Early in the week, news broke that Lawrence was very unlikely to go, in week 10. That sentiment held for the next few days, until the very end of the week, when rumors started to spread that the 2021 No. 1 overall pick might be able to suit up Sunday afternoon.

Related: Hulu Live TV Price, Plans and Bundles: Is It the Right Choice for Minnesota Sports Fans?

Trevor Lawrence officially ruled out vs Minnesota Vikings

But now, as we all wake up on game day morning, the final decision has been made on Trevor Lawrence vs the Vikings. He’s a no-go. Instead, defensive coordinator Brian Flores will be tasked with slowing 2021 No. 15 overall pick, Mac Jones.

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence, listed as questionable for Sunday due to a left shoulder injury, will not play vs. the Vikings, per source. The question is whether Lawrence will make it back for next Sunday vs. the Lions or whether the team will give him one more week off with… pic.twitter.com/6dqxcXnhVw

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 10, 2024

What does this mean for the Minnesota Vikings defense? Well, they were -4 point favorites earlier this week. That has now surged to -7. So, for what it’s worth, Vegas thinks Lawrence is worth three more points than Jones.

Related: Jets Superstar CB Cannot Believe How Much Kevin O’Connell Got in His Head vs Vikings

On the season, Trevor Lawrence ranks 17th in the NFL, with 222.7 yards per game (11 TD, 6 INT). For context, Sam Darnold ranks 13th, with 237.5 pass yards per game (17 TD, 7 INT). Last season, as a starter for the New England Patriots, Mac Jones averaged 192.7 yards per game (10 TD, 12 INT).

Earlier this week, his head coach, Doug Pederson, admitted his starting quarterback was “trending” toward not playing on Sunday. But the injury is to his non-throwing shoulder, which could open the door for Lawrence to be in the starting lineup instead of former first-round bust Mac Jones.

Related: Would the Minnesota Vikings be Better with Kirk Cousins at Quarterback?

NFL source ‘wouldn’t count’ Trevor Lawrence out versus Vikings

Even though Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars have had their fair share of struggles this season after a 2-7 start, he gives them their best chance to win, injured or not. But the Jags have to be careful while trying to make an already injured shoulder even worse.

Having just two wins entering Week 10 has to be frustrating enough, but missing a game due to an injury? It comes at a terrible time for a team on a two-game losing streak, but one source suggests we shouldn’t rule out the one-time Pro Bowl QB just yet.

Lawrence became the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. To no surprise, he became an immediate starter. What wasn’t known at the time was just how tough and resilient Lawrence was.

Now, four seasons into his NFL career, Lawrence has only ever missed one start with the Jaguars. It came in Week 17 of the 2023 season when he suffered an AC joint sprain, which was also to his left shoulder. So when an unknown source suggests we shouldn’t rule Lawrence out just yet, it holds more gravity considering he’s started 59 games in four seasons.

But then again, only Lawrence and the Jaguars’ staff knows just how serious his current injury is, and how much pain he’s dealing with. If there’s a greater chance of making his injury worse, don’t expect a non-competitive team to put their franchise cornerstone in harm’s way. But we might have to wait until the reveal of Sunday’s inactive list to know whether the Vikings will face Lawrence or Mac Jones.

Doug Pederson confirms: Trevor Lawrence unlikely to play vs Minnesota Vikings

If Lawrence can’t go, it will be fellow 2021 1st round pick who will take his place, former Pats QB Mac Jones. On Friday, Jags head coach Doug Peterson confirmed that Trevor Lawrence is unlikely to play vs the Vikings on Sunday, in Jacksonville.

Doug Pederson on Trevor Lawrence "It is trending in a way that is leaning toward not playing."

