Insider Still Doubting Kwesi, MN Vikings Defense…

It’s a new era for the Minnesota Vikings in 2025. At least that’s what Kevin O’Connell and Kwesi Adofo-Mensah are hoping for. J.J. McCarthy missed all of his rookie season, but he’s now the established starting quarterback. It would be great for the franchise if he earned a boatload of money and didn’t give the role back for decades.

Due to a level of uncertainty though, there’s a relatively wide schism in potential outcomes. Things could go good, or they could go bad. This roster is too talented for there to be an extremely negative result though.

Still, coming off 14-wins and the departure of quarterback Sam Darnold, not everyone is a believer.

Bill Barnwell isn’t a believer in MN Vikings defense

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell is among the most prominent NFL Analysts across major sports networks. He has a substantial amount of experience and has covered the game for a long time. That isn’t stopping him from pouring water on the Minnesota Vikings. Picking just five teams most likely to decline in 2025, Minnesota made his cut.

Let’s talk about that defense. Can the Vikings keep their level of play up? While acknowledging they have a great front seven and an excellent coordinator, I’d be a little nervous. They led the league in turnovers (33) and were second in turnover rate (16.6% of opposing drives), trailing only the Bills. Defense is more difficult to sustain than offense, and successful defenses built around high turnover margins are even tougher to maintain from year to year.

Are there reasons to think the Vikings will simply field better defensive talent? I’m not sure…In fact, with the league’s fifth-oldest offense, they were the league’s oldest team on a play-by-play basis. That isn’t inherently disqualifying, but it’s a reality of where they were with their roster construction.

They’ll try to make up for it on the front end, where they … got older by importing two new defensive tackles on the wrong side of 30. Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave were both stars earlier in their career, but they combined to play just 11 games last season because of injuries. Allen and Hargrave are big swings, and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has generally done excellent work in free agency, so there are reasons to be optimistic the Vikings’ front will be even more devastating than it was in 2024.

Bill Barnwell – ESPN

I actually find it hard to argue that the Vikings defense isn’t vastly improved from where it was a year ago. They now have an interior presence that has been missing since the Williams Wall. Sure, Hargrave and Allen are older, but they also had substantial time to recover last season after being hurt.

Related: Vikings’ Free Agent WR Options May Be Dwindling

Questions about the cornerback position are fair. Byron Murphy Jr. is back, and Isaiah Rodgers could be a star, but I’m still not sure trusting Jeff Okudah is the right move. DVOA creator Aaron Schatz sees the position as a need, but the group as a whole looks more complete.

At some point the success of Brian Flores’ efforts, and effectiveness of Adofo-Mensah’s signings, should just be taken at face value.

Threading a needle on MN Vikings success

An interesting thing here is that Barnwell measures success in a very curious manner. Decline is literally defined as anything worse than the year prior. He “hit” on the Baltimore Ravens last year because they went 12-5 instead of 13-4 like the year prior.

Theoretically that is accurate. They won one less game, and advanced one less round in the playoffs. However, that’s a relatively cutthroat way to measure success given the overall quality of the team. It shouldn’t be a stretch to say the Vikings won’t win more than 14 games this season. The opportunity for them to do so is factually minute.

The Vikings are a pretty unique team. The age of their roster and the moves they have made suggest they’re trying to win right now, but they have what essentially amounts to a rookie quarterback leading the way. And while we normally associate debuting quarterbacks with subpar teams and young rosters, McCarthy is taking over a 14-win team, something I’m not sure has ever happened in the modern era. I’m not expecting a dropoff below .500 like the one we saw in 2023, but a record more in line with their 11.1-win point differential from 2024 would make sense.

Bill Barnwell – ESPN

There’s a decent amount of teardown to wind up suggesting a dip of just three wins is a realistic outcome. Honestly, that’s a logical number to arrive at, and the same on Kevin Seifert set the team’s ceiling at.

As Barnwell notes, McCarthy is being given the keys to arguably the nicest car in the used lot. There is always uncertainty with a new quarterback getting under center. Someone has to develop into the next Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen though.

Related: Vikings Set Up for Draft Upgrade After QB Rental Wins Starting Job

Mahomes took over a 10-6 Chiefs team and led them to a 12-6 record and playoff victory in year one. That team had a good coach, solid roster, and a quarterback that was deemed ready. Who knows, maybe McCarthy is next?