currently viewed by draft experts as 2nd tier could go anywhere outside of the top-10, depending on how much the QB hungry teams (like the Vikings) value them one month from now. Those two guys are Bo Nix (Oregon) and Michael Penix Jr. (Washington).

Whether Minnesota targets one of those top guys or decide to sit back and wait for Nix or Penix… there is a lot of risk involved. There’s no way to know which route the Vikings will travel. But one worthy indicator of what they might do comes in sportsbooks like DraftKings, which currently has Minnesota as a top-3 favorite to land all of the above QBs mentioned, outside of Drake Maye, who’s been falling down boards in recent days, leading his odds to be pulled until those rumors settle.

J.J. McCarthy: +150 (1st)
Bo Nix: +250 (2nd)
Michael Penix Jr.: +300 (T-1st)
Jayden Daniels: +600 (3rd)
Caleb Williams: +1500 (3rd)
Drake Maye: N/A

Odds via DraftKings

J.J. McCarthy is currently the favorite, of the top QBs, to be taken by the Vikings. The odds for McCarthy, Nix and Penix Jr, however, are all within 150 points of each other, meaning it’s still very possible that their next quarterback ends up being any of those three.

All options are still worth plus money, though, meaning the odds are stacked against you no matter who you bet on. That’s why the sportsbooks are offering you more money, if you win, than they will take from you, if you lose. For example, if you bet $100 on McCarthy, you would win $150. Bet $100 on Bo Nix tonight and you win $250, if he ends up being drafted by the Vikings, etc.

Michael Penix Jr. is listed at +300 odds, which makes him less likely than either Nix or McCarthy but the Vikings are still tied as the most likely team to take him (Seattle is also +300). This again suggests that various outcomes are still possible.

Fuck it, let’s watch some Michael Penix Sugar Bowl highlights. Forever a legend pic.twitter.com/NWzyqhqvUa https://t.co/5R4e5iSdhy
— Mariners World Series (DAWGS BY A MILLION 😈) (@theREALkrini) January 13, 2024

The former Heisman winnerJayden Daniels has odds of +600 to land with the Vikings, making him the least likely of the five listed. The Commanders are favored to land him at -130 odds. Minnesota is +1500 to land Williams, meaning that is highly unlikely to happen… though they do have the 3rd best odds.

What to Expect in the 2024 NFL Draft

These odds confirm what we already expected to happen once Kirk Cousins left town. The Minnesota Vikings are drafting a quarterback next month. It’s just a matter of which one they prefer and how much draft capital they’re willing to give up to secure their guy.

While there may be a quarterback available at the 11th pick, there’s a chance they might not be satisfied with that option. The Vikings are likely to assess each team’s position on the draft board to determine where they need to be to select their preferred quarterback. This draft could be super exciting, and huge for the future of the organization.