Quarterback Sam Darnold played the starring role for the winning team, throwing a career high 5 touchdowns, career high 347 yards passing and a career high 157.9 QB rating, in a 42-21 route has launched the 2018 No. 3 overall pick back into NFL MVP conversations, overnight.

Josh Allen passed for 342 yards and scored six total touchdowns (3 pass, 3 rush) in the later slate of afternoon games, on Sunday, which has overshadowed Darnold’s brilliance from earlier in the day, and this morning’s updated odds reflect that.

What are Sam Darnold’s MVP odds after week 14?

Can Sam Darnold actually win the award? The short answer is… probably not? DraftKings, FanDuel and ESPN Bet all have similar MVP odds across the board, and there are currently two favorites — Josh Allen (-400 DK) and Eagles RB Saquon Barkley (+450 DK) — who stand high above the others on the board, including Darnold.

While Sam may be in the conversation now, as one of only six players in the league who have better than +10000 to win Most Valuable Player, he’s still very much a long shot. Josh Allen is the clear favorite, at -400 (DK). After that, Saquon Barkley +450 (DK) is the unanimous runner-up, at +450 (DK).

Then, Lamar Jackson (+1000) and Jared Goff (+1000) take up tier two. Behind them, sit Sam Darnold (+5000) and Patrick Mahomes (+4000), the two remaining candidates with any MVP hope still alive.

Current 2024-25 NFL MVP Odds

On the season, Sam Darnold has amassed more passing yards than the unanimous MVP favorite, with 3,299 (6th in the NFL). Sam’s 28 touchdowns (T-3rd) are also more than Josh has thrown. But from there, the stats take a heavy turn in favor of the Buffalo Bills QB.

Related: The Minnesota Vikings Are Not Talking Contract Extension with Sam Darnold

Josh Allen has a much more impressive QBR than Sam Darnold. The Wyoming product has also thrown only 5 interceptions all year, vs our USC alum’s 10 (T-14th). But really, it’s been Allen’s abilities as a dual threat that have made him virtually unstoppable.

Allen has rushed for 416 yards, so far this season, to go along with 9 rushing touchdowns. The latter number is three more than Minnesota Vikings starting running back Aaron Jones, who has just 4 rush TDs on the season (6 total).

Josh Allen vs Sam Darnold

The Minnesota Vikings haven’t had an NFL MVP on their team since Adrian Peterson won it in 2012, and it will probably take a miracle for it to happen again this season. Nonetheless, we’re seeing an LA kid blossoming in Minnesota, right before our eyes (during the winter).

Related: What We Learned About the Minnesota Vikings in Week 14 Route of Falcons

The Minnesota Vikings are 11-2 and a top contender in the NFC. That’s what matters. Nobody (and I mean NOBODY) had Darnold as a top six NFL MVP candidate on their 2024 week 14 NFL futures Bingo card, back in August. And who knows, weirder things have certainly happened, and there is plenty of football still to be played.

Sam’s 275 yards through the air in Green Bay, pushed his total to 932 passing yards on the season, good for 7th most. He also ranks 3rd among NFL quarterbacks in QBR (73.6) and 1st in QB Rating (118.9). Without a doubt, he has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league, through four weeks.

Sam Darnold MVP odds surging

Entering week four, Darnold was leading the NFL with eight touchdown passes. That won’t change going into week five, after he threw three more vs the Packers, bringing his total to 11 TD passes on the season. Baker Mayfield is in a far-away 2nd place, with eight.

.@JJettas2 you are unreal. Literally not real.

📺: @NFLonCBs pic.twitter.com/9c7pRswcny

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) September 29, 2024

Darnold’s impressive start to the 2024 season is pushing his MVP odds through the roof. So much so that Sam is now a top-five contender for the NFL’s most coveted individual award.

According to DraftKings, Sam Darnold now has the 5th best odds to win 2024 NFL MVP (+1300). Only Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and CJ Stroud have better odds than our QB1. Think about it…

This truly puts into perspective just how impressive Sam Darnold has been, so far this season. It’s only week 4, so anything can happen. Last year, Kirk Cousins found himself in a similar position, as the 2023 Vikings worked their way back to .500, following an 0-3 start to the season, before he tore his achilles and missed the rest of the season.

The perfect Minnesota Vikings QB for the perfect time

But the past is in the past, and the present is Sam Darnold. At this point, only the true haters think Darnold can’t play. As long as he stay healthy and continues to follow the path Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell has laid out for him, there’s no reason to think we’ll see a huge fall from grace.

