FanGraphs Extremely Confident Twins Reliever Will Return to Form

The Minnesota Twins — who are 6-9-3 in Grapefruit League action entering the day — are projected by many to have one of baseball’s best bullpens in 2025. Of course, that was also the case last season, and injuries derailed that dream.

And the No. 1 injury happened at camp, in 2024, when Jhoan Duran was forced to miss Opening Day. This spring, thankfully, he has been healthy. Earlier concerns regarding his velocity have calmed a bit, after he hit triple digits on the radar gun multiple times Thursday, including a one pitch that registered at 101 mph. Still, that’s a far cry from the near 102 MPH he averaged in 2023.

Twins reliever Jhoan Duran projected to dominate again

Last season, in part thanks to a noticeable drop in velocity, Duran posted an inflated 3.64 ERA (2.85 FIP) to go with his 66 strikeouts across 54 1/3 innings. Both his ERA and SO/9 were down pretty significantly, just like his velocity. But FanGraphs isn’t concerned.

Their ZiPS projections are mostly lukewarm on the 2025 Minnesota Twins, but they believe in their bullpen, and a Duran bounceback. In fact, Fangraphs projects Jhoan Duran to finish tied atop the list of fWAR bullpen leaders in the MLB next season, with fellow Central Division reliever, Emmanuel Clase (Guardians).

Duran’s 11.21 projected K/9 would be a nice bump back up from the 10.8 K/9 he posted for the MN Twins last season. Depth Chart’s projections have Duran at 1.9 fWAR which comes in just behind Miller’s 2.0 fWAR. His 2.58 ERA through that system represents the lowest mark for any reliever in baseball.

Related: Twins Quietly Sign Homegrown Indy League Prospect

If the Twins are going to have baseball’s best bullpen though, it can’t just be a Duran thing. Thankfully, last season’s slide forced more production from Griffin Jax. He is viewed as a the 7th best reliever by ZiPS and 14th from Depth Charts. To say that Minnesota has a two-headed monster is putting it lightly.

Twins fireballer Jhoan Duran is now on against Red Sox prospect Marcelo Mayer. pic.twitter.com/3FrxA2PfPG

— Ted (@tlschwerz) March 13, 2025

His 100.5 mph average fastball velocity in 2024 was a career low and he generated way less whiffs (10.9%) than in past seasons. In 2023, Duran averaged 101.8 mph and 14.5% whiffs. We’ll see if Jhoan can regain his league-high velocity, but let’s be real, he shouldn’t need to throw 102-105 MPH to be effective. That’s not sustainable. Developing a changeup would help, which is why he’s working on just that this spring.

Related: Minnesota Twins Provide Updates on Injured Pitchers

A Duran bounceback this summer would be big news for a very talented Minnesota Twins bullpen anchored by him and Griffin Jax. If the Twins can get both of those guys performing at their peak ability, it would be a gamechanger their playoff chances.

Duran must prove it for Minnesota Twins

Projection systems, like the one FanGraphs uses, works with multi-year rolling numbers to project the future. Duran’s dominance during the first two seasons of his career prop up his projections, but there’s a reason they do it that way. Guys like Duran bounceback after injury-riddled seasons all the time. At 27 years old, hopefully he can too.

Related: Minnesota Twins Sale Has Officially Hit a Snag

If the slide ends here, then it’s on Duran to make the new version of himself work. He looks 100% healthy and came into camp lighter. Maybe he regains the form we have previously seen from him. What the Twins can’t afford is to have the slide from 2024 continue.

But injuries aren’t new problem for Duran, either. An inability to stay on the mound is why he’s pitching out of the bullpen, in the first place. Nonetheless, there’s plenty of reason for optimism, surrounding the Minnesota Twins flamethrower. Just ask Fangraphs…