— Jamal St. Cyr (@JStCyrTV) November 8, 2024

How much will this hurt the Jaguars offense? Well, that’s complicated question. It wasn’t that long ago, Lawrence was considered the biggest no-miss QB prospect since Andrew Luck. Then, in his 2nd season (2022) under Urban Meyer, Trevor made a Pro Bowl, throwing for 4,113 yards (66.3 Comp %) and 25 touchdowns, to just 8 interceptions.

Lawrence regressing under Pederson?

Since Pederson took the job in 2023, Lawrence’s numbers have fallen. The yardage is still there. He threw for 4,000 yards in 2023 and he’s on pace for exactly 4,000 yards again in 2024. But last year, his touchdowns fell to 21 and his interceptions jumped to 14.

This season, the former Clemson superstar has thrown 11 touchdowns (on pace for 22) and 6 interceptions (on pace for 12). In other words, he does not appear to be progressing anymore, and now there are rumors surrounding how bought in Trevor Lawrence is to Doug Pederson’s future in Jacksonville.

Related: New Vikings Practice Report: Linebackers Still Limited, Murphy Gets a Rest Day (Vets Do Not)

As of now, Lawrence’s 2022 season under Urban Meyer, who was run out of Jacksonville for not caring enough about football, is the best season of the 25-year-old QB’s career. The guy brought in to make him great has clearly failed. So… what does that mean for Sunday vs the Minnesota Vikings?

Doug Pederson and Press Taylor were brought in to make Trevor Lawrence into a franchise quarterback and to get this offense to where we all believe they need to go… And they have completely failed in that task so far here in 2024… No other way to say it

— Hacker (@RyanGreen1010XL) November 3, 2024

Vikings vs Jacksonville Jaguars led by Mac Jones

It means Brian Flores & Co are preparing to face Jags backup Mac Jones, who was taken 14 picks after Lawrence in the 2021 NFL Draft. He last started a game in week 12 of the 2023 season, when he went 12-of-21 for 89 yards, 0 Touchdowns and 2 interceptions for the New England Patriots vs the New York Giants. In his last three NFL starts, Jones has thrown 4 interceptions and just 1 touchdown.

Related: Would the Minnesota Vikings be Better with Kirk Cousins at Quarterback?

In his career, Mac Jones has thrown for 8,946 yards, 46 touchdowns and 36 interceptions. He’s seen the field during two games in 2024. In those appearances, he is 6-of-9 (66.7%) for 28 yards, 0 TD and 0 INT. On Sunday vs the Vikings, Doug Pederson will lean on Jones to prove the Jags have a Trevor Lawrence problem, not a coaching problem. Unfortunately for Doug… he’s probably wrong.

Minnesota Vikings to face another backup against Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence appeared on the Jacksonville Jaguars injury report with a left-shoulder issue on Wednesday. That’s what initially brought his availability against the Vikings into question. Now, reports suggest that even surgery could be on the table, and he almost certainly won’t be under center this Sunday.

No surgery scheduled, Jay. There are several options immediate and down the road. That's one of them. He's considered day-to-day with a left shoulder.

But as he considers these options, Trevor Lawrence will likely not play Sunday. Mac Jones is the backup. https://t.co/xHnfzRUA1q

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 7, 2024

Trevor Lawrence has yet to reach that superstar level, he was supposed to reach, when drafted No. 1 overall in 2021. This season, the Jaguars QB1 has a rather disappointing 61.3% completion percentage. He’s thrown 11 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.

Related: 4 Bold Predictions for Minnesota Vikings’ Week 10 Matchup vs Jaguars

Still though, Pederson would prefer Lawrence over Mac Jones, who is expected to replace him. Jones, who was also drafted in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft (by the Patriots), has already played in two games this season for the Jags. Jacksonville also signed C.J. Beathard, a long-time Jags backup, from the Miami Dolphins practice squad.

#Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence is expected to be limited at practice today.

