Don’t Count the Twins Out on One Top Free Agent

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Roki Sasaki
Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

This offseason is going to be interesting for the Minnesota Twins. It’s also probably going to be somewhat frustrating. Although the payroll won’t decrease, there isn’t much room to add new talent either. That means Derek Falvey must get creative when it comes to talent acquisition.

Roki Sasaki should be Minnesota Twins top target

Coincidentally, Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki has been posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines, and he could give the Minnesota Twins an avenue to add a top-3 starter, without paying a fortune. At just 23 years old, Sasaki is not eligible to sign a major league deal like Yoshinobu Yamamoto did last season.

His deal would have to be of the minor league variety, and more along the lines of Shohei Ohtani’s first pact with the Los Angeles Angels ($2.3 million). Unlike traditional free agency, Minnesota can compete with anyone on the international free agency market.

As a 22-year-old, in Japan, Sasaki owned a 2.35 ERA and racked up 129 strikeouts in just 111 innings. He had a lower 1.78 ERA in 91 innings during 2023, and his 173 strikeouts during 2022 came in just 129 1/3 innings.

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Sasaki was a standout, alongside Shohei Ohtani, for Japan during the World Baseball Classic. He wields a triple-digit fastball, and his pitching development should only ratchet up with major league coaching. Sasaki won’t immediately push for 200 innings, he’d immediately slot in as one of the Minnesota Twins’ better starters.

Although he doesn’t hit like Ohtani, Sasaki is the embodiment of a free agent that is the dream for every front office. The cost is minimal and the upside is immense. Of course he must choose your organization, but that becomes Falvey’s top priority this winter.

How realistic is Roki Sasaki for the Twins?

The assumption is that Sasaki will sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Their payroll outlay is at the top end of Major League Baseball. There should be a slight pause there because money is not close to the determining factor here. Each club has a set international bonus pool. Currently the Dodgers have the largest remaining balance for 2024, but Sasaki’s posting date is not yet determined.

If Chiba Lotte waits until December 15th to post Sasaki, they would open him up to the 2025 International Free Agent class. That would mean the fee paid to the Japanese club would be higher, and Sasaki could sign for a greater amount as well.

Minnesota is in line for a league high $7.5 million pool during that period. For the 2024 period, the Twins have less than $2 million in spending power remaining. MLB’s Mark Feinsand shared a comment from an American League executive that understands just how this process will go.

“Teams are going to have to sell themselves, not just write the biggest check. It still may not be a level playing field because every team won’t have what he’s looking for, but the size of your payroll isn’t necessarily as important.”

Anonymous executive on Roki Sasaki’s free agency (MLB.com)

West coast teams are still going to have the best shot. Los Angeles has Ohtani, and the San Diego Padres have signed Japanese players in the past. That said, Minnesota did dabble relatively deeply with Ohtani. Thad Levine’s familiarity with Yu Darvish, and his time with the Texas Rangers, likely played into that.

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He is no longer with the organization, but it wasn’t until Ohtani cut down his final list that Minnesota bowed out. Ultimately they traded bonus pool money to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for prospect David Banuelos. Jerry Dipoto believed his club was in contention for Ohtani.

The pitch made by the Twins will be an interesting one. They don’t currently have a single player from Japan on the 40-man roster. Sasaki probably doesn’t know that Minnesota exists either. Still, whatever presentation they can make, they should be seeking to hit out of the park.

With limited spending and a need to improve, there is no player that would be a better fit for the Twins’ circumstances. Fans shouldn’t hold their breath for Sasaki to choose the Twins. That doesn’t mean that Minnesota doesn’t have a legitimate chance, and even their self-imposed restrictions won’t hold them back.

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