Keith Law is among the most prominent prospect voices in the game. He’s often quick to hold a haughty opinion and stick to it. He beat Royce Lewis’ name into the mud, and has often come for prospects in a…rather direct way.

Royce Lewis 🤝 Grand Slams

The @Twins slugger has his SIXTH career grand slam!

(MLB x @DairyQueen) pic.twitter.com/B6F2BGBDBj

— MLB (@MLB) August 23, 2025

The goal for any organization is to develop their prospects and young players beyond what insider expectations are for them. Law does present a yearly look back at players he missed on, and Joe Ryan is now among them.

Joe Ryan’s greatness escaped Keith Law

The Minnesota Twins targeted Joe Ryan in the Nelson Cruz trade because they saw a near-MLB ready pitcher that they believed they could get more out of. It turns out they were right. Law never ranked him highly, and often overlooked him due to a fastball that sits in the low-90’s. He has now seen the error of his ways.

With Ryan, it was a simple error that turned out to be very significant in evaluating his outlook. I’d heard so many times about pitchers with so-called “invisiballs,” fastballs that were impossible for hitters to see or square up, that I’d become skeptical of anyone who supposedly threw one.

Ryan was one of those “invisiball” guys; the highest ranking I ever gave him as a prospect was when he made my just-missed list going into the 2020 season, where I referred to his “ordinary stuff,” saying he did it with deception and a plus changeup but that his fastball was just average.

I know one scout in particular who told me I was underrating Ryan, because he believed the fastball was going to continue to play in the majors, but I was too jaded from all the invisiballs that didn’t work out and was definitely too focused on Ryan’s meh velocity rather than all of the other attributes that can make a fastball work.

Keith Law – The Athletic

Law’s assessment of Ryan was lacking due to recency bias. Ryan’s fastball works because of his extension, which Law notes, “he Twins boosted his extension from right around the league average of 6.4 feet to 6.8 feet this year, which ranks in the 80th percentile.” While the velocity isn’t top-tier, it plays because of how he throws the pitch.

There are lots of examples across baseball in which a process or certain mechanical intention doesn’t work. The times it does though, are the spots in which a player stands out.

Although Ryan has scuffled down the stretch, the Twins pitcher owns a 3.32 ERA (3.43 FIP) and was a fringe Cy Young candidate. He made his first All-Star team this season, and is trending upwards as Minnesota must rebuild their rotation.

Is there more for Joe Ryan in Minnesota?

What is next for Ryan remains a mystery. He doesn’t hit free agency until after the 2027 season, but that didn’t stop the Twins from dangling him in trade talks at the deadline. The Boston Red Sox came close to acquiring his services, and he has already openly admitted he’d be ok with a move.

Ryan has not been shy about speaking out against missteps by the organization. He is penciled in as a top-two starter behind Pablo Lopez for the 2026 team, but it’s possible that the Pohlads tear down the Twins spending even further.

Related: Joe Ryan Exposes Pohlad Budget Cut That Killed the Twins

If Ryan moves elsewhere, the goal of that organization will be to get him to the next level. Through his first 24 starts, Ryan owned a 2.72 ERA with Minnesota this season. A 3.26 FIP suggests some likely regression, but it has hit hard. In four starts since, he has allowed 16 runs on 23 hits and four homers in just 18 innings.

No matter how pronounced the cold streak is, Ryan remains a dominant pitcher and a true asset. Law missed on that when Minnesota didn’t. Now it’s on the Twins to not miss on capitalizing his value with the franchise rather than parting him out and starting over.

The rest of the Twins rotation could be pretty good as well. While some may be sleeping on the quality of the group as a whole, Minnesota’s depth should be a strength. If there is a question mark, it’s the pitchers that come after Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober.

If there is someone to worry about, it’s probably the injury prone Chris Paddack. Paddack had Tommy-John surgery in 2022 to repair a torn UCL. He returned last year, but was then diagnosed with a forearm strain which caused him to miss the rest of the season. Behind him, Simeon Woods Richardson could represent the greatest uncertainty of possible outcomes.

Simeon Woods Richardson may be Minnesota Twins pitching star

After pitching just a single game at the big league level each of the previous two seasons, Simeon Woods Richardson arrived in 2024. The Minnesota Twins rotation needed him, and he put together a stellar rookie campaign with 28 starts, 133 2/3 innings, and a 4.17 ERA.

