Nonetheless, some models trend more accurately than others — just like some tend to like the Derek Falvey-operated Minnesota Twins teams more than others.

2026 ZiPS Projections: Minnesota Twins

Dan Szymborski, now of FanGraphs, built his ZiPS algorithm over 20 years ago. In the decades since, it has become one of the most trusted and followed offseason models across the baseball world.

Last season the Minnesota Twins finished with an ugly 70-92 record. They aren’t expected to add significantly to the payroll, but no longer plan to continue the roster deconstruction process that went into overdrive before the 2025 MLB Trade Deadline.

ZiPS has hope for Twins offense

With the addition of 1B/DH Josh Bell, how do the Twins project for the upcoming season, according to the initial 2026 ZiPS model? With a bullpen yet to be rebuilt, Minnesota is currently projected to finish next season with 78-84 wins — right around .500.

There’s no doubting, however, that over at FanGraphs… Szymborski has a quiet optimism about him, when breaking down what his algorithm has to say about the MN Twins early this offseason.

The easiest thing for people to do is set this past season as a baseline and understand that this team isn’t going to be much better in 2026. But using last season’s record as a baseline is generally a poor idea, as there’s a good argument that a lot of the 2025 Twins underperformed their actual ability.

It’s the same kind of shortcut reasoning that caused people to underrate the Blue Jays going into this season, assuming that the Jays had to build up from their actual 74-win total in 2024 rather than from something closer to 81-83 wins, which was about Toronto’s true talent level.

The 2025 Twins were better than a 70-92 team, but they do have some problems with their offense that they may or may not address between now and next season. If the season started today, the Twins look like a roughly .500 team, with their expected win total somewhere in the 78-84 range, but they’re close enough to good that if they were to hit their upside scenario, they could be an interesting contender. 

Dan Szymborski – Fangraphs

There is plenty of offseason left, and while we shouldn’t be expecting earth-shattering moves from the Minnesota Twins, they will certainly do more. Thankfully, this front office has a history of assembling cheap bullpens on the fly. Over the next few months, that reputation will be put to the test.

The lineup is in a weird spot. There is a glut of left fielders, most of which are left-handed. ZiPS is not at all high on Brooks Lee (0.5 fWAR projection) seeing him as a less valuable asset in 2026 than a lineup tweener like Kody Clemens, or even backup catcher Alex Jackson.

Lee’s 79 OPS+ and .236/.285/.370 slash line last season pushed his value down across the league, algorithms included. Unfortunately, the former first round pick will have to prove ZiPS wrong because the Twins can’t afford to go out and sign a better shortstop.

On the flip side, Szymborski’s 2026 algorithm loves some of Minnesota’s up-and-coming prospects, projecting both Kaelen Culpepper (1.9 fWAR) and Emmanuel Rodriguez (1.3 fWAR) to have breakout big league seasons.

Depending on how they look, come Spring, it’s possible we could see either the young shortstop and/or outfielder sooner than later. If you trust ZiPS, then that’ll certainly be the expectation when the Minnesota Twins assemble in Fort Myers, come February.

Algorithm loves 2026 MN Twins starting pitching

Keeping Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez was a non-negotiable, if the Twins wanted to enter 2026 in the pretender or contender conversation. Unsurprisingly, ZiPS loves Minnesota’s starting one-two punch. It doesn’t hate the arms behind their aces, either.

Zebby Matthews is projected as the MN Twins’ third-best starter in 2026 — touting a future 3.93 ERA. Also of note, ZiPS has David Festa falling out of the rotation, which would facilitate a move to the bullpen, which desperately needs help.

Keeping Ryan and López, if that’s what the Twins actually plan to do, is a pretty big deal. With those two at the top, Minnesota would have a legitimate playoff-caliber rotation. Bailey Ober’s history is better than his 2025 performance, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to see him as a fine mid-rotation starter, and ZiPS has always been stanning for Zebby Matthews. Simeon Woods Richardson, Taj Bradley, and Mick Abel all get highly useful projections from ZiPS, and the computer really likes the organization’s minor league depth.

Dan Szymborski – FanGraphs

While uninspiring, the MN Twins are not so far from relevance. A couple of shrewd additions will push the needle forward. Major League Baseball seasons are a journey, not a race.

The reality is that most every team (sorry Chicago) will win 60 games and lose 60 games. It’s what happens with the other 60 that determines your fate. Can the Minnesota Twins surprise the league an fair better in those 42 “up-in-the-air” games?

If it makes you feel better, ZiPS thinks they have a chance…