MN Twins Starting Rotation Mostly Set

New Minnesota Twins manager Derek Shelton is running things a bit differently this spring down in Fort Myers, vowing a return to the kind of fundamental baseball that predated his predecessor, Rocco Baldelli.

While Shelton says he has no desire to make out an Opening Day batting lineup until the Twins leave Fort Myers, that’s not the case in the starting rotation, even with Pablo Lopez likely out for the season.

It’s unlikely the Minnesota Twins replace Lopez with some unexpected blockbuster acquisition, no matter how “in” on Framber Valdez they supposedly were, before Pablo went down.

Instead, the Twins are expected to turn to their bevy of young starters who appear ready to bust through the big league wall. But even with a new spot available, there isn’t a lot of competition expected in the rotation over the next month.

Rotation picture becoming clearer for Minnesota Twins

Joe Ryan is now the unquestioned ace of Minnesota’s staff. Behind him, Shelton already has Bailey Ober written in… but he isn’t the only one. According to Dan Hayes (The Athletic), the Twins expect both Taj Bradley and Simeon Woods Richardson to enter the regular season as the third and fourth starters.

That means, the MN Twins have three pitchers (maybe four) battling at camp for ONE final rotation spot — Zebby Matthews, David Festa, Mick Abel and (possibly) Andrew Morris.

Technically, the Twins have three open spots in the starting rotation after Pablo López suffered what is likely a season-ending injury Monday. But two of those spots are almost surely earmarked for Taj Bradley and Simeon Woods Richardson, pitchers with more major-league experience than the rest. If that’s the case, Matthews is competing with David Festa, Mick Abel and possibly Andrew Morris for the final spot in the Twins’ rotation.

Dan Hayes – The Athletic

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There is little reason to believe Simeon Woods Richardson wouldn’t have a spot earmarked for him. He posted a 4.04 ERA (4.52 FIP) across 111 1/3 innings last season. While those numbers aren’t going to light the world on fire, they’re plenty productive for a back-end starter.

Bradley was brought back in the Griffin Jax trade and has already thrown 385 1/3 at the major league level. He wasn’t good in six starts for the Twins (6.61 ERA), but his 4.73 FIP wasn’t much off from his career average. It’s time for him to take a step forward, and now Minnesota will need him to.

The final four arms competing for one spot have varying degrees of success. Matthews, Festa, and Abel have all thrown at the major league level while Andrew Morris has not. They’ll have Grapefruit League action to sort it out.

Who emerges with MN Twins’ final rotation spot?

Zebby Matthews might be the most intriguing arm, while Abel once possessed the highest upside. Matthews had a 5.56 ERA last season, but just a 3.79 FIP. With his pitch mix, and velocity, there’s potential for a quality starter in the makeup. He wants it too, but will take the competition as it comes to him.

“As much as you want to have instant success in the league, there’s a lot of guys that struggle at first. Then they kind of find their footing, and they take off. It’s different for everybody. I’m trying to learn from my own experiences (and learn from veterans), when you were struggling early on in your career, you had a really bad start, how did you bounce back? What did you do? What’s the mindset there to kind of keep the confidence, trust your abilities and go out there?”

Zebby Matthews (via The Athletic)

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ZiPS projections have Matthews ticketed for a 3.93 ERA, which is better than both Bailey Ober and Taj Bradley. His 1.8 fWAR checks in fourth among Minnesota Twins starting pitchers. Abel is projected for a 4.46 ERA with Morris at 4.14 and Festa at 4.22.

It seems unlikely that Morris would jump the trio he is lumped in with, but the outcomes for both Festa and Abel are difficult to tie down. Abel has shown he can handle Triple-A (2.20 ERA in 2025), but the success hasn’t translated yet in limited major league exposure.

Minnesota has the benefit of depth on the starting pitching front. They did last year though as well, and exhausted it. They’ll need arms to take another step forward if they’re going to stick in the rotation all year long.

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