Here he is throwing in the white helmet team will wear this Sunday against the Vikings. pic.twitter.com/uZDGRVE7S9

— Demetrius Harvey (@Demetrius82) November 6, 2024

Related: Minnesota Vikings Injury Report: Blake Cashman Returns to Practice

Mac Jones started against the Minnesota Vikings back in 2022, while with New England. The Vikings bested Bill Belichick’s squad that night, but Jones went 28-of-39 for 382 yards and a pair of touchdowns. To be fair, that came against Ed Donatell’s defense, not Brian Flores’.

Related: Minnesota Vikings Sign John Parker Romo Among Bevy of Roster Moves

Minnesota must use the Lawrence news to their advantage. Brian Flores can wreak havoc on Jones and have the defense swarming him all game. It’s also an opportunity for Cam Robinson to get a quick win against his former team.

The current Minnesota Vikings’ season is a mess. Just when you think the offense is going to go off and put up 30 to 40 points, the young defense falters late. When their young defense shows promise, the offense takes a step back (or Dalvin Cook gets hurt)… etc. This is a team that just can’t seem get all of its wheels turning simultaneously.

Now, the Vikings find themselves at 1-4 with their 2020 season on the verge of collapse. Sure, they might be the best one-win team in football and unlikely to finish 2020 with a record putrid enough to command a top-five pick, but let’s assume a worst-case scenario (why not?) for this exercise.

Like… how about a scenario where Minnesota loses the rest of their games this season and finishes 1-15? In that winter wonderland, the Vikings would likely receive the 2021 #1 overall pick in April’s draft (along with a plethora of negative fallout we won’t talk about in this blog).

Quarterbacks matter more.

Football is a team game and any team bad enough to hold the #1 pick would have a lot of holes to fill. But come draft time, there’s only one position on everyone’s mind.

Where is Trevor Lawrence getting drafted? pic.twitter.com/7ch4OqjVnn

— ???? ?? (@DalvinEra) September 30, 2020

Before the hate mail starts arriving from the Kirk Cousins’ allegiance, let me note that I’m not a Kirk hater. I just enjoy dabbling in “what could be” when the current Vikings season is up in flames. If the Vikings were to fall off a cliff so tall that they finish with the worst record in the NFL, I can promise you they aren’t passing on 2021’s QB talent.

Pick of the Litter

As you may know, there are only two quarterbacks worthy of being selected first overall. Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence and Ohio State’s Justin Fields. Forget NDSU’s Trey Lance. Nobody in the NFL is drafting a JV QB with the top pick. That mistake has already been made. Forget Kyle Trask from Florida. I like Trask, but he won’t showcase enough in 2020 to make the jump to number one.

So, who should the Vikings select between Lawrence and Fields? The answer: Justin Fields.

Need Richard Sherman out there to shut down one side of the field. Next five game stretch will be telling, if it’s a 1-4 or 0-5, i wouldn’t mind tanking.

Seeing a lot of tank for Trevor Lawrence. I’m a Justin Fields guy. pic.twitter.com/BqMvQJADkB

— Christian (@ChristianR_Vill) October 12, 2020

Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields came out of the same 2018 Georgia recruiting class as the first and second ranked quarterbacks, respectively. Because of that, the two will almost always be intertwined with one another.

Lawrence Got His Shot When Fields Didn’t

Lawrence started sooner than Fields and it wasn’t because he was more ready or more talented. Instead, it highlights how much better of a coach and talent developer Clemson’s Dabo Swinney is than Georgia’s Kirby Smart.

Entering the 2018 season, both Clemson and Georgia were faced with a decision at QB. Hand the starting job off to a struggling and often mediocre guy with experience or start fresh with your inexperienced, but extremely talented Georgia freshman. Dabo saw the signs early and moved for Lawrence over Kelly Bryant. They won the National Championship.

Kirby on the other hand, wasn’t as in-tune with his team. He gave the job to Jake Fromm and Fields hopped in the transfer portal. The Bulldogs went a mediocre (by their standards) 11-3 that season and lost in the Sugar Bowl.

