Darnold is now in Seattle and it’s the J.J. McCarthy show in Minnesota. A new quarterback, with zero NFL experience, leaves the possible outcomes spanning a very wide gambit.

General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah still spent the offseason building the Vikings roster to win now. That doesn’t mean everyone believes they will.

Barnwell says Minnesota Vikings miss playoffs

Although the Vikings should be among the contenders in the NFC North, the division is going to have a battle at the top. ESPN insider Bill Barnwell says this year Minnesota will miss the playoffs.

Vikings fans are sick of hearing about their record in one-score games, but when you go from 9-0 to 4-8 then to 8-1 across Kevin O’Connell’s first three seasons in charge, it’s going to be a significant part of the conversation. We know that’s a meaningful predictor of what happens next, so it’s tough to imagine the Vikings playing at the same level and getting the same results.

Can they keep up what we saw last season? A thrilling defense led the league in turnovers, as the Vikings jumped from 19th in turnover rate to second. That’s difficult to sustain, especially with the Vikings turning over a chunk of their secondary. This was the oldest team in football on a snap-weighted age basis, and after adding several new starters in free agency and making only three top-100 picks over the past two years, it’s tough to count on O’Connell’s team getting dramatically younger this season.

One of the places where they will get younger, of course, is at quarterback, with J.J. McCarthy taking over as the starter after missing all of his rookie year with a knee injury. The Vikings invested heavily along the line of scrimmage this offseason, and they probably won’t need to lean on their quarterback as much as they did on early downs with Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins. But we just don’t know whether McCarthy will be an upgrade on the passers who preceded him. My instinct is that he’s something close, but instead, a defensive decline and a less fortunate year in one-score contests push the Vikings back toward the middle of the NFC pack.

ESPN

It’s fair that results in one-score games typically determine the outcome of a season. In two-of-three years as a head coach though, Kevin O’Connell has had his team perform at a high level in those spots. In those two seasons Minnesota won 13 and 14 games respectively. The year in which the Vikings went 4-8, O’Connell had to work with four different quarterback.

McCarthy is an unknown, but it’s impossible to ignore his track record and how many people believe he will thrive. Minnesota will put that on display in primetime against the Chicago Bears in Week 1. If things go well, it’s going to be tough to stop the hype train.

Related: MN Vikings First Depth Chart Reveals Some Answers, More Questions

Does age matter for MN Vikings?

Barnwell also notes the age of the Minnesota Vikings roster. That matters from a team-building and sustainability outlook, but it has little bearing on a yearly snapshot. The Vikings need Will Fries, Ryan Kelly, Javon Hargrave, and Jonathan Allen to be healthy. Because they weren’t last year, or are another year older, doesn’t mean anything for 2025.

The Vikings cornerback situation still scares me. They are all in on Jeff Okudah, and safety usage will be heavy. That room may not turn the ball over as much, but the front seven is going to hunt quarterbacks at a breakneck speed.

Dallas Turner’s turn to get to Drake Maye pic.twitter.com/zqQ431mOwm

— Sean Borman (@SeanBormanNFL) August 14, 2025

Allowing Brian Flores to have this much talent lined up in pass rush schemes is probably unfair. The defensive unit as a whole should be among the best in football, and it’s hard to envision the same fears Barnwell has for a step backwards.

Related: Former MN Viking Fought the Law and Lost Again

If there is an age concern in Minnesota, it’s only the youth that McCarthy brings to the table. Should he pass the challenge though, that becomes an asset and the outlook gets flipped on its head pretty quickly.

Due to a level of uncertainty though, there’s a relatively wide schism in potential outcomes. Things could go good, or they could go bad. This roster is too talented for there to be an extremely negative result though.

Still, coming off 14-wins and the departure of quarterback Sam Darnold, not everyone is a believer.

