Insider Pegs MN Timberwolves as a Team to Fall Short

This offseason the Minnesota Timberwolves didn’t do much heavy lifting when it comes to the roster. Tim Connelly largely has opted to run the same group back. That’s not the worst plan of attack when it has led to consecutive Western Conference Finals trips.

There has been some turnover in the front office. Internal staff firings were followed by a new CEO, and most recently the extension of Connelly himself.

Chris Finch still has Anthony Edwards, and the team’s youth should theoretically be poised to take another step forward. That doesn’t hit the mark for everyone though when projecting the outcome of their 2025-26 season.

A hiccup on the horizon for Minnesota Timberwoles

It’s difficult to have a better season than a trip to the Western Conference Finals. Your options include winning the West or winning and NBA Championship. Either outcomes are desirable, but there isn’t much room for error. That’s what has ESPN senior writer Tim Bontemps concerned about Minnesota.

Minnesota has surpassed 51 wins just twice in franchise history: in 2004 and 2024. Last season, Minnesota reached its second straight West finals but won 49 games and finished sixth in the standings.

This is a Timberwolves team that lost Nickeil Alexander-Walker in free agency this summer, requiring youngsters such as Terrence Shannon Jr. and Jaylen Clark to pick up a much bigger load while still leaning heavily on Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert. If either aging veteran misses any time, the Timberwolves don’t have a clear answer to replace them. Naz Reid, who got a five-year, $125 million deal to come back as a free agent this summer, isn’t strong enough defensively to make up for Gobert’s absence, and last year’s No. 8 pick, Rob Dillingham, remains a huge question mark in his ability to eventually take over for Conley.

Minnesota, behind Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle, a flexible roster and Chris Finch’s coaching, will still be a difficult out next spring. But until then, given the strength of the West and the questions on the roster, improving from last year’s win total could prove difficult.

ESPN

It’s interesting that Bontemps suggests improving the record from last season is a difficult measure, but the forecast placed on Minnesota is a 51-31 outcome. That would be a two-win improvement in the regular season. The standings order came down to the final day last season, and those two games will likely matter.

If there’s a question mark that Bontemps nails, it’s Rob Dillingham. It still seems surprising that Bones Hyland landed the last roster spot as opposed to a bigger swing. There is a lot being left on the shoulders of Mike Conley, and he already showed that was a mistake last season.

Related: MN Timberwolves Sign Familiar Guard for Final Roster Spot

Terrence Shannon Jr. showed he was the real deal down the stretch last season. He made a mockery of the summer league. Already 25 years old, there’s no real reason to continue using kid gloves with him. Finch needs Dillingham and Jaylen Clark to take another step forward, and that may ultimately be too much to ask.

Given what was paid to Nickeil Alexander-Walker though, it’s unlikely that Minnesota didn’t make the more fiscally responsible decision. This team has the pieces to make the playoffs in the top-half of the conference. They now also have the experience to know what it takes once there.

Third time’s the charm for Minnesota

If it’s frustrating that the Minnesota Timberwolves have come this close for two consecutive seasons and not gotten the job done, then you’ve probably forgotten franchise history. This team has been around since 1989 and spent more years being a doormat than a contender.

There is virtually no path for the 2025-26 iteration to be a doormat. They are going to be a contender. To what extent that plays out is the only question.

Related: New MN Timberwolves Owners Make First Big Hire

At the end of the day, the Timberwolves do have two starting roles leveraged towards aging players. They also don’t need to put a significant focus on the regular season short of playoff positioning. With the roster where it stands, and the assumed blessing to add, new owners Alex Rodriguez and Marc Lore could celebrate a nice inaugural season.