Tommy John surgery upcoming for Tyler Mahle. #MNTwins

— DanHayesMLB (@DanHayesMLB) May 11, 2023

Mahle — who was acquired at last season’s deadline from the Reds for minor league infielders Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand — has struggled with injuries for much of the past two seasons, which plays into a trend of transactions from a Twins’ front office that has a knack for harvested players with serious injury issues through mid-season trades.

What’s next for Twins and Tyler Mahle?

Tyler Mahle is supposed to be a free agent after this season. We’ll see what this surgery means for that. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Twins offer a discounted short-term contract that will allow him to rehab under their umbrella and also offer him a soft landing spot to get back on his feet.

Despite his arm issues, Mahle was off to a good start this summer, tossing 25.2 innings with a 3.16 ERA, 1.052 WHIP and 9.8 K/9. Talent has never been a question for the 28-year-old right-hander. If healthy and throwing strikes, Tyler Mahle will be effective. It wouldn’t surprise me if he ends up better after Tommy John surgery, than he was before it.

The Twins will try to win their 3-game series vs the San Diego Padres on Thursday afternoon. Cordcutters can watch Bally Sports North on Fubo TV, which I use and love. They offer 7-days FREE so you can watch the Twins and find out for yourself.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

Twins shutting down Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle

This isn’t a huge surprise, given that both pitchers had their previous starts cut short due to injuries. For Kenta Maeda, “shutting down” seems to mean something a bit more serious than what Mahle is dealing with.

According to the Twins’ certified athletic trainer, Kenta has a tricep strain and he’ll miss at least one start, possibly more. Mahle, on the other hand, has what the Twins are calling an “elbow impingement”. They’re hopeful he will respond well to anti-inflammatories over the next few days and won’t rule him out for his next appearance quite yet.

Triceps strain for Kenta Maeda. Shut down for 3-7 days til symptoms resolve. #MNTwins

Paparesta: "There's nothing that we've found that has any issues to do w/ his previous Tommy John ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction surgery. So we treat it just like a muscle strain."

— DanHayesMLB (@DanHayesMLB) April 28, 2023

Tyler Mahle did not undergo imaging yesterday and met with Dr. Chris Camp, the team physician. They're calling it an impingement to the back of his elbow.

TBD on if it'll impact his next start. They'll get him on anti-inflammatories and see how it responds over 48-72 hours.

— Do-Hyoung Park (@dohyoungpark) April 28, 2023

Bailey Ober has already been called up to pitch on Saturday, in place of Maeda. Louie Varland’s place in the St. Paul AAA rotation happens to be in line with Mahle’s for the Twins. If he can’t go next week, I’d expect Varland to take his place.

Kirilloff Update

Alex Kirilloff will attempt to play back-to-back 9-inning games on Friday night, for the first time since starting his minor league rehab stint a few weeks ago. Should things go well, his return to the Twins lineup feels imminent.

The Twins trainer said as much on Friday, telling reporters that Kirilloff is pretty much cleared to play medically. That, soon enough, his return will be more about baseball than it will his health. And the baseball side of things is going pretty well. Alex is hitting .391 with 3 home runs and a 1.326 OPS in 6 games with the Saints.

Today is a big milestone for Alex Kirilloff, who will play the full nine innings on consecutive days for the first time in St. Paul.

Paparesta says with this, they've done what they've needed to do from a medical standpoint, and it just becomes a baseball decision soon.

— Do-Hyoung Park (@dohyoungpark) April 28, 2023

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

The last time Kenta Maeda was on the mound, he finished runner-up for the AL Cy Young award. The options continue from there with Tyler Mahle, who might have the best stuff of anyone on the staff.

Pablo Lopez named Twins’ Opening Day starter

But on Friday, Rocco Baldelli named the Twins official Opening Day starter and none of those names came out of his mouth. Instead, he announced the newly acquired former Marlin, Pablo Lopez, as their official #1, when they start their 2023 season on March 30 in Kansas City.

#MNTwins will make Pablo López their Opening Day starting pitcher.

— DanHayesMLB (@DanHayesMLB) March 24, 2023

The Twins traded away fan favorite, Luis Arraez, to land the 26-year-old Lopez, who finished his career in Miami with a 3.94 ERA, 1.186 WHIP, 3.77 FIP and 8.6 SO/9 in 510 IP over 5 seasons.

If you’ve read The Athletic or ESPN in the last 12 hours, you likely agree with this decision. Pablo was the only Minnesota pitcher listed by the former as a possible ace and by the latter as a top-100 player in the MLB. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton were the only other two Twins listed on ESPN’s top-100.

According to Dan Hayes (The Athletic), Sonny Gray will start game 2, which lines him up to take the mound at Target Field for the Twins’ home opener on April 6 vs the Houston Astros. Joe Ryan will start game 3. Slotting Lopez in as the #1 also lines him up to pitch Minnesota’s second series finale of the season, vs his former team, the Miami Marlins.

Jose Miranda moving back to 3rd base

Another announcement of note from Friday came with good news surrounding the injury status of Jose Miranda, who has spent all of his playing time so far this spring as a DH or 1st baseman, due to a shoulder injury that has limited his throwing early on. Miranda will play at 3rd base, for the first time, on Saturday. In all likelihood, that’s the position he will take on Opening Day, as well.

Jose Miranda said he'll play third base on Saturday for the #MNTwins. He's the club's first baseman today.

— DanHayesMLB (@DanHayesMLB) March 24, 2023

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

But there’s good news. They have injured list reinforcements on the way and most should make immediate impacts upon return. The list starts with Byron Buxton, who Rocco Baldelli said will not travel to Chicago for the upcoming road trip vs the White Sox, but who could fly there mid-series to join the team, if he’s feeling up to it. Buck is eligible to come off the IL on Friday.