His numbers didn’t jump off the page, but it was more than a solid starting point. The guy that was once considered the secondary part of a Jose Berrios trade, now could be so much more. The Athletic’s Keith Law saw Woods Richardson this spring, and he sees an immense level of upside to SWR.

“Minnesota Twins right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson made a huge adjustment to his arm slot in the 2023-24 offseason with the help of the Twins’ player development staff, taking him from an also-ran on the outside of the Twins’ rotation plans to a 2-WAR season as their fourth starter.

Although I didn’t see a changeup from him (I was moving back and forth between two fields), and that pitch might be the key to whether he can break out to a greater degree this year. His changeup was his only “bad” pitch by results last year, worth a whopping minus-16 runs by Statcast, wiping out 80 percent of the value of his other three pitches combined…If he gets that changeup closer to the zone often enough to get hitters to go after it, he could be the Twins’ second-best starter rather than their fourth-best.”

The Athletic

Last season, Woods Richardson dropped the usage of his fastball to a career-low 40%, but he upped the velocity to a career-best 93.1 mph. His changeup, while not an asset, was something he used 19.3% of the time. It’s possible that that the Minnesota Twins will have him use the pitch more often if he hones it in just a little.

Woods Richardson had a 20.6% strikeout rate with a whiff rate just under 10%. There’s room for his production to grow if he can push the 27.7% chase rate up into the thirties. That’s where Law is talking about the changeup being a weapon, and another pitch adding to his arsenal.

Simeon Woods Richardson, K'ing the Side in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/giTCJvcvFW

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 6, 2024

Twins Rotation with new Simeon Woods-Richardson

Joe Ryan finished with a 3.1 fWAR in 2024 while Bailey Ober posted a 2.9 mark. If Minnesota gets something in that vicinity from Woods Richardson, they should expect to have one of the best pitching staffs in all of baseball.

When the Minnesota Twins acquired Woods Richardson he was a top 100 prospect, but a vastly different pitcher. His development and growth highlights how progression is not always linear. He will pitch this season at just 24 years old, and it should be expected that there is still ample amount of room for him to trend upwards.

Related: Former MLB GM Sleeping on MN Twins Starting Rotation

The Twins have done a great job in recent seasons when it comes to pitcher development. 2024 was evident of that when it comes to Woods Richardson. If that’s just the beginning of his story at the highest level though, then as Law suggests, things get very exciting.

But given the amount of talent already on this club, and some of the prospects banging on the big league door, it’s not far fetched to see this roster producing 85-95 wins, if it can stay reasonably healthy and avoid the type of second-half collapse that doomed their 2024 season.

Last summer, thanks to a multitude of injuries that the MN Twins suffered throughout the regular season, there were plenty of big league promotions to be had. And none came with higher anticipation than that of top prospect, Brooks Lee, who the Twins drafted with the No. 8 overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft.

Unfortunately, after a hot start to his big league career, Lee’s bat disappeared as the season went on and he finished with a disappointing .221/.265/.320 slash line in 172 at bats. This spring, Lee — who is no longer listed on Major League prospect lists — is just trying to make the Opening Day roster, something that is far from guaranteed.

Keith Law is all in on Brooks Lee

But even with plenty of questions surrounding the talented infielder’s young career, entering 2025, there are plenty around the game who still believe in Brooks Lee. And we can count The Athletic’s Keith Law as one of those Brooks Lee believers.

After a rookie season marred by injury, Law believes “we will see the real Brooks Lee this year” even going as far as to project the 24-year-old out of Cal-Poly as “a 2.5 WAR player” in 2025. Those are some lofty expectations for a kid who probably won’t make the roster out of camp…

“Let’s not overthink this one. Lee was a top-10 pick (No. 8, 2022), hit well in the minors, hit extremely well in Triple A last year and was awful in the majors when he wasn’t on the IL with a herniated disc in his back or shoulder soreness… A guy with back and shoulder problems who missed more than half the year couldn’t hit the ball as hard? You don’t say. I think we will see the real Brooks Lee this year, and he’s a 2.5+ WAR player.”

The Athletic

It doesn’t take a doctor to figure out how arm, shoulder and back issues could hamper a big leaguer’s production, especially a youngster, just getting accustomed to MLB pitching. This season, though, Lee has a better plan for his chronic back pain, and believes he is more prepared for the rigors of the MN Twins’ 162 game season.

