The Minnesota Vikings Are Not Talking Contract Extension with Sam Darnold

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Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
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Even the most optimistic Minnesota Vikings fans couldn’t have predicted the success that Sam Darnold has had this season. Darnold was brought in to replace Kirk Cousins, who signed a deal worth up to $180 million with Atlanta this past off-season.

Darnold signed a one-year deal worth $10 million and was expected to hold the job down until rookie first-round quarterback J.J. McCarthy was ready to take over. It was a low-risk decision to bring in Darnold, the third-overall pick of the 2018 NFL draft.

He never reached the pre-draft expectations set upon him coming out of USC with the New York Jets. They dealt him to the Carolina Panthers after three seasons. After two inconsistent years in Carolina, Darnold joined the San Francisco 49ers in 2023, backing up Brock Purdy and receiving top-level coaching from Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan.

With proper coaching, it was expected that the Minnesota Vikings could squeeze out any potential Darnold still had after five shaky seasons in New York and Carolina. But when it was reported that McCarthy would miss the season with a meniscus injury, many wondered just how long Darnold could succeed before reverting to his old ways.

The Minnesota Vikings and Sam Darnold haven’t discussed a long-term contract

Ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Falcons, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that Darnold and the Vikings hadn’t engaged in any talks regarding a long-term contract. This would mean that Darnold would be a free agent following the season and would likely set the stage for McCarthy to take over in 2025 as the team’s starting quarterback.

The Minnesota Vikings probably wouldn’t want to sign another veteran QB to a long-term contract after getting out of Cousins’ contract. Add in that Kevin O’Connell has gotten the most out of almost every quarterback that he’s worked with in Minnesota, and all signs point to the Vikings being content with letting Darnold walk.

Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield’s contracts could be comparable to Darnold’s

Darnold wouldn’t be the first quarterback to sign a big contract after a disappointing start to his career. Like Schultz speculated, Darnold could sign a contract similar to what Baker Mayfield did with Tampa Bay last spring.

Mayfield signed a 3-year/$100 million contract after throwing for 4,044 yards, 28 touchdowns, and only 10 interceptions in 2023. He led the Buccaneers to an upset win over the Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card round of the playoffs before the Detroit Lions ended their run one week later.

All of this aligns with what Fox Sports insider Jordan Schultz tweeted on Saturday night. He told Colin Cowherd on The Herd that he believes that Darnold will be commanding a high salary this off-season.

“I think it’s going to be extremely difficult for Minnesota to retain him, because of the year he’s had. In my opinion, he’s probably going to garner somewhere along the lines of what Baker Mayfield got, 3 years, $100 million, which is probably fair, considering his age. He’s still pretty young, and because of what he’s shown on tape this year.”

FOX Sports NFL Insider Jordan Schultz on The Herd w/Colin Cowherd

Through 12 games, Darnold has put up similar numbers to Mayfield did in 2023. Heading into Sunday’s matchup against the Falcons, Darnold has thrown for 2,952 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions with five games still to play. That’s not including any potential playoff games where prospective teams get to see Darnold on the biggest stage.

Geno Smith is another recent Sam Darnold free agent comp

Per Schultz reporting, Darnold’s contract numbers will likely fall somewhere between what Mayfield and Smith signed. Mayfield was heading into his age 29 season when he signed his deal. But he had already reached the playoffs with the Cleveland Browns in 2020, showing he could be a capable quarterback in the right situation.

Seattle’s Geno Smith, a former second-round pick, didn’t break out until his tenth season when he threw for 4,282 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions in 2022. He was rewarded with a 3-year/$75 million deal after the season.

Sam Darnold : Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings
Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

Smith was heading into his age 33 season when he signed his contract. His early playing career more closely resembles Darnold’s. But if Darnold can stack playoff success on top of what he’s shown through 12 games, he will easily surpass Smith’s contract.

Darnold will be just 28 years old for most of the 2025 season. Although he won’t have the luxury of a coaching staff having experience with him before the extension like Mayfield did, Darnold’s two years with Shanahan in San Fran and KOC with the Minnesota Vikings, could convince teams that he’s a new quarterback moving forward.

Related: Minnesota Vikings Have Been Trying to Extend Byron Murphy Jr

Expect his contract to be closer to Mayfield’s, possibly surpassing it with a playoff run. But no matter what the contract looks like, Darnold likely won’t be receiving it from the Minnesota Vikings.

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