Initial MN Twins 2026 ZiPS Projections Revealed

Every offseason the name of the game becomes projection systems. Major League Baseball seasons are a journey, not a race. The reality is that most every team (sorry Chicago) will win 60 games and lose 60 games. It’s what happens with the other 60 that determines your fate.

Last season the Minnesota Twins finished with an ugly 70-92 record. They aren’t expected to add significantly to the payroll, but are hoping that new manager Derek Shelton can right the ship.

Suggesting they could be a near-.500 team in a down AL Central is fair, and that’s exactly what Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projection system sees.

Minnesota Twins called average for 2026

There is plenty of offseason left, and while we shouldn’t be expecting earth-shattering moves from the Minnesota Twins, they will certainly do more. Josh Bell was a start in free agency, and the bullpen still needs plenty of help. Right now though, a .500 record looks like the sweet spot.

The easiest thing for people to do is set this past season as a baseline and understand that this team isn’t going to be much better in 2026. But using last season’s record as a baseline is generally a poor idea, as there’s a good argument that a lot of the 2025 Twins underperformed their actual ability. It’s the same kind of shortcut reasoning that caused people to underrate the Blue Jays going into this season, assuming that the Jays had to build up from their actual 74-win total in 2024 rather than from something closer to 81-83 wins, which was about Toronto’s true talent level. The 2025 Twins were better than a 70-92 team, but they do have some problems with their offense that they may or may not address between now and next season. If the season started today, the Twins look like a roughly .500 team, with their expected win total somewhere in the 78-84 range, but they’re close enough to good that if they were to hit their upside scenario, they could be an interesting contender. 

Dan Szymborski

There is a lot to unpack with the 2026 Minnesota Twins. The reality is that they aren’t likely to be a juggernaut, but they don’t need to be a doormat either. Derek Falvey loves nothing more than to incrementally increase his chances at winning on the fringes.

Thankfully the front office has shown an aptitude to assemble strong, and cheap, bullpens. That’s something that needs to still take place this offseason.

The lineup is in a weird spot. There is a glut of left fielders, and even more that are left-handed. ZiPS is not at all high on Brooks Lee (0.5 fWAR projection) and view him as a lesser player than Kody Clemens or even backup catcher Alex Jackson. His 79 OPS+ and .236/.285/.370 slash line last season was a nightmare. Minnesota can’t afford for their new starting shortstop to be tapped out with that production.

On the flip side, the projection system loves itself some prospects. Both Kaelen Culpepper (1.9 fWAR) and Emmanuel Rodriguez (1.3 fWAR) are seen favorably. Both could get to the majors quickly this year, and infusing the lineup with young talent would not be a bad thing.

Starting pitching hits the mark for MN Twins

Not trading Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez is the most straightforward way for the MN Twins to compete. They spearhead a strong starting rotation, and both are viable top arms. ZiPS loves that duo, and the arms behind them are capable of quality as well.

Keeping Ryan and López, if that’s what the Twins actually plan to do, is a pretty big deal. With those two at the top, Minnesota would have a legitimate playoff-caliber rotation. Bailey Ober’s history is better than his 2025 performance, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to see him as a fine mid-rotation starter, and ZiPS has always been stanning for Zebby Matthews. Simeon Woods Richardson, Taj Bradley, and Mick Abel all get highly useful projections from ZiPS, and the computer really likes the organization’s minor league depth.

Dan Szymborski

Zebby Matthews and his 3.93 ERA is projected as the Twins third-best starter. That’s not at all out of the realm of possibility this year, and David Festa could be a candidate to move into the bullpen. Bailey Ober being something other than a dumpster fire would be a nice bounce-back as well.

Interestingly both Lopez and Ryan got pitcher comps of Mike Mussina. That’s not a bad place to draw off of considering the Hall of Fame candidacy the former starter possesed.

While uninspiring, the MN Twins are not so far from relevance. A couple of shrewd additions will push the needle forward.