Schefter: Sam Darnold Back to Vikings Makes Most Sense

There is one thing that could make me a believe the Sam Darnold market is so down around the NFL that he can’t find a mid-tier starting QB offer on the open market, like NFL insiders are selling. That’s if free agency hits on March 12, and Darnold can’t find a Baker Mayfield-type offer (3 years, $100 million).

If Sam has to settle for one or two year deal worth, say, $25 million per season, then that would prove just how pessimistic the rest of the league is regarding the future of a 2024 Pro Bowler who threw for over 3,400 yards and 35 touchdowns in his one season with the Vikings.

NFL Insider expects Sam Darnold back with the Minnesota Vikings…?

And if you ask NFL insider Adam Schefter (ESPN), that is exactly what he is expecting to happen next week. On his most recent podcast, Schefter dove deep into what he is hearing behind the scenes on Darnold. And he claims that the most QB hungry teams (Giants, Raiders, Titans, etc) are all lukewarm on Darnold, making his market entering free agency rather underwhelming.

In fact, the market for Sam Darnold is so depressed, says the No. 1 NFL insider in the game, that the most likely landing spot for the former USC star in 2025 is right where he was last year. With the Minnesota Vikings… as an insurance plan for JJ McCarthy. — Darnold talk begins around the 06:25 mark — transcribed below in parts — Hat tip to @TPPSkol on X for catching this Schefty scoop first.

“It would not be surprising if the [Vikings and Darnold] figured out some type of short-term contract that enabled the Vikings to get Sam Darnold, that enabled him to get paid, that enabled them to run it back in the event that JJ. McCarthy is not fully ready this season from his knee injury or struggles in the preseason or experiences whatever type of setback there is.

So, to me, Sam Darnold to Minnesota makes sense, but now that he’s not going to be tagged, other teams are going to have their say. So, we’ll see if there’s a team out there, like the New York Giants, that makes a compelling enough offer to pry loose Sam Darnold. My guess as we tape this is no. My guess is the one that makes the most sense is Minnesota.”

Adam Schefter – The Adam Schefter Podcast

Related: Vikings Players Rank Near Top of Free Agent Position Groups

The Minnesota Vikings did not tag Sam Darnold before Tuesday’s 3 p.m. CST deadline. What does that mean? Those who read this site regularly know exactly how I feel about the situation. The Vikings missed out on a huge opportunity to gain back desperately needed 2025 draft capital by letting Darnold walk.

But apparently, that’s not what the market is telling general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah about the Vikings’ 2024 starting quarterback, five days before the negotiating period begins on March 10. Personally, I am still hard-pressed to believe that a 27-year-old former No. 3 overall pick isn’t worth rolling the dice on.

Darnold back to Minnesota makes sense to Adam Schefter

I mean, even if the Minnesota Vikings can get Darnold back cheaper than expected, would they really want to plant such stiff competition into camp with McCarthy? And if you’re Sam Darnold, do you really want to land somewhere you’re looking over your shoulder at JJ McCarthy all training camp, and if you win the job entering the regular season?

Prior to this week, the answer to those questions were believed to be, “no”. But apparently, the lack of interest in Darnold from other teams is making all sides question those past beliefs. Now, Schefty gets the feeling that landing back with the Vikings might not be so bad after all…

“I think another team like the Raiders, like the Giants, like the Titans, like whoever it is that had a quarterback question might be more compelled to throw big money at Sam Darnold. But when that big money apparently, because we never fully know, but when that big money apparently doesn’t materialize to its fullest extent, he’s happy in Minnesota. He’s with a great coach.

He’s with a great team. He thrived there. So the worst-case scenario is you go back to Minnesota, you go back on a short deal, you make good money this year, not as good as you would have hoped, but decent money, and then you parlay that and basically put off free agency for a year and try to test the market again next year.”

Adam Schefter – The Adam Schefter Podcast

As Schefter notes, we will soon find out what the market really thinks about Sam Darnold. Because more than likely, he is going to hit free agency. This doesn’t sound like there is going to be any sort of extension done. If Sam comes back, it will be due to his inability to find a better situation on the open market.

I do find what the ESPN NFL insider says next. If Sam Darnold does end up back in Minnesota, Schefy won’t guarantee he finishes out whatever contract he signs. He points to the possibility that another team suffers a QB injury between now and the start of the season.

Could the MN Vikings still get something for Sam Darnold?

An unforseen scenario like that could cause a desperate team to knock on the Vikings’ door to try and pry away Darnold, before the start of the season, just like Minnesota did Sam Bradford in 2017, when they traded a 1st round pick to Philly after Teddy Bridgewater blew out his knee during a preseason practice.

Related: Bears Making Moves to Fix O-Line as Vikings Watch

Otherwise, Sam plays out his one season with the Vikings and hits free agency again next year, hopefully with an even better and more proven positive reputation. Either way, Schefter claims, a return to Minnesota can absolutely end up being what’s best for Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings.

“Maybe he finishes strong next year and maybe he enters the market even more desired than he was this year…Or maybe there’s a team out there that suffers a quarterback injury in the summer and they say, you know what, let’s go trade for Sam Darnold and he’s got a chance to shine there.

By getting a short-term deal done with Minnesota, you almost reset the market with the same coaches, wide receivers and supporting cast and give yourself another chance, being that the market wasn’t quite as strong as a lot of people believe.”

Adam Schefter – The Adam Schefter Podcast