Related: What We Learned About the Minnesota Vikings in Near-Collapse Victory @ Packers

Considering the rocky start to his career, it’s hard to believe we can reasonably say that, after just four weeks. Clearly, KOC targeted Darnold as his No. 1 bridge QB option, after Kirk Cousins left town. Now, we are seeing why.

He’s slipped seamlessly into the offense, giving the Vikings exactly what they needed to win games in 2024. And now, they’ve emerged 4-0, and one of the NFL’s top teams. Sam Darnold will aim to keep his NFL MVP momentum going next week, in London, where the Vikings will face a familiar foe, and his new(ish) team, the New York Jets.

On Wednesday morning, the NFL announced the finalists for their Associated Press end of the year awards and JJ was named as one of five finalists for MVP. The other four, of course, are quarterbacks.

The finalists for the 2022 AP MVP. ????

????: #NFLHonors — Thursday, Feb. 9 at 9pm ET on NBC pic.twitter.com/7YOkys5edJ

— NFL (@NFL) January 25, 2023

Justin Jefferson Looking for Hardware

It’s very unlikely Jefferson pulls off an upset but it isn’t MVP or bust for Jefferson. He was also named as one of four finalists for Offensive Player of the Year, an award he has a much better shot at winning.

In recent years, the OPOY award has been handed down to the best offensive player who doesn’t play QB. That list includes wide receivers Cooper Kupp last season and Michael Thomas in 2019. JJ has been an OPOY favorite for months.

And he deserves it, given the insane numbers he posted (128 REC, 1,889 YDS, 8 TD).

The nominees for the 2022 AP Offensive Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year.

????: #NFLHonors — Thursday, Feb. 9 at 9pm ET on NBC pic.twitter.com/kNQfPzWL7N

— NFL (@NFL) January 25, 2023

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

But on Wednesday morning, in possibly the greatest live moment in TV history, Brandt cemented himself into the hearts and souls of Vikings fans forever. In a predictions segment he does before every season, Kyle Brandt went out of body, tucked in his purple #8 jersey and picked Kirk Cousins to win the 2022 Most Valuable Player.

MVP Kirk Cousins (Warning: Video may cause Vikings fans to run through nearest wall)

2022 MVP pick.

I’d like to take this chance to apologize, to ABSOLUTELY NOBODY pic.twitter.com/HFA16AghR8

— Kyle Brandt (@KyleBrandt) September 7, 2022

“My favorite type of MVP comes up every so often and it’s the totally unforseen, head-scratcher, ‘what the heck’ type of MVP. And there’s always a recurring theme in the head scratcher-types. Right coach, right receiver…”

… Ladies and gentlemen, I see, from a higher view, of the right coach and the right weapons and I believe the MVP family is going to have a new family member. They’re going to have a new father, they’re going to have a new brother, they’re going to HAVE A NEW COUSIN! AND KIRK COUSINS IS GOING TO BE THE NFL MVP AND YOU’RE DAMN RIGHT I’VE GOT THIS JERSEY TUCKED-IN! JUST LIKE HE WOULD! WITH A FANNY PACK AND SNACKS AND MAPS AND AN MVP TROPHY! ARE YOU READY FOR THIS (points to screen)?

THAT IS YOUR MOST VALUABLE PLAYER OF THE YEAR! WHEN SPF MEETS MVP, KIRK COUSINS IS GOING TO TAKE THIS THING! HE HAS THE WEAPONS, HE HAS THE EXPERIENCE, HE HAS THE NEW COACH WHO IS GOING TO UNLOCK THE ENTIRE THING!” – Kyle Brandt – GMFB (NFL Network)

Kirk Cousins Awakening

Can someone get me a cigarette and just inject this entire segment directly into my veins. I might watch it on repeat for the rest of the day. Might have to get out the old VCR and record this segment over my parents’ wedding or my own first communion, just because it deserves that kind of treatment.

With purple kool-aid flowing through his veins, Brandt points to Rich Gannon (2002) and Matt Ryan (2016) of MVPs past. How the right coaching and the right receivers can create the perfect MVP mixture. And how Kevin O’Connell, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and friends are those perfect ingredients for a 2022 Kirk Cousins explosion.

I went to battle for Kirk Cousins yesterday. I want to believe the hype that’s building in my soul on Cousins + O’Connell. Yet, my Minnesota Sports Fan syndrome was held me back. I’ve been burned too many times by over-optimism entering a season. Not anymore, though. I’m diving directly into the passenger seat of Kyle Brandt’s Kirk Cousins hype train. Choo Choo mother frigger.