Remember this from Georgia fans.

“Justin Fields couldn’t read a defense”

“Jake Fromm hands down is better than Justin Fields”

“Kirby made the right decision picking Fromm over Fields”

— jbook™ (@jbook37) April 25, 2020

Everywhere You Compare, Fields is Better than Lawrence

As an Ohio State fan (long story) I can’t count the number of times I’ve heard “Fields couldn’t even beat out Fromm at Georgia”. That was not the case. Instead, Fields was subjected to a coach who stood too loyally by his veteran quarterback and Kirby Smart was burned for it. He watched the CFP from his couch last year while Lawrence and Fields were battling it out in a 1st round heavyweight brawl.

Let’s look at 2019, for example. Remember, entering this season Lawrence already had a full year of experience and a National Championship under his belt. Fields hadn’t taken a snap on a college football field. Yet, Justin was better in just about every category.

Lawrence also plays in the ACC, which can’t hold a candle to the Big Ten from a competition standpoint (more on that later).

To nobody’s surprise, Lawrence has gotten off to a hot start for 2020, throwing for 1,140 yards and 10 touchdowns on 72.4% passing with a 183.4 rating and some rushing scores. We live in a, “what have you done for me lately” society so Lawrence is the hot commodity since he is actually playing. That will all change in a couple weekends.

Outside of Clemson, the ACC kinda sucks

Clemson doesn’t play the same level of competition week in and week out, that Ohio State does, but that didn’t matter to Justin Fields. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) — plus some other advanced metrics — shows that Fields played better than Lawrence in 2019, even while he facing more stifling competition throughout the season.

If Lawrence is better than Fields, why are his stats not better, especially while playing worse competition? Sure, we’ve seen Lawrence perform in bigger moments, including two national title games and one championship. And yes, he beat Fields in last season’s CFP semi-final too.

But let’s not forget the extra games Lawrence has played. Fields would have more moments and probably more screen time, had Kirby Smart made the right decision in 2018 and Justin had stayed in the SEC, facing off against the Alabama’s and LSU’s of the world. He could have easily won that aforementioned matchup vs Clemson last season too, had Ohio State’s Chris Olave not broken off his route a step too soon.

Justin Fields threw one interception all year. Tonight he threw two. The last one was in the final minute in the end zone to seal Clemson’s victory. Final 29-23, Clemson is going to the College Football Playoff Final for the third straight year, but will meet a new opponent, LSU. pic.twitter.com/dXg5xqbeez

— Michael Grier (@MichaeIGrier) December 29, 2019

Fields Grades Out Better Too

Needless to say, Lawrence has been given the benefit of the doubt and had more ideal opportunities to showcase his abilities than Fields. This is not a knock against Fields though. Because guess what, Fields still grades better as a NFL prospect than Lawrence. The ace in the hole.

Finally, Fields grades out better than Lawrence as a professional prospect, given the way the NFL is shifting. While Lawrence can run, Fields is bigger, faster and stronger; posting a 4.50 40-yd-dash at 6′ 3″ and 228 lbs.

According to Pro Football Focus, Fields outdoes Lawrence in nearly each category.

2021 1st pick: Justin Fields or Trevor Lawrence? pic.twitter.com/9mJPGPMG7f

— PFF (@PFF) March 26, 2020

Some of these disparities may be caused by differing offensive systems, but the Ravens, Chiefs and others have proven the NFL is adapting to college football and not the other way around. Lawrence and Fields both move well and throw the ball accurately. The numbers show that much. Justin just does it a little better and more efficiently.

I am not saying Lawrence isn’t a great quarterback. Far from it, actually. It’s a “pick your poison” situation. What I am saying, is I’d take Justin Fields if I were calling the shots. I’ll be changing my hashtag usage to #FailForFields because #TankForTrevor is the 2nd best answer at this point.

Jack Kewitsch | Minnesota Sports Fan