4 Stats to Know for New York Jets vs Minnesota Vikings Matchup in London, Analyzing Impact
The Minnesota Vikings head to London in Week 5 for the first game in the NFL International Series 2024 sitting atop the NFL power rankings with one of the top offenses and best defenses in football. Ahead of a critical matchup against the New York Jets in London, we’re diving into the stats that will dictate the Jets vs Vikings matchup.
Both clubs are headed in very different directions right now. Minnesota enters NFL games today scoring the fourth-most points per game and it ranks fourth in scoring defense, per ESPN.com. Meanwhile, New York is 2-2 and coming off a brutal 10-9 home loss to the Denver Broncos.
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Ahead of Sunday’s early morning kickoff, let’s dive into the stats you need to know for Sunday’s Jets vs Vikings game in London.
35% – New York Jets’ ESPN pass-rush win rate this season
After losing Bryce Huff to the Philadelphia Eagles, the New York Jets recognized they needed another edge rusher to bolster their pass defense. It led to the Haason Reddick trade, but the Pro Bowl edge defender still hasn’t played a snap in New York. With Reddick sitting out regular-season games and Jermaine Johnson (Achilles) lost for the season, New York’s pass rush has been far less effective than it was in 2023.
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Last season, the Jets had the fourth-highest pressure rate (26.5 percent) and the sixth-highest sack rate (8.4 percent) in the NFL. Heading to Londo, New York ranks 25th in ESPN pass-rush win rate (35 percent). Of the team’s 14 sacks, half of those came against the worst offensive line in the NFL (New England Patriots).
For comparison, Minnesota’s offensive line has a 55% pass-block win rate this season whereas New England is dead last by a wide margin at 40 percent. The Vikings’ offensive line is just 26th in Pro Football Focus‘ Pass Blocking Efficiency (81.1) with the 12th-most pressures (40) allowed.
In comparison, New England has allowed 62 pressures this season and is last with a PFF PBE of 73.0. It all suggests this could be a lot more like the Monday Night Football game in Week 1, when the Jets generated just 9 pressures on 31 pass attempts by Brock Purdy. Of note, the Jets defense has the 11th-lowest blitz rate (22.3% this year.
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127.1 – Sam Darnold’s NFL QB rating when not pressured
We first highlighted some stats for the trenches ahead of the Jets vs Vikings game because of what it means for Sam Darnold. He’s playing near an MVP-caliber level this season, which is a credit to both him and the phenomenal supporting cast around him. The Jets’ ability to pressure Darnold and Minnesota’s approach to keeping the pocket clean will have a significant impact on this matchup.
- Sam Darnold stats vs clean pocket (PFF): 127.1 QB rating (1st), 80.6% Adjusted Completion rate (11th), 3.7% Turnover-Worthy Play rate (6th-highest), 4.9% Big-Time Throw rate (5th), 82.6 PFF grade (9th), 10.0 yards per attempt (2nd), 7 passing touchdowns (T-1st), 2 interceptions
Everyone knows how good this Jets’ secondary is and it’s why this could be a lower-scoring game than expected. New York has allowed the lowest net yards per attempt (4.2), the fifth-lowest completion rate (61.1%) and the sixth-lowest average QB rating (78.6) this year.
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- Sam Darnold stats vs pressure (PFF): 95.7 NFL QB rating (8th), 69.2% Adjusted Completion rate (10th), 4.2% Turnover-Worthy Play rate (10th-highest), 3% Big-Time Throw rate (13th), 59.2 PFF grade (13th), 5.9 yards per attempt (15th), 4 passing touchdowns (1st), 1 interception
When this Jets pass rush can’t get home, that gives Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison time to find space against these cornerbacks. Coverage can only hold up for so long, especially with how well Kevin O’Connell is designing passing concepts this year. While this is the best defense Darnold has faced in 2024 and it is his former team, he could shine if Minnesota keeps a clean pocket.
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3.7 – Yards Per Carry allowed by the Minnesota Vikings defense
It will come as no surprise that an Aaron Rodgers-led Jets team doesn’t run the football a ton, entering Week 5 with the 12th-lowest rushing rate (40.41 percent) in the NFL. New York also hasn’t been particularly effective on the ground, averaging the sixth-lowest yards per carry average (3.7) in the NFL. That doesn’t bode well for Breece Hall and Braelon Allen against this Vikings defense.
- New York Jets rushing stats: 3.7 yards per carry (27th), 5.5 rushing first downs per game (24th), -0.109 Rush EPA (20th), 39.3% Rushing Success rate (17th)
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- Minnesota Vikings run defense stats: 3.7 yards per carry average (4th-best), 75 rushing yards per game allowed (2nd-best),-0.714 Rush EPA allowed (5th-best), 35.1% Rush Success Rate allowed (7th-best)
The Vikings have allowed just one opponent (San Francisco 49ers) to rush for 100 yards this season and that’s also the only game Minnesota has allowed a rushing touchdown. While there is important context to consider – the Vikings take two-score leads early and faced Devin Singletary (Week 1) and Cam Akers (Week 3) – this has still been one of the best run defenses in the NFL using basic and advanced stats.
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75.6 – Aaron Rodgers’ QB rating when pressured
Once the escape artist who navigated pressure like few others in NFL history and slipped out of sacks to launch downfield touchdown strikes, Rodgers isn’t the quarterback he used to be. Through four games, the Jets’ signal-caller ranks 11th in QB rating (75.6) when pressured, just ahead of Daniel Jones. Alarmingly, Rodgers is also tied with Jones, Gardner Minshew and Bo Nix with 0 big-time throws, per PFF, when pressured.
- Minnesota Vikings defense stats: 40.8% blitz rate (2nd in NFL), 34.2% pressure rate (2nd), 14.9% hurry rate (1st), 12.5% QB knockdown rate (6th), 8.8% sack rate (9th)
Just a week ago, we saw this same Vikings defense generate 13 pressures (fifth-most in Week 4) against a good Packers offensive line. While Jordan Love was playing on an MCL tear, Rodgers is now 40 years old and looks like a quarterback a year removed from a torn Achilles. Pressure on Rodgers will be critical, especially with him not being on the same page as the Jets’ receiving corps right now.
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