One moment, the Vikings were a factor in everyone’s Super Bowl picks and long-time leaders at the top of the NFC North Divisional betting markets, then, one poor game against the Giants and it was all over. That’s when the hindsight experts began talking about how Minnesota’s record was inflated and that they weren’t really as good as 13-4 suggested they were.

So, what is the truth and how should we think of the Vikings team right now? Are they legitimate Super Bowl contenders or just another middling NFC outfit?

Coaching Perspective

Disappointing though the Giants’ loss was, it is worth taking a step back to look at the performance of the head coach and general manager, who were in their first season at the franchise. A record of 13-4, a first Divisional title in six years, and a playoff spot? That reads like a solid first season, and it was.

Of course, for a fanbase that is long overdue a Super Bowl, it isn’t enough for the Vikings to be just better than average, but the coaching regime has to be given its time. They inherited a team that was okay, not great, and they found a way to improve and grind out results.

Minnesota Vikings Defensive Problems

It is astonishing to contemplate the defensive turnaround at the Vikings. Under Mike Zimmer, this was a defense-first franchise, but in the space of one year, Minnesota became one of the poorest defensive teams in the league, across pretty much all categories.

The stats are conclusive. They finished the season with the second-most yards conceded in the NFL. Although they had stars of the quality of Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter in the defense, they lacked consistency in their pass rush and the continual changes in the secondary resulted in an unreliable season-long performance, giving up 209.3 points per game.

The factor that kept the Vikings competitive was that their defense had the ability to find takeaways. They finished the regular season ranked eighth for total takeaways, many of those occurring at just the right time to secure the win. Paradoxically, although the Minnesota defense was the reason why they were involved in so many close games, it was also the reason why they were able to win most of them.

Unfortunately, relying on those in-the-nick-of-time takeaways was ultimately unsustainable, and in the Wild Card game, there were none, resulting in the obvious consequence.

Obviously, there will be changes in the defense, changes that already began with the firing of defensive coordinator Ed Donatell. The secondary and the interior defensive line are the two priorities and a decision has to be made about Patrick Peterson, who will become a free agent this season. With limited room for maneuver, being $8 million over the salary cap, Minnesota will have to make difficult decisions.

Maintaining Offensive Balance

Kirk Cousins is a divisive figure, but the offense was not the problem for Minnesota this season. He did a solid job of utilizing his main weapons in Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, T J Hockenson, and Dalvin Cook and here, the Vikings will have to focus on trying to retain their key stars.

Unfortunately, cap pressure may require some inventive thinking on offense. Thielen’s expected cap hit of $19.9 million makes him a potential trade, especially as center Garrett Bradbury is surely too important to be moved on¾in his absence this season, Cousins was sacked 16 times.

Speaking of Cousins, he remains the biggest hit on the cap. If they were to trade him after June 1, it is possible that they could take as much as $30 million off their cap. But is that worthwhile? Cousins was not the problem during this season, and he is arguably playing some of the best football of his career, having settled into this offensive scheme well. And if the Vikings want to go further in the playoffs, then they have to find a similar or better quarterback, who will not be cheap.

Summary

With pressure to find cap space, the Vikings face a challenging off-season in 2023, but if they make the right moves, particularly on defense, and are able to keep the current offense largely intact, then they are not far away from being a team that can get beyond the Divisional Round next season.

Ed Donatell coaching for his job…?

And according to Darren “Doogie” Wolfson (KSTP, SKOR North), Donatell is coaching for his job this postseason. Not only does he have to win this weekend vs the Giants. Doogie said on Thursday’s Mackey & Judd Show that Ed has to help the Vikings reach the Super Bowl if he’s going to have any job security entering the offseason (09:45 mark — transcribed below).

“Barring some sort of miraculous 3 or 4 game run here starting on Sunday, I’m fully prepared to start searching on who those candidates are. Will the Vikings reach out to them? Like, I think the end is near here for Ed Donatell.”

“Yes, if they play unbelievably well against the Giants, shock us, I do believe the 49ers beat the Seahawks. So, let’s say it’s Saturday, January 21st, the Vikings go to Santa Clara, if they win that game, if they shut down Deebo [Samuel], Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle & Co. Move onto the NFC Championship Game, then play well, shut down Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, win. Get to Glendale in February… Okay, we can have a different conversation. But I’m not sure I like all of those things happening. I can see them winning on Sunday but not sure I see much beyond that so I am preparing as if there is going to be a change.”