Related: Unfortunately for Brooks Lee, the Twins 2B Competition is Fixed

Through ten Grapefruit League games, Lee is batting .267 with a .757 OPS with a pair of home runs; production the Minnesota Twins would happily take at second base this season… if he can make the 26-man roster, something that doesn’t appear all that likely, barring an injury in the infield or another roster shakeup in the next two weeks.

Former Minnesota Twins top prospect trying to catch up to the fastball

Contact, especially against fastballs, has never been a problem for Lee, until last season when he hit just .176 against the most basic pitch in baseball. And once opposing pitchers realized he was struggling to hit the fastball, they attacked like hungry sharks swimming through bloody saltwater, throwing him fastballs 33.9% of the time, as his offensive number continued to tumble.

“I always hammer fastballs. My whole life. Last year was the first time I never hit a fastball. It makes it pretty difficult to hit… I happened to fail after being on top of the world for two weeks. It sucked. (The first season) was not as enjoyable as I would have thought. But you play good, you feel good…When you have good mechanics, and your swing is quick, you don’t have any wasted movements, then you get to make a decision later. I think it’s a big difference in how I see the pitch and then my swing decisions…I just got to get back to that.”

Brooks Lee – The Athletic

Lee making slight mechanical tweaks, and being healthy, sounds like a perfect recipe to get back to the player we all know he can be. His 36.9% chase rate was five-percent above what he did at Triple-A last season. He cut down the whiff rate below 10% but his 64.6% contact rate on pitches out of the zone resulted in too many poorly hit baseballs, while up with the MN Twins.

Related: Insider Calls Minnesota Twins Starter a Breakout Candidate

A healthy Lee, with no back or arm issues, should be confident in his ability to drive the baseball and punish fastballs. It’s out of Lee’s hands as to what level he is playing at, come Opening Day. The former Minnesota Twins top prospect can, however, control the production he puts forth wherever he ends up, and then build off of that.

That doesn’t mean they all operate that way. Keith Law has traditionally been a contrarian in his analysis over the years. He was outwardly denigrating of Royce Lewis for Minnesota. Often it seems as though he chooses to be the outlier intentionally. Sometimes, things don’t change.

MN Twins system hilariously low for Keith Law

Last season the Minnesota Twins graduated several key prospects. Brooks Lee is no longer eligible and neither is David Festa. Zebby Matthews is also very close to surpassing rookie limits as well. The farm system remains in great shape, however. Keith Law doesn’t see it that way, though.

“The Twins have the most lowercase-m midwestern system there is. They have two prospects who look like they’ll be superstars in Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez, and a pitcher who might join them in Charlee Soto. They have a lot of nice prospects behind them, guys who’ll play in the majors, have value, but probably won’t be difference-makers. They draft well, they develop well. They don’t seem to do anything poorly. And they’re just kind of in the middle. It’s a really nice system. They all say “hi” to you on the street. I want to be a little more excited about it.”

Keith Law ranking the Twins system 19th (The Athletic)

The Twins come in 19th among Law’s farm system rankings for 2025. It’s an odd juxtaposition to suggest “it’s a really nice system”, but call them a fifth tier group in the vein of the Miami Marlins.

Related: Local Insider Confident Twins No. 1 Prospect Will Debut in 2025

It’s fair that Jenkins and Rodriguez make Minnesota a bit top heavy, but the depth throughout is solid as well. Luke Keaschall should be the difference-maker type that Law is referencing, and Soto has only appeared on a single top 100 prospect list thus far.

Walker to The Wall!

Walker Jenkins doubles to the right field wall to record his first Double-A RBI.

T6
Drillers: 0
Wind Surge: 1 pic.twitter.com/tJgDmviVxK

— Wichita Wind Surge (@WindSurgeICT) September 15, 2024

How strong the MN Twins system is may be reliant on what among the secondary pieces can take a leap. There are a ton of those guys including last season’s first round pick Kaelen Culpepper. He is joined by Marco Raya, Andrew Morris, Gabriel Gonzalez, C.J. Culpepper, and Cory Lewis as other guys who fit that bill.

This is a big season for the Twins system. Minnesota is relying heavily on internal depth due to a lack of spending. That means there should be opportunity for a new wave of talent to force their way in. That allows everyone else across the board an opportunity to raise the water level.

We’re only a couple weeks from Spring Training, and the farm system will kick off not long after the big league team. Not many outlets put out full league system rankings, and Law has eyes on more players than most. We’ll see if he’s right.

