The MLB Draft Lottery was introduced just two years ago (December, 2023), and it immediately paid dividends for the Minnesota Twins. That winter, they entered the lottery with the 13th-best odds (out of 18) to land the top pick in the 2024 MLB Draft, but left with the fifth overall selection, jumping EIGHT spots.

They went on to select Walker Jenkins with that pick. He’s been one of baseball’s top prospects since that day. In 2026, he’s expected to start the season at Triple-A, but if all goes well, he could very well make his big league debut in 2026.

Minnesota Twins Drop in 2026 MLB Draft Lottery

Last winter, they weren’t so lucky, moving from the 12th position to 16th. On Tuesday, the MN Twins came in trailing only the Chicago White Sox, in their likelihood to secure the top selection, one of the few silver linings to a 92-loss season.

Unfortunately, the ping-pong balls did not bounce the Twins’ way. Instead of rising up to that top selection, they moved one spot in the opposite direction, falling from No. 2 overall to No. 3 overall.

The official 2026 #MLBDraft order 👏

(MLB x @Nike) pic.twitter.com/wqtWP8yBEE

— MLB (@MLB) December 9, 2025

Chicago retained the top pick in the 2026 MLB Draft, while Tampa Bay leapfrogged Minnesota. The Rays entered the lottery with the seventh-best odds (3.03%) of landing the top pick, jumping five total spots to No. 2.

Missing out on the top pick is disappointing, especially with UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky — an organizational gamechanger — viewed as the consensus top prospect. Instead of putting on a Twins uniform, he’ll land with AL Central Division rival, Chicago.

Several other shortstops are also projected near the top of the draft, including Grady Emerson (Texas, HS), Justin Lebron (Alabama), and Jacob Lombard (Florida, SS).

jacob lombard (gulliver prep, fl) is the top prep athlete on the board.

über defender at short. 106.8 mph exit velo. https://t.co/CBJx6CL3G4

— parker hageman (@HagemanParker) December 9, 2025

Lombard is the son of longtime baseball executive George Lombard and the brother of George Lombard Jr., a top prospect in the Yankees’ system. The elder Lombard was previously mentioned as a potential managerial candidate for the Twins before Derek Shelton was hired.

Another name to watch is Georgia Tech outfielder Drew Buress, a high-end power bat who could appeal to Minnesota if the organization believes its farm system is already flush with middle-infield talent.

The 2026 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star Break this summer. Major League Baseball will also hold the Rule 5 Draft on Wednesday, where the Twins could be at risk of losing multiple players.

With 90 losses now on the ledger, and vacation plans booked, there is no benefit to winning games anymore. In fact, it would be more beneficial for the MN Twins to lose as many games as possible during this weekend’s season finale.

Draft lottery odds taking shape for MN Twins

Major League Baseball instituted the MLB Draft Lottery as part of the new CBA established in 2022. The first lottery took place in 2023, and the Minnesota Twins immediately benefitted, jumping up about 10 spots, from the mid-teens all the way to fifth, where they selected top prospect, Walker Jenkins.

Heading into Friday’s night’s action, the Twins have the third-best odds to land the top overall pick, but they can increase their position by finishing with a worse record than the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have the same 69-90 record. Doing so would give them a 5.6% better chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick in 2026.

The Colorado Rockies, Washington Nationals, and Los Angeles Angels are all ineligible for the top pick, due to rules in place that do not allow teams to get a top-six in consecutive drafts.

Minnesota’s opponent this weekend, the Philadelphia Phillies, hold the second-best record in all of baseball, at 94-65. They need a sweep, plus lots of help (Brewers get swept), to gain the No. 1 overall seed in the National League, but the possibility means they will be trying hard for a win, at least on Friday night.

Is tanking even worth thinking about for the Twins?

Pittsburgh is on the road against the Atlanta Braves, who may be motivated to improve their own MLB Draft Lottery position, but do not have a chance at the postseason. Ultimately, tanking can largely prove fruitless with the MLB Amateur Draft. It’s not like the NFL or NBA, where top talents make an impact immediately.

Last season the Twins picked 16th overall and went with college shortstop Marek Houston. He finished the season with High-A Cedar Rapids. The 2024 pick, at 21st overall, was Kaelen Culpepper. He was just named the Twins Minor League Hitter of the Year.

Kaelen Culpepper (@Twins' 2024 first-rounder) in 20 Double-A @WindSurgeICT contests after this two-run homer:

• .361 AVG
• .984 OPS
• 1+ hit in 17 G pic.twitter.com/CaKMwggys9

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) July 23, 2025

With that being said, all of the Minnesota Twins’ most exciting prospects in recent memory were indeed top 10 picks, including Royce Lewis, Walker Jenkins and Brooks Lee.

If you go a bit further back, the same can be said about Byron Buxton and Joe Mauer. If there is anything, outside of winning big league games, that can get this fanbase going, it’s top prospects. And at this point, losing doesn’t really hurt anything.