MN Twins Hiding Bailey Ober’s Velocity in First Start?
When the Minnesota Twins envisioned a successful 2026 season, it largely revolved around a starting rotation built to carry them there. Unfortunately, that spring dream died before the Twins’ first full-squad practice came to a close, when Pablo Lopez was pulled off the mound with what would later be diagnosed as a UCL tear.
Minnesota’s ace has since undergone Tommy John surgery, meaning he will not be available this season. The hits have continued coming since. Not even a week later, Joe Ryan was scratched from his first Grapefruit League start and, shortly after, the Team USA WBC roster.
Finally, the now unquestioned Twins ace will make his first appearance of the spring today vs the Tampa Bay Rays. With Joe Ryan penciled in as the Opening Day starter, Minnesota desperately needs (now No. 2) Bailey Ober to have a bounceback season in 2026.
Bailey Ober still full of concerns for Minnesota Twins
After needing additional time to find his body again, Ober took the mound for the Minnesota Twins last week. His box score looks pretty good. Ober struck out just one of the six batters he faced, in two innings pitched, but he never allowed any of them to reach base.
But according to John Bonnes (Gleeman and the Geek) — who was at the game in Fort Myers and talked to Ober afterwards — this was the first game in which pitcher velocity readings were not showing at their home stadium of Hammond Field (Lee Sports Health Complex).
“The question was, this delay, has it been more about trying to find the feel of your off-speed stuff or has it been about your velocity? …
…He said, ‘a little bit more velocity. I just didn’t want to fall into the habits I had last year, so whenever those kind of peeked out a little bit we just took a little pause to try to improve stuff. I felt really good today. Obviously I don’t know where my velo was today, but it felt like it was coming out pretty good. Hopefully in a month or so, I’m in midseason form velo wise and able to get the best of the best stuff.’…
…The [Twins] didn’t have the velo on the board on Friday night. Which was like, ‘really?’ We were of course locked into Baseball Savant and MLB.com to see it.”
John Bonnes – Gleeman and the Geek
What does all this mean? Who knows, but it doesn’t seem like the stadium radar was malfunctioning that day. Ober would up throwing 25 pitches against the Braves last week. His fastball averaged 89.9 mph (via Statcast).
That’s a dip, for sure, but it’s important to remember that this was Bailey Ober’s first outing of the spring, and he’s clearly been having some issues ramping up. So the fact that he generated two whiffs on six swings with his fastball is probably a good sign.
Ober has never been a velocity pitcher. His success comes from extension and the frame that allows him to get in on hitters. However, when successful he has averaged more than 91 mph, so let’s hope that velo pushes up a bit from here. Last season, his fastball sat 90.2 mph.
MN Twins need Bailey Ober to work
Simeon Woods Richardson and Taj Bradley are likely locked into the rotation, and that means one spot remains. If Ober isn’t ready, then both Zebby Matthews and Mick Abel should make the squad. David Festa bowed out of the competition after being shut down himself.
Abel has looked incredible this spring, throwing 10 scoreless innings and carrying a 13/0 K/BB. It would be great to see him push for a spot, rather than being called upon out of necessity with Ober not being an option.
Last season the Minnesota Twins were confident in their pitching depth. They quickly found out how that looked once exposed and wound up using 16 starters. Being down three potential options before Opening Day, Ober the next counted on among them, would hurt.
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