Related: Twins Analyst Questions Rocco Baldelli’s Managerial Strategy

Minnesota Twins get rave reviews in Keith Law’s prospect rankings

Keith Law has been writing about prospects for years. His rankings have moved places during that time, but now appear for The Athletic. He has had controversial stances with different names, but it’s clear he is high on the current Twins crop.

Walker Jenkins, the Twins top prospect, is now a top 10 player for Law. Jumping to ninth from 15th, Law is clearly sky high on the 2023 first round pick.

“Jenkins got hurt in his first game of the season, hit the injured list, and has hit .277/.417/.406 since his return to Low A with 25 walks and just 15 strikeouts. He’s always had power and scouts loved his swing, but he was pitched around a ton in high school and there was some uncertainty about where his hit tool stood and how real the plate discipline was. I think we can say now it’s real, and the man can hit. He’ll probably follow Clark to High A soon.”

Walker Jenkins, OF, Minnesota Twins

Jenkins was incredibly impressive on and off the field tonight. Mashed an HR and showed a good all-fields approach. It's a simple operation with a strong feel to hit and great pitch recognition. 0 whiffs in 5 trips to the plate tonight. pic.twitter.com/q5qyozuzaX

— Chris Clegg (@RotoClegg) July 25, 2024

Similar to Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez sees a big boost for the Twins. Despite still being injured with a sprained thumb, he has looked exceptional at the Double-A level. Previously ranked 47th, Law moves Rodriguez to 26th.

“When Rodriguez is on the field, he rakes, up to .298/.479/.621 in 37 games so far as a 21-year-old in Double-A Wichita, even though he came into the year with only 183 games of professional experience over three seasons. That’s because he’s been hurt pretty often, missing time this year with a sprained thumb and the previous two years with a major knee injury and an abdominal strain. He still doesn’t chase pitches out of the zone and makes a ton of hard contact. If he plays, he’s a star, but he has yet to have a full season of at-bats.”

Emma Leadoff Rocket!

Emmanuel Rodriguez swings on the first pitch and scorches a solo home run. His eighth home run of the season and the second straight game with a Wichita leadoff round-tripper.

B1
Missions: 0
Wind Surge: 1 pic.twitter.com/Nvr7YqlSTY

— Wichita Wind Surge (@WindSurgeICT) May 26, 2024

Rounding out the group of top 60 prospects is soaring riser Zebby Matthews. After starting at High-A this season, he is now pitching for Triple-A St. Paul. Previously unranked, Matthews gets love from Law.

“Matthews was an eighth-round pick in 2022 out of Western Carolina, but since then he’s added more than a grade of velocity while actually improving his control. He sits 94-95 now, topping out at 97. Matthews has a slider, cutter, curveball and occasional changeup, nothing clearly plus but everything playing up because he throws so many strikes — he didn’t walk a batter until his seventh start of the season, going over 125 batters without a walk — and because he’s got an extremely short arm action that adds some deception. I don’t love the delivery, but I wouldn’t change it until it causes a problem.”

Zebby Matthews, making his first career start at Triple-A, retired 13 of the last 15 batters he faced in the @StPaulSaints win🌟

5 IP / 4 H / 2 R / 0 BB / 6 K

On the season, he has 97 strikeouts to 6 walks…which is the best K/BB ratio in @MLB and @MiLB (min. 35 IP)‼️#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/hLZcoPQfHH

— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) July 21, 2024

Law did preface that the midseason list doesn’t follow the same criteria as his offseason updates. Current placement on a big league roster removes a prospect from consideration. For the Twins, this applies to both Brooks Lee and David Festa.

Related: Bleacher Report REALLY Loves the Minnesota Twins Farm System

Will the Twins move these prospects?

It remains highly unlikely that the Twins would part with any players currently in Law’s top 60. Jenkins is untouchable by all realistic measures. Rodriguez is right there with Jenkins, and dealing him while hurt isn’t going to happen. Matthews is a realistic option to pitch for Minnesota down the stretch, and that takes him out of consideration as well.

Given the Twins organizational depth as a whole, they shouldn’t need to move top prospects when filling big league holes. Players like Luke Keaschall and Gabriel Gonzalez are probably the top of the threshold from a prospect perspective. There are also 40 man candidates to be looked at as expendable for the Twins.

Up against self-imposed payroll constraints, expecting a big deal seems foolhardy. The Twins don’t need a massive swing to help their postseason positioning. That should help in providing realistic avenues to get something done. It will also mitigate the return sent to an opposing organization.

Related: Passan: Money Issues Continue to Hinder Twins in Trade Talks