More Trade Steam Rises on MN Twins’ Top Pitchers

This offseason has a chance to go two drastically different ways for the Minnesota Twins. As things stand they are projected to be under $100 million from a payroll perspective. That can drop even more if Derek Falvey opts to trade Pablo Lopez, and it will fall off a cliff if that forces Byron Buxton to reconsider his future.

There isn’t a significant reason to trade Joe Ryan, but the Twins may look past being competitive and go into a full-on rebuild. New manager Derek Shelton wouldn’t touch that word during his introductory press conference Tuesday, but offseason decisions will highlight the future direction.

Minnesota Twins may control pitching trade market

Tarik Skubal is the best pitcher on the planet right now, and the Detroit Tigers could trade him if they don’t think a deal is possible. That isn’t seen as likely right now though, and that leaves Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan as premier pitching trade pieces. Both Jeff Passan and Buster Olney have suggested Minnesota may control the top of the market.

Because of the looming labor situation, some younger stars who are under team control in 2027 before reaching free agency could be shoved into the trade market by circumstances this winter.

The best example: Joe Ryan, who is eligible for free agency after the ’27 season. Typically, the Twins could wait until next summer’s trade deadline to consider taking offers for Ryan. However, with many executives believing that at least some of the ’27 season is in jeopardy because of the labor strife, placing an appropriate trade valuation on Ryan will be much, much more complicated next July; teams might not be willing to part with significant return if they believe the ’27 season will be truncated or lost. So if teams want to get proper return on players like Ryan, they could be better served to take offers this winter, rather than waiting until next summer.

Buster Olney – ESPN

Most of the bigger names that will draw interest are pitchers: Minnesota right-handers Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez, Washington left-hander MacKenzie Gore and St. Louis right-hander Sonny Gray.

Jeff Passan – ESPN

Last season Joe Ryan finished with a 3.42 ERA (3.74 FIP) that was inflated down the stretch. He looked the part of a Cy Young candidate at times, and that’s what an acquiring team would be looking to capitalize on. Making just $3 million in 2025, Ryan will get a bump in arbitration, but he’s under team control through the 2027 season.

Unlike Ryan, dealing Pablo Lopez would be more reflective of a salary-motivated move. He is set to make $21.75 million each of the next two seasons. His 2.74 ERA (3.19 FIP) was a career-best, but he made just 14 starts due to injury.

Return for MN Twins pitcher would need to be substantial

When the Minnesota Twins sold off nearly 40% of the roster at the trade deadline, they did well with the Jhoan Duran move. A top 100 prospect in Eduardo Tait being paired with Mick Abel was a good get. Ryan and Lopez should both net something more.

Ryan is cheap for another two seasons and is a legitimate top-of-the-rotation arm. While Lopez costs plenty, his salary would be easily surpassed if he were a free agent on the open market.

Joe Ryan, Nasty 80mph Curveball…and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/DcacoJYetN

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 31, 2025

It’s plausible that Minnesota simply wants to start over and look for new talent to shuffle the roster. If that’s the case though, then Derek Falvey can’t miss on what should be an absolute haul for either of his top arms.