Does Byron Buxton Have a Shot to Win the Home Run Derby?

The Minnesota Twins finished their first half Sunday with a loss against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Shortly after, Byron Buxton and Joe Ryan boarded a plane and flew together to Atlanta, GA, where they’ll participate in the 2025 MLB All-Star Game Tuesday night, as members of the American League.

Both players deserved their invites to the Mid-Summer Classic, even if Ryan had to wait longer than he should have to receive his. But for Byron Buxton, this week is about more than being named an All-Star for the second time in his career.

Tonight, on the eve of the All-Star Game, Minnesota’s center fielder will take to the greatest solo stage in all of baseball, as one of eight participants in the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby.

Can Byron Buxton win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?

Buxton expressed an interest in the derby, even even prior to his selection for the AL roster. Tuesday evening, at 7 PM CDT, dreams will become reality for Buck, who grew up just 3.5 hours away from Truist Park, new home of his childhood team, the Atlanta Braves.

Through 77 games Buxton has 21 home runs. His latest came at the culmination of the first cycle in Target Field history on Saturday. After finishing off the first half for the 47-48 Minnesota Twins, he’ll turn his focus to launching baseballs at Truist Park.

But, can he win? Well, Vegas certainly isn’t ruling him out as an underdog winner.

Related: Byron Buxton Hits for Cycle on His Day; Twins Dominate Pirates

Ultimately, the Minnesota Twins superstar slugger represents a pretty strong bet, given his long odds of winning. But if you’re taking Buxton, do it at DraftKings, where you can get slightly better odds.

It seems there is a consensus among the top three tonight. It’s not surprising that Raleigh sits at the top of the board, thanks to his league-leading 38 home runs. Raleigh is a big-bodied switch-hitting catcher, at 6’2″ 235 pounds.

He’s hit 22 of his 38 homers have come as a left-handed batter. Hitting lefty is probably the way to go at Truist Park, considering the right field fence measures at 325 ft from home plate (375 to right-center), compared to 335 to right and 385 to right-center.

Byron Buxton is 5-for-5 today and just hit a HR to complete the 12th cycle in Twins history.

Healthy Buck is a freak of nature. pic.twitter.com/lD1RvKsY4h

— Minnesota Sports Fan (@realmnsportsfan) July 12, 2025

This season, Byron Buxton and his 3.8 fWAR has pretty much carried the Minnesota Twins offense. Beyond his 21 homers, the 31-year-old former No. 2 overall draft pick is also toting the third-highest OPS (.921) in the American League, trailing only Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh.

What to expect out of the Minnesota Twins superstar tonight

The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby won’t take into account anything but the big fly, of course. The last (and only) Twin to win the derby was Justin Morneau in 2008. Miguel Sano did finish as runner-up in 2017.

But Minnesota Twins fans know better than anyone, that if Byron Buxton finds his rhythm Tuesday night, he’s more than capable of winning this thing. He won’t be looking to take advantage of the shorter porch in right and right-center, though.

Just one of Buxton’s home runs this season has been to the opposite field. And even that big fly landed right-of-center by only a handful of feet.

Truist Park is a bit less hitter-friendly than Target Field so far this season, but that doesn’t really factor into tonight’s equation, being this is a competitive batting practice session, not a baseball game with a pitcher trying to get the hitter out.