Darren Wolfson – Mackey & Judd Show

Failed experiment

Donatell was brought in to transition the Vikings from a 4-3 Mike Zimmer scheme to a 3-4 Vic Fangio scheme, something we’re seeing more and more across the NFL. It’s a zone-style coverage scheme that relies on a 4-man rush and focuses on minimizing explosive plays.

Unfortunately for the Vikings, those concepts haven’t carried over to the football field, especially in coverage. Donatell’s 2022 pass defense allowed the 3rd-most air yards in the NFL, 3rd most yards per attempt and 5th-most yards per completion. The defense, as a whole, allowed the 3rd-most points.

Still, the Vikings managed a 13-4 season and pulled impossible wins out of situations that wouldn’t even fly in Hollywood. Without a doubt, Donatell’s defense played a part in Minnesota going 11-0 in one-score games. Oftentimes, they’d buckle down late when a stop was required to give the offense a chance or chances.

The good times couldn’t save Ed Donatell’s job.

Like in Buffalo, the Bills scored 24 first half points before the Vikings defense buckled down and only allowed 6 points in the second half. And don’t forget about the fumble they recovered in the endzone to claim victory that afternoon.

VIKINGS RECOVER THE FUMBLE FOR THE TD. WHAT IS HAPPENING!? ????????

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/sJqf48NJtH

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 13, 2022

Then there was the largest comeback in NFL history vs the Colts. The Vikings gave up 33 first half points, many of which were on offensive mistakes, then only 3 points in the second half. Same type of thing happened in wins over the Patriots and Lions too.

So the defense has had its moments and contributed, at times, to where the Vikings are entering the postseason. But there’s no doubt its been their biggest weakness and stands as that entering Wildcard weekend.

Sure, NFL pundits continue to doubt Kirk Cousins and the injury riddled offensive line is going to be a problem this weekend, but it’s the defense that has the Vikings ranked by Football Outsiders as the least likely of all playoff teams to win the Super Bowl.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

Could Kevin O’Connell have called smarter plays and managed the game better, as a whole? Of course. But the defense gave up 464 yards to the Lions’ offense. It was their 5th-straight game allowing over 400 yards, a franchise record.

It’s not just yards allowed where the Vikings’ defense struggles. They rank at or near the bottom of nearly every defensive metric on the internet. Classic, advanced, efficiency… it’s all bad.

The Vikings rank as follows:

???? 32nd in Total Yards Allowed
???? 32nd in Passing Yards Allowed
???? 27th in Yards per Rush
???? 27th in FG Kicking %

Sadly, none of that sounds like a team ready to make noise in the postseason.

— Dustin Baker (@DustBaker) December 12, 2022

The Vikings are allowing 9.23 Y/A playing off coverage this year—unsurprisingly, the worst rate in the NFL. You know what they say about the definition of insanity… pic.twitter.com/yRMofZSg8B

— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) December 12, 2022

Pressure is the problem

So what’s the underlying problem for the Minnesota Vikings defense? Well, there are plenty. But the most glaring issue goes back to the core of what makes a good defense in 2022. How much pressure can you get on the opposing quarterbacks?

Early on this season, the Vikings relied on their front 3-4 pass rushers to get that job done. That’s why ZaDarius Smith and Danielle Hunter rank at or near the top of the NFL in QB pressures with 70 (1st) and 49 (11th), respectively, according to PFF.

Send the blitz!

But recently, pressure has been harder to come by because opponents are stacking their protection packages against Hunter and Smith. To combat that extra attention, the Vikings are sending more blitzes.

Ed Donatell has sent blitzes just 17.3% of the time in 2022, good for 24th in the NFL. Against the Jets and Lions the last two weeks, however, that’s up to 32%.

The problem? It’s not working. Against the Jets, the Vikings defense managed just 15 total pressures, though they did hit the QB 7 times and sacked him once. Versus the Lions, the lack of total pressures (14) was more noticeable. Probably because they managed just 3 hits and 0 sacks on those pressures.

