Chris Paddack in Danger of Losing Starting Job for Twins?

The Minnesota Twins have played a handful of games down in Fort Myers to open Grapefruit League play. Roster cuts have yet to take place, but plenty of spots are spoken for. Chris Paddack owns one of them.

Last season Rocco Baldelli’s starting rotation had plenty of question marks. A cash-strapped front office acquired Anthony DeSclafani. He never appeared in a game. Destined to be relievers, Louie (note, Louis) Varland and Brent Headrick had to work as starters.

The depth is significantly better this time around. That makes it all the more curious Minnesota opted against trading Chris Paddack this offseason. For now, he appears locked into a starting role.

What leash does Chris Paddack have with Minnesota Twins?

I was recently asked why the Minnesota Twins continue to show faith in Chris Paddack. The reason is simple. He makes $7.5 million this season. That doesn’t mean you (or I) have to agree with it. The contract is a sunk cost. Ideally he could have netted some sunflower seeds this offseason.

The MN Twins opted against doing that, and The Athletic’s Dan Hayes said that Paddack is “locked into the rotation.” That shouldn’t be a shock. It doesn’t mean the depth won’t threaten his job, and manager Rocco Baldelli has liked what he has seen thus far.

“It’s exactly what you want to see, but you don’t start smiling yet. That’s the way you want to start a spring training. That’s the way you want to go into the season. No matter how many starters you have in any given moment, or guys you think you can turn to, you’re always on the edge of your seat trying to make sure you’re prepared for anything that could happen to your team.”

Rocco Baldelli (The Athletic)

Depth is the result of the pitching pipeline fans have long clamored for Derek Falvey to replicate from his time in Cleveland. The Minnesota Twins have starting prospects that are both early and late round draft picks. Not all of them profile as an ace, but plenty have safe floors that should be able to find success at the highest level.

Chris Paddack does not have much success to lean on. He has thrown just 93 1/3 innings in two years with Minnesota. The Twins acquired him as an upside play alongside of Emilio Pagan from the San Diego Padres, but they haven’t been able to find any of it.

He has compiled a 5.01 ERA with Minnesota and owns and 87/22 K/BB. He made it back from a second Tommy John surgery only to be shut down with a forearm strain last season. Injuries have marred the vast majority of his career, and ineffectiveness has also been prevalent.

Related: Minnesota Twins Ramp Up Efforts to Improve Royce Lewis’ Defense

This spring Paddack has thrown three innings. Technically he has thrown five. Two innings against Tampa Bay in Port Charlotte don’t count thanks to the rainout. He gave up a home run in that game, and Junior Caminero took him deep twice in his last outing. His 93.3 mph average velocity last season was the lowest of his career.

Realistically it’s getting late early for Paddack. There are younger pitchers with better stuff behind him. Last season the Twins had tough decisions to make due to injuries. If they can stay healthy, there’s no reason to keep running an ineffective veteran out there.

MN Twins have multiple option to replace Chris Paddack

Last season the Twins found themselves scrambling for starters. Right now, that couldn’t be further from the truth. There are almost not enough innings to go around this spring, and that’s bad news for Chris Paddack.

Simeon Woods Richardson is the leader to grab the final starting rotation spot. As a rookie last season he started 28 games and posted a 4.17 ERA across 133 2/3 innings. That production is worthy of a fourth starting spot, and certainly could bump Paddack down a rung.

Beyond Woods Richardson though, the prospects are coming. David Festa made his debut last year and owned a 4.90 ERA across 64 1/3 innings. After two tough outings and a demotion, he returned to post a 3.81 ERA with a 3.15 FIP. Festa has a 7/1 K/BB in 4 1/3 innings this spring.

Zebby Matthews is going to make some noise this year!

The Twins' pitching prospect continues to shine in Spring Training, showcasing increased velocity, sharp stuff, and excellent command.

Hop on the Zebby train before it's too late! pic.twitter.com/Rcqm9Jw2kE

— Pitch Profiler (@pitchprofiler) February 28, 2025

Zebby Matthews also debuted last season. The rookie made nine starts tallying 37 2/3 innings with a 6.69 ERA. He begun the year in Single-A, so the meteoric rise was going to include hiccups. In five innings this spring he has allowed just three hits, no runs, and has a 7/0 K/BB.

Related: Twins Turn to Interesting Choice at Leadoff

Other top prospects will begin at Triple-A St. Paul this season. Travis Adams has already been added to the 40-man roster. Marco Raya joins him there as well. Both Cory Lewis and Andrew Morris will pitch with the Saints, and the former has one of baseball’s most unique pitches.

If there was a way to guarantee health, it might make sense for Minnesota to tell Paddack he doesn’t have it right out of the gate. That’s not going to happen obviously, but he doesn’t have much room for error when there are multiple arms coming to eat his lunch.