Bill Barnwell isn’t a believer in MN Vikings defense

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell is among the most prominent NFL Analysts across major sports networks. He has a substantial amount of experience and has covered the game for a long time. That isn’t stopping him from pouring water on the Minnesota Vikings. Picking just five teams most likely to decline in 2025, Minnesota made his cut.

Let’s talk about that defense. Can the Vikings keep their level of play up? While acknowledging they have a great front seven and an excellent coordinator, I’d be a little nervous. They led the league in turnovers (33) and were second in turnover rate (16.6% of opposing drives), trailing only the Bills. Defense is more difficult to sustain than offense, and successful defenses built around high turnover margins are even tougher to maintain from year to year.

Are there reasons to think the Vikings will simply field better defensive talent? I’m not sure…In fact, with the league’s fifth-oldest offense, they were the league’s oldest team on a play-by-play basis. That isn’t inherently disqualifying, but it’s a reality of where they were with their roster construction.

They’ll try to make up for it on the front end, where they … got older by importing two new defensive tackles on the wrong side of 30. Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave were both stars earlier in their career, but they combined to play just 11 games last season because of injuries. Allen and Hargrave are big swings, and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has generally done excellent work in free agency, so there are reasons to be optimistic the Vikings’ front will be even more devastating than it was in 2024.

Bill Barnwell – ESPN

I actually find it hard to argue that the Vikings defense isn’t vastly improved from where it was a year ago. They now have an interior presence that has been missing since the Williams Wall. Sure, Hargrave and Allen are older, but they also had substantial time to recover last season after being hurt.

Related: Vikings’ Free Agent WR Options May Be Dwindling

Questions about the cornerback position are fair. Byron Murphy Jr. is back, and Isaiah Rodgers could be a star, but I’m still not sure trusting Jeff Okudah is the right move. DVOA creator Aaron Schatz sees the position as a need, but the group as a whole looks more complete.

At some point the success of Brian Flores’ efforts, and effectiveness of Adofo-Mensah’s signings, should just be taken at face value.

Threading a needle on MN Vikings success

An interesting thing here is that Barnwell measures success in a very curious manner. Decline is literally defined as anything worse than the year prior. He “hit” on the Baltimore Ravens last year because they went 12-5 instead of 13-4 like the year prior.

Theoretically that is accurate. They won one less game, and advanced one less round in the playoffs. However, that’s a relatively cutthroat way to measure success given the overall quality of the team. It shouldn’t be a stretch to say the Vikings won’t win more than 14 games this season. The opportunity for them to do so is factually minute.

The Vikings are a pretty unique team. The age of their roster and the moves they have made suggest they’re trying to win right now, but they have what essentially amounts to a rookie quarterback leading the way. And while we normally associate debuting quarterbacks with subpar teams and young rosters, McCarthy is taking over a 14-win team, something I’m not sure has ever happened in the modern era. I’m not expecting a dropoff below .500 like the one we saw in 2023, but a record more in line with their 11.1-win point differential from 2024 would make sense.

Bill Barnwell – ESPN

There’s a decent amount of teardown to wind up suggesting a dip of just three wins is a realistic outcome. Honestly, that’s a logical number to arrive at, and the same on Kevin Seifert set the team’s ceiling at.

As Barnwell notes, McCarthy is being given the keys to arguably the nicest car in the used lot. There is always uncertainty with a new quarterback getting under center. Someone has to develop into the next Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen though.

Related: Vikings Set Up for Draft Upgrade After QB Rental Wins Starting Job

Mahomes took over a 10-6 Chiefs team and led them to a 12-6 record and playoff victory in year one. That team had a good coach, solid roster, and a quarterback that was deemed ready. Who knows, maybe McCarthy is next?

Last season Sam Darnold was inserted as the starter and Kevin O’Connell positioned him with offensive talent to reel off 14 wins. It got Darnold paid by the Seattle Seahawks, and it’s why there should be a substantial level of optimism for McCarthy’s success as well.

Despite the level of talent on the offensive side of the ball for Minnesota, one insider is willing to argue against them being a top five unit.