Byron Buxton isn’t expected to travel on the upcoming road trip so he can continue to rehab at home. But were he to improve enough, #MNTwins would fly him to join the team.

— DanHayesMLB (@DanHayesMLB) August 29, 2022

Pitching Reinforcements a Plenty

Next on the list of priority returnees is newly acquired starting pitcher, Tyler Mahle, who was shut down after his last start for shoulder fatigue. His fastball velocity had dropped under 90 MPH so the Twins put him on the IL, got his shoulder checked out and gave Tyler some much-needed rest. Now, he’s feeling fresh and ready to go. The hope is that Mahle will pitch vs the White Sox over the weekend.

Tyler Mahle (shoulder) threw a second, 30-pitch bullpen session today and said it went well. Velocity was back up, no pain, threw all pitches.

Assuming he feels fine tomorrow, Mahle could be in line to return from the injured list this weekend vs. the White Sox.

— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) August 29, 2022

But Tyler Mahle isn’t the only Minnesota Twins pitcher who is ready to pitch-in on a playoff run. Josh Winder is starting a rehab stint in St. Paul and, should things go well, he’ll be up with the big club sooner, rather than later.

Randy Dobnak, too, is on his way back. He has already thrown four times out of minor league bullpens. Though his first appearance in St. Paul did not go well, surrendering 4 hits and 3 runs, in just two innings. Bailey Ober, too, has been throwing live bullpen sessions and will start a rehab stint in Fort Myers on Thursday.

Trevor Larnach Also on His Way

But there’s one more bat, who could really help the Minnesota Twins in September, should he be healthy and get into his groove at the right time. Trevor Larnach, who has been out with a core muscle injury since June, is starting a rehab stint that is expected to last one to two weeks. He could be a huge addition to an injury riddled outfield.

Trevor Larnach is tracking towards beginning a rehab assignment with Fort Myers as the DH on Thursday. It sounds like he'll probably be the next to return to health after Josh Winder.

— Do-Hyoung Park (@dohyoungpark) August 29, 2022

Maeda Giving Up on 2022 Return

There was some bad news that came along with all of these injury updates. Kenta Maeda, who the Twins hoped could be a late edition to the bullpen after undergoing Tommy John surgery a year ago, will not be ready in time to help this season. His rehab continues and is reportedly going well, but they’re officially giving up hope on his chances to play in 2022.

#MNTwins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey indicated that Kenta Maeda (elbow) is unlikely to return before the end of the season.

Maeda continues to progress well in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, but the Twins aren't going to push him with time running short.

— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) August 30, 2022

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

He’s starting pitcher, Tyler Mahle, of the Cincinnati Reds. According to Dan Hayes (The Athletic) that’s who the Twins like better, out of the two upper-echelon starters being shopped by the Reds. The other being Luis Castillo, who’s widely accepted as the best (and most expensive) starting pitcher currently on the MLB trade block.

The Twins asked about Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle this winter only to be denied by Cincinnati. There was an attempt to trade for Frankie Montas, too, but Oakland wouldn’t engage. – Dan Hayes (The Athletic)

Twins’ Playoff Push Depends on Deadline

The Minnesota Twins should be desperate to fix their pitching staff. Starters and relievers, alike, have been unable to keep runs off the board for weeks. Now, losses are starting to pile up. Across baseball, even among MLB executive circles, doubts are being cast on the 2022 Twins.

Tyler Mahle, if you’ve already accepted that Luis Castillo and Frankie Montas are going to cost more in prospects than what the Twins are willing to pay, is one of the next best options currently available.

How Good is Tyler Mahle?

Mahle is a step down from Castillo. But he’s on an expiring contract, so he’ll cost a lot less to pry from the Reds. His willingness to throw high fastballs reminds me of Joe Ryan. So it’s unsurprising that the Twins are fond of him. I’m sure they’re itching to pair that with a better breaking pitch that he feels comfortable using more often. Much like what we’ve see with Ryan.

Tyler Mahle, Elevated Fastballs. ???? pic.twitter.com/YPZwvDsZCl

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 9, 2022

His advanced numbers look favorable (1.1 Win Probability Added), or unlucky, if you’re talking his .288 BAbip. Cincinnati’s notoriously hitter-friendly ballpark makes Mahle’s (2022) 4.48 ERA feel inflated. Sitting in the Reds’ losing environment can’t help either.

Mahle wouldn’t have been my first choice. Still, I’d expect him to easily slot into a top-3 rotation spot for the Twins. The baseball nerds love him. He’d certainly be my betting favorite to take the mound in game one of a 2022 AL Wildcard series. And the steam behind a Tyler Mahle to Twins trade is building.

More Mahle + Twins Steam

Just this afternoon, SKOR North released a new episode of Mackey and Judd, featuring Darren Wolfson, who provided more inside steam linking Mahle to the Twins. He also mentioned Pablo Lopez (Marlins), who would rank as an even higher-valued target than Mahle. The cost for Lopez, however, would mean losing a talented bat like Alex Kirilloff.

“Of all the Starting Pitchers the Twins have checked in on, Tyler Mahle of the Cincinnati Reds would be my betting favorite.” – Darren Wolfson (Mackey & Judd: SKOR North)

Carlos Correa has expressed to media that he is in the ear of front office decisionmakers. That tells me, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are probably feeling more pressure from the inside, to produce major pitching help at the deadline, than they are from the outside. On top of all that, the fanbase gets louder as each game goes by and the pitching struggles continue.

There’s a light at the end of the tunnel, though. We’re closing in on 100 hours until the Minnesota Twins roster will be set for whatever playoff run they’re hoping to make. But if the front office, again, fails to add one front-end starting pitcher and two high-leverage relievers, then any attempts at a postseason run will likely fail too.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan