Minnesota Vikings 2025 Ceiling/Floor According to ESPN

Last season the Minnesota Vikings ripped off 14 wins despite being projected to be something of a door mat. J.J. McCarthy got hurt before the regular season even started. It became the Sam Darnold show, and head coach Kevin O’Connell got the absolute most out of him.

Now with Darnold in Seattle and McCarthy as the signal caller, the expectations for Minnesota have changed. General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah constructed a roster intent on winning now, and the hope would be that the Vikings can achieve just that.

With a young quarterback it should be expected that there will be bumps in the road. Hopefully they are minor though, and O’Connell can build on the success he led last season. The swing in potential outcomes could be massive.

A season of potential outcomes for MN Vikings

It’s beyond plausible that the Minnesota Vikings win less games than last season and have a better team. 14 wins doesn’t leave much room for growth, but a division title may not require that either. ESPN’s Kevin Seifert took a stab at the floor (6-11) and ceiling (11-6) for the 2025 season.

Is Kevin O’Connell serious about the run game? The Vikings coach took a step toward balancing his offense in 2024 from its pass-happy ways in 2022-23, but the ascendance of first-time starter J.J. McCarthy will necessitate a bigger shift. The Vikings will also need to run more effectively after ranking 25th in the NFL last season in EPA on running plays. There is good reason to think they can, after pairing Jordan Mason with Aaron Jones Sr. in the backfield and acquiring three new starters on the line. McCarthy continued to develop during training camp, but counting on him to be a 4,000-yard passer in his first season seems unrealistic.

Kevin Seifert – ESPN

What J.J. McCarthy looks like in his first season under center largely will be a reflection of those around him. O’Connell already proved an ability to get more from a quarterback last season (and those prior). McCarthy also steps into an offense ripe with playmakers and the best line we’ve seen in years.

What McCarthy thrived on with Michigan was an ability to utilize a strong running game. How good Minnesota’s can be is something Seifert pointed out as an x-factor.

Last year Aaron Jones put up a career-best 1,138 across a healthy 17 games. He will be 31 this season, and the body isn’t taking any less damage. In part, that’s why Jordan Mason was acquired this offseason. The tandem needs to be high-producing in order to lessen McCarthy’s load.

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One aspect of the running game that could be problematic is depth. Ty Chandler has only fallen down the depth chart as time has gone on with Minnesota. If he’s not the answer, or cut, then bringing someone else in to supplement the top two makes a good deal of sense.

Are MN Vikings a contender in the North?

Last season 14 wins didn’t take the division because the Detroit Lions finished going 15-2. It seems unlikely that 11 wins would be enough to get the job done this time around, but it’s possible the group cannibalizes each other a bit.

The Vikings have one of the most talented rosters in football, and their front seven is being called the best in the sport. That still has to translate to wins on the field, and how they accomplish that could be a week-by-week thing.

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Realistically it seems more plausible that the Vikings win 11 games than them losing that many. We’ll start to find out how things look when Minnesota travels to Chicago in Week 1 against the Bears.