Well that's the thing. The Vikings blitzed on a season-high 31.7% of the snaps yesterday, but got cooked for 10/13/101/1 because they only created pressure on three of their 13 blitzes. https://t.co/hgvmIPcHEm

— Eric Thompson (@eric_j_thompson) December 12, 2022

Vikings blitzed a season-high 31.7% of the time vs. Jets. Season rate is at 19.9%, 8th-lowest in NFL. Asked DC Ed Donatell today how he considers whether to blitz, and got what I think is the most succinct summary we've heard of his defensive approach with this roster …

— Kevin Seifert (@SeifertESPN) December 8, 2022

Fixing the pass rush and finding a way to get more pressure on quarterbacks is what can most quickly turn the Minnesota Vikings defensive struggles around. It creates late downs with distance, turnovers and game-changing plays.

But if Ed Donatell is going to send pressure, he needs to make sure it gets home far more often. If not, the Vikings are better off keeping that extra defender in coverage. Or… finding a new defensive coordinator and/or play caller.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

And now that the NFL season is back, Aaron Rodgers is again doing a weekly Tuesday morning segment on The Pat McAfee Show. Obviously, the Vikings were a main topic of conversation and Rodgers did not disappoint.

Aaron Rodgers on Minnesota’s new defense

Let’s start with Aaron’s thoughts on Ed Donatell’s defense in year one as Minnesota’s defensive coordinator. Rodgers came away very impressed by some of the schemes and looks thrown at him on Sunday, also noting how good Danielle Hunter, Za’Darius Smith and Harrison Smith are.

“The Vikings played some different coverages on the back end & there was some things we just didn’t expect” ~@AaronRodgers12#PMSLive pic.twitter.com/tpoZEE69c3

— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) September 13, 2022

This clip is delicious for a lot of reasons. Knowing that Ed Donatell’s schemes and disguises confused Rodgers all afternoon makes me happy. Especially when it comes directly from the horse’s mouth. But A-Rodg wasn’t generic with his answers. He dug deep into what the Minnesota secondary threw at him, what surprised him and what didn’t.

Rodgers knew that Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter were elite EDGE rushers. What made my pants tight, was how Rodgers — a 1st-ballot Hall-of-Fame QB — talked about the Vikings’ secondary.

Let’s not forget. The secondary was not expected to be a strength for the Minnesota Vikings’ defense. If it somehow ends up as that, and Smith/Hunter stay healthy… wow.

Rodgers Impressed by JJ, Not Cousins

In their handshake / dap-up session after the game on Sunday, on-field microphones thought they overheard Aaron Rodgers’ tell Justin Jefferson that he was the best player “in the game today”. Rodgers confirmed his love for Jefferson’s game but claims his words were “on the field, today”.

Rodgers praised JJ’s route running and compared his releases to that of DaVontae Adams. He described Jefferson as THE difference in Sunday’s game, too. The Green Bay quarterback, quite literally, could not find enough compliments for the Vikings superstar wide receiver. The envy and jealousy, in his breath, was pungent.

But woven into Rodgers’ obsession over Justin Jefferson, was a lot of underhand shade being tossed at Kirk Cousins. In the middle of complimenting JJ, Rodgers downplayed Kirk’s involvement, calling him a “very steady at quarterback”. That he “did a nice job getting [the Vikings] into the right stuff and making the plays that were there to make”. Making it clear repeatedly that Justin Jefferson was the difference, not the guy passing it to him.

“I told Justin Jefferson after the game that he was the best player on the field.. he was the difference maker” ~@AaronRodgers12#PMSLive pic.twitter.com/8ioYCnjPMF

— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) September 13, 2022

No Lies Detected?

Is Aaron Rodgers wrong about Justin Jefferson being the difference-maker? Not necessarily. But he was so open on some routes that I could’ve helped someone’s fantasy team if placed into some of those situations.

And Kirk Cousins deserves his fair share of credit for what happened on Sunday and what could transire for the Minnesota Vikings’ offense throughout the course of this season. Kirk isn’t just a game manager. He’s a fucking delivery man. If there’s a play to be made and receivers are open, he’s going to deliver them the football 9/10 times.

And there aren’t a lot of teams across the NFL who can say that about their QB, no matter how good their receiving options are. Outside of his backhanded slaps at Cousins, I appreciated everything about this Aaron Rodgers interview.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

Rookies are already reporting to Training Camp across the NFL. First year Vikings are scheduled to arrive at TCO Performance Center by July 24 and the rest of the team on July 26. Patrick Peterson, on a new episode of his “All Things Covered” podcast, previewed the upcoming season and had a lot of good nuggets for fans to chew on.