“Kirk Cousins, with the tucked in jersey! SKOL Vikes! Kirk, I love you, I see you, blast the Creed and drive the mini-van, we’re winning MVP! That’s my call! That’s my call! It feels good, it feels good!” – Kyle Brandt – GMFB (NFL Network)

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

On Good Morning Football, Brandt gave his answer for a segment asking for 2022 ‘dark horse’ NFL MVP candidates and he knew some controversy would follow his selection. Who was he choosing? Minnesota Vikings quarterback, Kirk Cousins, of course. Brandt’s 1-minute campaign speech included Kirk’s van, Outback Steakhouse and Creed playlists.

Kirk Cousins dark horse MVP? I didn't say it. Kyle Brandt said it. pic.twitter.com/C9mBCnZzhu

— Declan Goff (@DexsTweets) May 23, 2022

“Is the world ready? Is the Internet ready for Kirk Cousins as the NFL MVP? Because damn it, I am. Get in there, Kirk! Let’s do it! Everybody get in your conversion vans and drive them to Outback Steakhouse where you will pay with a gift card. I’m ready and I think the Vikings are ready.

Listen, this is a guy, in the day Kirk Cousins could be counted on to flirt with 5,000 yards passing, whether it be with Washington or Minnesota. Nobody in the NFL has better receivers, yes I said it. I think there are some great ones. I don’t think I can clearly say anybody’s better than the guys he lines up with, especially with Dalvin Cook.

And remember, everybody. the Zimmer era is over. We have a young, square-jawed offensive head coach who is going to unleash hell across that field turf at US Bank Stadium. He’s got his Creed playlist. He’s ready.”

Kyle Brandt – GMFB (video above)

Can Kirk Cousins win MVP?

Yes, Kirk Cousins could win MVP. But only if Kevin O’Connell is able to unlock a version of Cousins that we have never seen before. Kyle Brandt is 100% correct about Kirk’s arsenal of high powered weaponry, his throwing ability and the stats he’s been able to put up.

The unknown, which Brandt mentions as a sure upgrade, is new head coach Kevin O’Connell. Yes, Mike Zimmer is gone and Kirk Cousins should be playing in a much more QB-friendly offense. But until we see it, we can’t know if it will mend the weaknesses that have held Kirk back for his entire career.

We know what holds Cousins back from being the best version of himself when he walks onto a football field. Kirk doesn’t play well off script and he’s often too afraid of risk. He doesn’t have ELITE leadership qualities, either, and the game can move to fast for him in big moments. Fixing these (mostly) confidence issues is the key to how viable of an MVP candidate Kirk Cousins can realistically become.

Confident Kirk?

Leadership is bred in confidence. The more confident a person is, the better leader he or she can potentially be. It’s what the kids call “swag” and what the 30-year-olds like me called “swagger”. Whether it’s better leadership or more responsibilities at the line of scrimmage, among many other things that Kirk Cousins has historically lacked, O’Connell is the key to empowering and unlocking it.

All of the great quarterbacks of our time — Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Patrick Mahomes — all have autonomy to call timeouts, change plays and move things around at the line of scrimmage, when they feel necessary.

Not Kirk Cousins with the Minnesota Vikings. Why? When asked, Kirk has told media that he prefers it that way. He’s supposedly worried about adding another responsibility to his plate come gameday.

“I just let Zim handle the timeouts,” Cousins said after the Minnesota Vikings’ loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night, “because I never know quite what the coaches want to do with what they’re thinking, a play ahead or what that may be. So I was just gonna let them handle that and call the next play if one came in.”

Kirk Cousins (via ZoneCoverage.com)

O’Connell is the Key

Now, is this Kirk Cousins being honest? Does he really want to avoid these kinds of responsibilities? Because if so, nobody is following that guy into battle. How can his teammates have confidence in Kirk Cousins if he doesn’t have requisite confidence in himself?

Or, was Kirk just playing it cool with the media, when he gave that answer on what he can and cannot do at the line of scrimmage? We do not know what was happening behind the scenes. Given what we know now, would it be shocking if Zimmer & Co didn’t allow Cousins the same type of autonomy that other established quarterbacks around the league have?

If Kevin O’Connell can empower Kirk Cousins in a way that previous coaching staffs have not, then we could absolutely see an MVP performance from the Minnesota Vikings QB. But many would call unlocking Kirk Cousins impossible. That, if he had it in him, we would have seen it by now. And they could be right.

Is it September yet?

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan