MN Twins Ready to Move on From Former 1st Round Pick?

The Minnesota Twins did plenty of shuffling at the trade deadline. They moved a whopping 11 players, and 10 from the major league roster. Although the focus was on impending free agents, they did move some team-controlled talent as well.

It did seem possible that Derek Falvey may find now as the time to move some afterthoughts and further shake up the core. That could have included players like Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Edouard Julien, or Jose Miranda.

None of that group was moved though, and now the outfield has a glut of left-handed players for the corners. Trevor Larnach is a step below Wallner, and that may mean his time is soon up.

Trevor Larnach could be expendable for Minnesota Twins

When Minnesota sent Louie Varland to the Toronto Blue Jays the key piece was left-handed pitching prospect Kendry Rojas. They also got rookie outfielder Alan Roden, and being left-handed means he joined both Larnach and Wallner on the Twins roster. The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman isn’t sure all of them will be around next season.

If the Twins were confident all three would be impact hitters next season, they could find room despite the stylistic similarities. Wallner and Larnach are strictly corner outfielders and poor defensively, whereas Roden is much faster and has some experience playing center field and first base.

Larnach’s lack of production is the bigger issue. He’s a 28-year-old career .238/.321/.406 hitter with a 101 OPS+ in five MLB seasons, including a 98 OPS+ this year. That’s just not nearly good enough for a lumbering corner outfielder who needs to be platooned because of struggles versus lefties.

Wallner is also a lumbering corner outfielder who needs to be platooned, so they often get lumped together. But that’s unfair to Wallner, who has out-hit Larnach by 124 points of OPS for their careers. When facing right-handers, Wallner has a .914 OPS and Larnach has a .768 OPS.

Among the 186 hitters with at least 500 career plate appearances in a Twins uniform, Wallner is No. 7 in OPS, and Larnach is No. 85. Wallner is also a bit younger and will be minimum-salaried in 2026, whereas Larnach will likely be in line for at least $5 million via arbitration.

Roden is three years younger than Larnach and will be minimum-salaried for the next three seasons. I suspect the Twins targeted Roden in the Louis Varland trade with the Toronto Blue Jays, at least in part, because they may be ready to move on from Larnach, who was drafted in 2018.

The Athletic

As Gleeman notes, Larnach has played 407 career games and been exactly league average offensively with his 101 OPS+. That’s certainly not ideal for a guy that was picked in the first round under the premise that he could both hit and slug.

Larnach has never hit more than 17 homers in a season, though with 15 right now, he could get there in 2025. His peak OPS+ comes in at 116 last year, and that’s just not really enough to be satisfied with the production.

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Wallner and Larnach, as Gleeman also noted, often find themselves brought up in the same conversations. The former has simply been a much better pro though, and Roden represents a floor that can make Larnach expendable.

How do the MN Twins change the outfield?

You can all but put Byron Buxton and Matt Wallner’s name in sharpie for the Opening Day center and right field jobs next season. That brings both Roden and Larnach into question. Minnesota didn’t acquire the Blue Jays rookie not to utilize him, so he will be back as well.

The Twins would likely prefer to trade Larnach rather than designating him for assignment while skirting his arbitration-based raise. His value won’t carry a premium, but it’s possible another organization thinks they can help the 28-year-old find new heights.

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Another veteran option that can play centerfield makes sense. Harrison Bader would be fun to have back, although he’s likely played himself into a bigger deal next year. It’s unlikely that Minnesota wants to roster a gaggle of light-hitting, lesser options, such as Austin Martin and DaShawn Keirsey Jr.

There is also the building possibility that Walker Jenkins could be in the big leagues next summer. His role as a corner outfielder with the ability to play center field would work as well.