New Defense > Old Defense

What stuck out to me most, however, was Peterson’s excitement to play in Ed Donatell’s defense. He too, had clearly gotten sick of the well-known complexities of Mike Zimmer’s defensive scheme. All the checks, the audibles, the communication skills, the CONFUSION. P2 clearly believes the simplicity of this new scheme will reverberate positively through all levels of the defense (11:15 mark — Transcribed Below).

“I think the defense is gonna be a night and day difference, in my opinion. Having the opportunity to just line up and play football. There aren’t many checks, aren’t many audibles. We’re forcing teams to beat us We’re not trying to reinvent the wheel, trying to come up with crazy blitzes, these crazy zones. Just lineup and play football.” – Patrick Peterson (All Things Covered Podcast)

“With the scheme that we have, it’s definitely going to put us in position to be successful on all levels. From the d-line, to the linebackers, to the backend. I had an opportunity to see it close up in person, playing against Ed [Donatell] and the 49ers back in the day, my first couple years in Arizona. I saw how it worked. And I had [eventual teammates] that came out of that system. [I got to] hear some of the stories they were able to share on just how easy and how fluent [Ed Donatell’s] defense was. It was never really no loose ends. Everybody was always on the same page because there was never no, ‘if somebody motions, we checking to this’. If we have one call and that call is not suitable for us to win on that down, yes, we’ll audible out of that then. But there’s not much talking. You get the call, you lineup and play football.” – Patrick Peterson (All Things Covered Podcast)

Proactive vs Reactive

Peterson’s comments aren’t surprising, but they do provide more evidence that Zimmer’s once envied defensive scheme has become outdated. Ed Donatell’s scheme has many of the same key features as what we’ll see from Kevin O’Connell’s offense. Simplicity hidden within a cloud of smoke and mirrors.

Earlier in the show, Pat goes into a few details. We won’t see a lot of blitzing but, thanks to the 3-4 base scheme, the opposing QB and OL won’t know which four rushers are coming. In theory, offensive pre-snap motions shouldn’t cause the same type of confusion, either.

Zimmer’s defense was so intricate and complex that every offensive movement cause change to what they were doing. By definition, they were playing in a reactive nature. Patrick Peterson is expecting a more simple game plan that will change week-to-week, depending on matchups. And once they show up on gameday, you play football. Less thinking, less confusion.

New TCO vibes

Peterson made it clear that he feels no need for playing time during the preseason. The risk for injury isn’t worth what veteran players get out of it. P2 will get all the preparation needed during training camp, especially given the joint practices the Minnesota Vikings have scheduled with the San Francisco 49ers.

The vibes at TCO Performance Center are at an all-time high, under the new leadership of Kevin O’Connell and Kwesi-Adofo Mensah. Peterson isn’t blind to the honeymoon stage the organization is currently in but he’s also mindful of the winning cultures the new coaches have been hired out of.

It’s a unique staff, man. Much different from any other staff I’ve been around. Laid back. There’s always a time and place for everything. But at the same time, they do a great job of having a great balance of work, a good time and getting the job done. It’s been great, thus far, but when the real bullets start flying, that’s when you really get to see how coach reacts. But everybody on the defensive staff have been in the playoffs. Head coach came from a Super Bowl team. So they understand what it takes to make things happen. My trust is all in on those guys because they came from winning. They know what it looks like, know what it takes. – Patrick Peterson (All Things Covered Podcast)

Other highlights of the podcast include Peterson praising Justin Jefferson and his ability to get open vs anyone. He’s pumped to have Za’Darius Smith on the defensive line, too.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

Most notedly, a new defensive coordinator — 65-year-old Ed Donatell — who’s spent the last three seasons in the same position for the Denver Broncos and has 42 years of NFL coaching experience. The Vikings will also retain wide receivers coach, Keenan McCardell, who reportedly clicked really well with Justin Jefferson last season.

Source says the #Vikings will name Ed Donatell as their new defensive coordinator next week under new coach Kevin O’Connell. Donatell, 65, was Denver’s defensive coordinator the past three seasons.

— Chris Tomasson (@christomasson) February 10, 2022

Donatell Hire Signals Winds of Change.