Bill Barnwell stops short on MN Vikings offensive weapons

Few NFL insiders are more well-known than ESPN’s Bill Barnwell. He published a ranking of all 32 NFL teams based solely on their offensive weapons. That is, the wide receivers, running backs, and tight ends. Barnwell outlined the process as a valuation of 2025 performance, taking into account injury and suspension history, as well as weighting wide receivers the heaviest.

The Minnesota Vikings landed sixth, one spot behind where Barnwell had them last season.

“A true superstar receiver goes a long way, as Justin Jefferson is one of the two best wideouts in the game alongside Ja’Marr Chase. The Vikings star combines elite volume with efficiency (2.6 yards per route run), and while he benefits from a coach in Kevin O’Connell who does a great job of creating opportunities and space, Jefferson hasn’t exactly had Joe Burrow at quarterback in Minnesota. Jefferson is a Hall of Fame-caliber talent and 26 years old.

The players around him might not be as sturdy as they seemed a year ago. Jordan Addison averaged 1.8 yards per route run in his second season, but there’s a distinct possibility the 23-year-old will be suspended for part of the 2025 season after he’s tried on DUI charges this month. T.J. Hockenson is healthy after missing part of the 2024 season while recovering from a torn ACL, but the former Lions first-rounder didn’t score a touchdown and saw his efficiency retreat to where it had been with Detroit (1.7 YPRR) versus where it stood in Minnesota before the injury in 2023 (2.0).

Aaron Jones Sr. racked up 1,546 yards from scrimmage in his debut season with the Vikings, but he wasn’t great near the goal line and fumbled five times, including a midseason stretch with four fumbles across seven quarters. The Vikings have suggested they want to ease the burden on Jones by giving meaningful work to Jordan Mason, who was acquired from the 49ers this offseason. Mason was wildly efficient in San Francisco, but that team is running back heaven, and he also fumbled three times on 164 touches in 2024. I’d expect this offense to keep humming, but a lot of the players around Jefferson have something to prove.”

Bill Barnwell – ESPN

Barwell does do a great job of outlining where he thinks the Vikings have warts. It’s fair to be concerned about Jordan Addison’s possible suspension, and Minnesota doesn’t have a great upside play at WR3 unless Tai Felton or someone else overtakes Jalen Nailor.

It’s also fair to criticize Hockenson for his slide, or be leary of Aaron Jones repeating his yardage performance last season. That said, those two may benefit most from a young quarterback behind a revamped offensive line, and the addition of Jordan Mason lessening the load.

Related: Minnesota Vikings Latest Valuation is Astonishing

In total, with the weight applied to Jefferson and room for growth from Addison, Hockenson, and Mason, the Vikings being outside the top five seems like a stretch.

Who has better playmakers than the Minnesota Vikings?

While it’s an issue for me to see the MN Vikings outside of the top five, it’s more peculiar when looking at which teams are ahead of them. I have now qualms about the Philadelphia Eagles being number one. Los Angeles (5), San Francisco (4), Cincinnati (3), and Detroit (2) all seem arguable though.

The Rams do not have the tight end strength that Hockenson and Josh Oliver represent. Brandon Aiyuk doesn’t clear Addison as a top threat and Christian McCaffrey is always hurt. Cincinnati doesn’t have the running back room or tight end talent. Detroit put up points in bunches last season, but still need to substantiate that it’s real without Ben Johnson pulling the strings.

Related: Minnesota Vikings GOAT Healthy and Coming Back

Of course there’s a certain level of homerism when it comes to the pushback, but Minnesota’s talent on paper is as good or better than all of those teams. At the end of the day they still possess an elite group of playmakers. Kevin O’Connell should have plenty of ability to let them work with a new offensive line that will give McCarthy a chance.

Revisiting these rankings after the season, and seeing where the Minnesota Vikings check in next year, will be worth keeping tabs on.