3 Minnesota Timberwolves Problems Solved vs the Nuggets

NBA: Denver Nuggets Nikola Jokic at Minnesota Timberwolves Rudy Gobert
Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Timberwolves team that made it to the Western Conference Finals for the first time in franchise history might feel lightyears away. But these Minnesota Timberwolves aren’t that far from replicating that success.

The Timberwolves proved it with a whoopin’ of Nikola Jokić and the Denver Nuggets at Target Center, Saturday afternoon. Despite Anthony Edwards playing sick, Minnesota never trailed and ran away with the game, winning 133-104.

Here are three huge problems that have been plaguing the Timberwolves and how they were solved this weekend against the Nuggets.

NBA: Denver Nuggets Nikola Jokic at Minnesota Timberwolves Julius Randle
Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Solved: The Minnesota Timberwolves’ paint points problem

Last season the Minnesota Timberwolves ranked 13th with 50 paint points per game. This season they’re 24th, averaging 44.3 paint points per game. On Saturday, Minnesota set a season high with 72 points in the paint. That accounted for 55.8 percent of the Timberwolves’ scoring.

Now Denver’s defense has taken a significant step back this season, falling from second in defensive rating last year to 16th prior to Saturday’s beatdown. They fell two more spots after the blowout loss to Minnesota. That doesn’t mean the Timberwolves shouldn’t attack the paint against better defenses, though.

The Timberwolves made it a point to get Rudy Gobert involved offensively early and often. It paid off in a big way. Gobert was more active on both ends of the floor as a result, and the Timberwolves got off to a fast start. Everyone’s more open when Gobert is an offensive threat, but you gotta get him the ball early to establish that threat.

Julius Randle was another big contributor to solving the paint points problem. He took two bad shots in the first quarter, but when he took the ball to the basket, he got good looks and/or free throw opportunities. He needs to seek out more opportunities to set a screen and force a switch to get a mismatch he can back down in the paint.

Related: Timberwolves Tumbling Down NBA Power Rankings

If the Timberwolves make it a point to attack the paint early and often, they’re more likely to start fast and not lose the offensive energy of Gobert and Randle by putting them in positions to succeed. If they start fast, they might avoid another problem like they did against Denver.

Solved: The Minnesota Timberwolves’ clutch time problem

The Timberwolves have played 29 games featuring clutch time, which is the last five minutes of regulation or overtime when the score is within five points. That’s most in the NBA. Minnesota is 13-16 in those games, which ranks 20th in the league. Last season the Timberwolves played the 18th-most clutch-time games and posted the eighth-best record in those games.

Opponents have picked on Julius Randle defensively in clutch time, and it’s worked. It’s worked so well that Timberwolves head coach Chris Finch has cut Randle’s minutes in the fourth quarter.

Related: Rumor: Julius Randle Disgruntled After Timberwolves Cut His Minutes

Now with Donte DiVincenzo hurt, trading Conley is extremely unlikely since he’s been better defensively than rookie Rob Dillingham in clutch time. But Conley is 0-for-10 in clutch time this season after shooting it better than Karl-Anthony Towns last season.

Minnesota Timberwolves 2023-24 clutch time stats per NBA.com

Regardless of who’s on the floor, the Timberwolves cease to move the ball during the most crucial moments of games. Minnesota ranks 28th in the league when it comes to assisted field goals made in clutch time (42.9 percent). Only the Sacramento Kings and Portland Trail Blazers move the ball that badly in clutch time.

The Timberwolves rank second in the league with 47.4 percent of their clutch-time, three-point field goals made coming unassisted. They rank 25th in percentage of two-point field goals attempted in clutch time (45.4 percent).

Solved: The Minnesota Timberwolves’ isolation problem

That’s simply too much isolation offense to not get more shots closer to the basket, or better yet, at the foul line. It’s typical Chris Finch “let-the-dudes-play” isolation offense in the closing minutes of games. Problem is the dudes ain’t good enough to do that anymore.

The Timberwolves have the highest turnover frequency in isolation – by a lot. Minnesota turns over the ball in isolation 17 percent of the time. That’s 1.4 percent more than the Washington Wizards. The effing Wizards! Guess how many turnovers the Wolves had vs the Nuggets? Four. That’s winning basketball.

In 2024-25, Minnesota’s score frequency on isolation plays is also second-worst in the league (36.4 percent). Only Atlanta scores at a lower rate on isolation plays. The Timberwolves shoot just 41.1 percent on isolation plays. Only Atlanta, Utah, and New Orleans shoot worse.

Related: Timberwolves Insiders: Don’t Hold Your Breath for a Julius Randle Trade

Despite all this, Minnesota runs isolation at the sixth-highest rate in the NBA (8.5 percent). The Timberwolves would be better served by running isolation at a league average rate around six percent or less. That would reduce turnovers, increase possessions, and result in better shots.

So the solution isn’t trading Julius Randle. The solution is attacking the paint from the jump to avoid clutch time altogether, which is exactly what happened on Saturday night against Denver. Then, it’s resisting the urge to run isolation offense unless mismatches present themselves. Chris Finch can figure this out with the players he’s got. Saturday’s beatdown of Denver is evidence of that.

But if you’d like to trade Julius Randle, we’ll be discussing 10 Julius Randle trades tonight @foulplaybyplay on YouTube at 8 p.m. Central time. Give us your questions and comments in the chat!

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