The Ed Donatell hire isn’t a complete surprise, for a couple of reasons. First, his age and experience. It has been rumored since 36-year-old Kevin O’Connell was hired that the Vikings liked the idea of pairing the young, first-time head coach with a defensive coordinator who’s been around the block. Donatell and Adofo-Mensah worked together when their careers crossed paths in San Francisco and reportedly got along well.

But there are a few questions about Ed Donatell and it starts with the 3-4 defensive scheme he’s expected to implement. Look, the Minnesota Vikings have been a bad 4-3 defense for a couple of years, under Mike Zimmer. But as currently constructed, they’d be a much, much worse 3-4 defense.

Eric Kendricks No Longer Makes Sense?

On Thursday for example, Paul Allen and Ben Leber discussed on KFAN radio whether or not Eric Kendricks can be an effective linebacker in a 3-4 scheme. Kendricks has been an an all-pro caliber player during most of his entire 7-year career, including a career-high 143 tackles in 2021.

But there are legitimate questions surrounding his size and capabilities both on the edge or in the middle of a 3-4 scheme, something Allen has clearly been struggling with. The conversation starts at the 21:00 mark below and goes for a few minutes. I only typed out one of the more interesting parts.

—

ALLEN: “If I say, ‘Eric Kendricks is not a 3-4 linebacker’, am I overstating it? Am I wrong? Because I’ve said it like 3 times. I just think he’s too small for the inside and he’s not…”

LEBER: “… and he’s not an outside guy, yeah. That’s the direction I’m going. I gotta be careful here because I think he’s such a good player, he’s such a good athlete and he has such amazing instincts. To say that he can’t make the transition, I think, is foolish. I think it’s going to be difficult for him, though. It’s a defense, in my mind, that doesn’t speak to his specific skillset and I think it’s going to enhance the weaknesses that he has.”

“You are [as an inside LB in a 3-4 defense] taking on a fair amount of more blockers. We’re not talking fullbacks and tight ends. We’re talking guards and tackles. That is not his strong point. He does not have long arms. He’s not a thumper when it comes to getting off blocks. It doesn’t come natural for him to play off blocks and you do have to two-gap a lot as an inside linebacker [in a 3-4 scheme].”

92Noon Show – KFAN

If Eric Kendricks doesn’t fit the new scheme, the Vikings could cut him and save $7.5 million. I doubt it would come to that. Finding a trade partner who would deal for an all-pro caliber 4-3 middle linebacker shouldn’t be a problem. But if the Vikings decide to move on from Kendricks, who in the fuck are they going to keep?

Danielle Hunter

Well, the conversation starts with Danielle Hunter, who is due an $18 million roster bonus if he isn’t moved, cut or extended by March 20. If there’s any freak athlete on the Minnesota Vikings who would transition to a 3-4 scheme with relative ease, it’s a healthy Danielle Hunter.

But does the new regime see it that way? Hunter is an Andre Patterson product and posted a picture to social media of the two hugging after it was announced that Patterson was hired by the New York Giants on Thursday. Premier pass rushers are difficult to come by but the Vikings front office could save a lot of money and gain some legitimate draft capital, should they decide to move the oft-injured 4-3 defensive end before 3/20.

Easily Expendable

If the Vikings choose a full-on defensive rebuild, which seems more and more likely as the days pass by, they could easily flip most of Mike Zimmer’s defense in just one offseason. From a contract standpoint (according to spotrac.com), the Vikings would save money by trading or cutting almost everyone.

• Danielle Hunter: $18.6M Saved
• Eric Kendricks: $7.5M Saved
• Harrison Smith: $5.7M Saved
• Michael Pierce: $6.2M Saved
• —
• Anthony Barr: FA
• Patrick Peterson: FA

Some of those players may have trade value, like noted above. Expendable contracts would only make negotiations with other teams easier. The only contract on defense that is ‘uncuttable’ is Dalvin Tomlinson’s. If the Minnesota Vikings were to cut or trade Tomlinson, they’d have to pay a $10 million cap penalty. He’s only on the books for $7.5 million this season.

Both Tomlinson and Pierce, unlike others, would probably fit pretty well in a 3-4 scheme. Defensive backs like Cam Dantzler, Kris Boyd, Camryn Bynum and other playing on rookie deals don’t matter in this conversation. Their money is minimal and they have very little contract power.

In other words, the options are limitless. If Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Co want to blow up Mike Zimmer’s defense and start over from the ground up, it’ll be relatively easy for them to do. At least from a money standpoint.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan