Do the Minnesota Twins Really Have a Top 10 MLB Starting Rotation…?
It is no secret the Minnesota Twins are coming off of a frustrating season. A large reason for this was the Twins starting rotation. Entering 2024, Minnesota was coming off of their first playoff game and series win since 2004.
They had over a 90% chance to make the playoffs in August and still found a way to squander their spot in the standings. Nonetheless, the AL Central is wide open and the Twins are projected to finish near the top, right along with the Cleveland Guardians. How is that possible?
Twins rotation looks solid for 2025
According to ESPN.com, the Minnesota Twins have the 7th best starting rotation going into the 2025 MLB season. This is an interesting take as the Twins starters last season ranked 21st in the league with a 4.36 ERA. However, the author, Bradford Doolittle, highlights the Twins’ ability to develop minor league pitching, as well as their ace Pablo Lopez.
7. Minnesota Twins
Rotation index: 106.7
Ranks — Stars: 4 | Depth: 12 | Length: 20 | Dominance: 4
Top 6: 1. Pablo Lopez (Rating: 115), 2. Bailey Ober (111), 3. Joe Ryan (116), 4. Simeon Woods Richardson (97), 5. Zebby Matthews (103), 6. David Festa (105)
The Twins’ pitching program is a good one. Its status in this group would be harmed if rumors about a potential trade of Lopez were to come to fruition, but part of having a good pitching program is having the ability to come up with worthy replacements. Still, can’t a team that currently projects to win the AL Central hang on to its ace?
Bradford Doolittle – ESPN
Having an ace as well as elite pitching development is crucial to compiling a top 10 staff. The Minnesota Twins have both of these and therefore could very well have the 7th best staff going into next season even though they had a rough year in 2024.
| Po. | Starters | WAR | W | L | ERA | GS | IP | SO | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pablo López | 2.5 | 15 | 10 | 4.08 | 32 | 185.1 | 198 | 3.65 |
| 2 | Bailey Ober | 2.9 | 12 | 9 | 3.98 | 31 | 178.2 | 191 | 3.82 |
| 3 | Joe Ryan | 2.3 | 7 | 7 | 3.60 | 23 | 135.0 | 147 | 3.44 |
| 4 | Simeon Woods Richardson | 2.0 | 5 | 5 | 4.17 | 28 | 133.2 | 117 | 4.12 |
| 5 | Chris Paddack | 0.4 | 5 | 3 | 4.99 | 17 | 88.1 | 79 | 4.18 |
| 6 | David Festa | 0.4 | 2 | 6 | 4.90 | 13 | 64.1 | 77 | 3.76 |
| Team Totals | 14.2 | 82 | 80 | 4.26 | 162 | 1440.1 | 1500 | 3.84 |
The Twins have a bit of a three headed monster on their staff in Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, and Joe Ryan. These three all had productive seasons in 2024, though Ryan’s summer was cut short due to injury. Minnesota will need these three dudes to be great, if Doolittle’s top 7 projections are to come true.
Pablo Lopez
Let’s start with Pablo Lopez. Last season, with Sonny Gray gone, Lopez was thrust into a leadership and rotation ace role that he had not yet seen in his career. At times, he seemed to thrive in that role. Other times, it appeared to weigh on him just a bit, especially on the mound.
But while Lopez did have a bit of a drop in statistical production last season, one thing is still clear. Pablo is an elite MLB pitcher in his prime. In 2024, the 28-year-old ace still managed to post a 9.62 K/9, and a 2.0 BB/9, which were the best marks in his career.
Target Field was not empty last night as Pablo Lopez and the #MNTwins dominated Sonny Gray.
— Twins Gems (@TwinsGems) August 25, 2024
7.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K
It’s the fifth time this season where Lopez tossed seven innings while allowing one or zero runs. https://t.co/TKf2ULECuD pic.twitter.com/X5PBlqTsQ4
His 3.65 FIP and 3.67 xERA (expected earned run average) alludes to Lopez being relatively unlucky last season, as well. Lopez also ranked in the 89th percentile in chase %. While our ace did have some struggles in 2024, a deeper look tells us he has a great chance to bounce back in 2025.
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And without a doubt the Minnesota Twins need him to do so, especially if Bradford’s projection above is going to come to fruition. Every really good rotation needs a top of the line ace. We know Pablo Lopez can be that, and the Twins need him to prove that this summer.
Bailey Ober
Bailey Ober followed up a rock solid 2023 season with a rock solid 2024 season. He posted a 2.9 WAR on the year, the exact same as 2023. Ober also recorded a career high with 9.62 K/9. He has now posted two consecutive seasons with a sub-4 ERA.
Bailey Ober strikes out the side 😤
— MLB (@MLB) July 28, 2024
He now has a career-high 11 Ks on the day. pic.twitter.com/vkgLh9gsE6
There is no reason to believe Ober won’t have another consistent year for the Twins in 2025. And the Minnesota Twins need him. Let’s be real, if the Twins starting rotation is going to prove Doolittle right with his rankings, Bailey Ober must take yet another step in his development. So must the next starter in line behind him…
Joe Ryan
After a rough 2023 season in which Ryan posted a 4.54 ERA, he bounced back in 2024. Ryan posted a 3.6 ERA and continued to pound the strike zone, posting a career low 1.5 BB/9. However, advanced statistics suggest he had an even better year than his numbers show.
Ryan posted a 2.87 xERA, according to Baseball Savant. That’s almost a full run lower than his actual ERA of 3.6. Ryan also ranked in the 86th percentile in xBA (expected batting average) posting a line of .205. These numbers represent how well Ryan pitched last season, even if his stats don’t reflect it.
The Joe Ryan Experience: Beautiful in the Bronx. #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/TbXEFq3iTH
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) April 14, 2023
Joe’s season was cut short in August due to injury, but he may very well be the X factor that makes this a top 10 staff in 2025. If he can post an ERA around 3 next year (with normal FIP and HR/9 rates, etc), this staff could return to something that looks much more like it did in 2023, when the Twins had one of the best rotations in all of baseball.
Can Minnesota Twins rotation really be top 10?
I think Bradford knows what we know about Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, not to mention the other young pitchers who played a part in the back of the Minnesota Twins starting rotation last season, like Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa and Zebby Matthews.
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This is a very talented rotation. The advanced numbers show that. Now, can they stay consistently good and healthy for 162 games, or something close? Only Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson exceeded 25 starts in 2024.
Youngsters both on the pitching staff and in the field wore down, as the season wore into September, which led to one of the most impressive collapses in franchise history. If the Minnesota Twins are going to be competitive in 2025, they need a top 10 rotation, like ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle projects them to have.
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