Each offseason FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski puts out his yearly ZiPS projections. The system is built off a four-year model with recent seasons weighted most heavily. The goal is to create a picture of what could be.

Carlos Correa must lead Minnesota Twins again in 2025

Most notably, the team projection for the Minnesota Twins has them competing in an otherwise watered-down division. Cleveland has done little to substantiate their position as reigning champs, and neither the Royals nor the Tigers has moved the needle much either.

“This is a solidly built team that is deep enough to have a pretty high floor. That said, the Twins have enough weaknesses that ZiPS puts them in the 85-88 win range right now. The AL Central projects to be one of the closer divisions in baseball, and the Twins likely will still be playing meaningful games in September.”

Dan Szymborski on the Twins (FanGraphs)

The depth for Minnesota is all internally reliant at this point. Last year prospects were promoted to patch holes, and outside veteran help won’t be a big piece of the puzzle this year either. The floor may be high assuming things work out, but that’s a lofty expectation.

Carlos Correa's 10th home run of the year gives the @Twins some late insurance. pic.twitter.com/6OnEvED3ik

— MLB (@MLB) July 3, 2024

Related: Local Insider Pushes Back on Reports that Minnesota Twins’ Sale is Imminent

Carlos Correa (hopefully) isn’t dealing with lingering plantar fasciitis issues this offseason, and after positing a team-leading 4.3 fWAR, ZiPS sees him positively in 2025.

From a projection standpoint, Correa’s numbers are lower than the .310/.388/.517 slash line that he posted last season. Limited to just 367 plate appearances though, the belief that he is healthier is evident. The player comparison of 30-year-old Troy Tulowitzki is representative of All-Star production as well.

If Correa is going to get help offensively, ZiPS see it coming from Byron Buxton. His 3.7 fWAR in 2024 was impressive, and he played in more than 100 games for just the second time in his career.

Byron Buxton is our #3 center fielder heading into 2025, after slugging .524 for the @Twins this year!#Top10RightNow pic.twitter.com/HzfuyShE7n

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) January 8, 2025

Related: Minnesota Twins Earn Draft Praise from MLB Execs

A projection of 377 plate appearances puts him just below the 388 from last season and would mean the Twins are without him for a considerable stretch again.

Ultimately, Minnesota’s lineup is only going to be as good as its secondary players. Matt Wallner, Ryan Jeffers, and Royce Lewis will have to provide production behind the most-expected sources.

Pitching can shine for the Twins

Last year the major discrepancy for the Minnesota Twins was between actual and expected statistics. The top of the rotation fell a bit short, especially Pablo Lopez. The bigger cause for concern was just how bad the secondary arms fared. Szymborski sees some positives peeking through there.

“ZiPS expects a lot more from all four pitchers, especially Matthews, and overall, it projects the rotation to be somewhere between sixth and 10th in baseball in WAR.”

Szymborski on the Twins rotation (FanGraphs)

Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober all have ERA projections at 3.91 or lower. Matthews and David Festa both take strong projected steps forward. Chris Paddack again looks mediocre, but he could be gone or displaced by a rising prospect.

August 25, 2024.@ZebbyMatthews against Cardinals.

5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K#MNTwins lose 3-2.

FACT: Zebby Matthews had a 2.70 ERA against National League opponents in 2024 (10.0 IP and 3 ER vs STL and SD). pic.twitter.com/ke3iL9dJgL

— Twins Gems (@TwinsGems) November 21, 2024

Related: Do the Minnesota Twins Really Have a Top 10 MLB Starting Rotation…?

Then there’s the looming hope that the bullpen can achieve what it was constructed to do a season ago. “Best bullpen in baseball” was thrown around, and that belief is shared by ZiPS in 2025.

“The Twins had the second-best bullpen in the American League last year by WAR (5.9), and the good news for Minnesota fans is that the bullpen should remain terrific in 2025. In fact, though it’s certainly not an official projection yet, ZiPS believes at this moment that the Twins have the best bullpen in baseball.”

Szymborski on the Twins bullpen (FanGraphs)

Jhoan Duran had a tough season with a 3.64 ERA despite a 2.85 FIP. ZiPS projects a dazzling 2.36 ERA with 76 strikeouts in just 61 innings. Griffin Jax is staying in the bullpen, and that tandem being good would create one of the best leverage relief pairs in baseball.

There's a very strong argument for Griffin Jax being the best reliever in baseball🔥 pic.twitter.com/zMISJquWyS

— Pitch Profiler (@pitchprofiler) January 13, 2025

The Twins’ strength should be pitching in 2025, and that might be tough to believe after how they finished in 2024. Offensive additions beyond Mike Ford and Mickey Gasper would be welcomed, and that’s where the offseason should focus through the finish line.

Related: Griffin Jax’s Role with 2025 Minnesota Twins Confirmed

So, while the sportsbooks put the MN Vikings on one of their worst seasons in decades (6.5 wins), optimists are focused on (1) Justin Jefferson’s fresh contract and clean bill of health; (2) reports out of OTAs that Sam Darnold is a changed man under Kevin O’Connell; (3) rumors that Aaron Jones looks better than ever; (4) that defensive coordinator Brian Flores has hand-picked his talent for a defense that will surprise the league… etc.

Longtime NFL writer says the Minnesota Vikings have no chance in 2024

But don’t tell any of that to longtime NFL reporter, Vic Tafur, who wrote a piece today at The Athletic that picked the Minnesota Vikings to hit the under on their 6.5 over/under win total this season, essentially laughing at anyone who is optimistic about their chances in 2024.

Sam Darnold and/or Aaron Jones comeback seasons? Haha. Elite defense lying in wait? Yeah, right. Any chance at a hot start in September? Have you seen the schedule…

I don’t have much faith in either Sam Darnold — still getting chances as believers think the switch is finally going to flip in Year 7 — or college hand-off specialist J.J. McCarthy as a rookie. The Vikings also don’t have a very good defense and have a tough schedule. If they don’t beat the Giants on the road in the opener, there is a good chance they’re 0-6. Unless you see a win over the 49ers, Texans, Packers, Jets or Lions.

It’s also hard to see the Packers regretting dumping Aaron Jones and having the Vikings pick him up. That’s just not how things work out for aging running backs.

Vic Tafur picks the MN Vikings to hit the under on their projected 2024-25 win total (The Athletic)

It’s difficult to argue Tafur’s logic. From the outside looking in, it’s difficult to see a path to success for a team that is lead by Sam Darnold and will rely on Aaron Jones to be a 1,000+ all-purpose yard fixture in their offense. And that’s before we even get into the unknowns on the defensive side of the football.

If this team doesn’t get off to a good start and fails to gain confidence early, the Minnesota Vikings could be in for a difficult season. That’s far from an impossible, or even improbable, scenario.

But don’t lose hope in your MN Vikings just yet

On the other hand, we saw what Kevin O’Connell was able to do with Nick Mullens, Josh Dobbs and Jaren Hall last season. Not even Vic Tafur would argue that Sam Darnold is better than all three of those QBs.

Not only that, but Justin Jefferson missed seven games with an injury in 2023, as well. And without a doubt, Aaron Jones will be an upgrade over Alexander Mattison and Ty Chandler, in both the block, pass and run game. That cannot be argued, even if he is a year older.

Related: Reporters Blown Away by How Good Vikings’ Rookie Kicker Is

If Brian Flores is the defensive genius that we believe he is and Sam Darnold is half the QB he is drafted to be, I strongly reject the idea that Minnesota starts the 2024 season 0-6 or 1-5. Not only do I expect the Vikings to be better than Tafur and bookmakers project, but there’s no guarantee that Niners, Texans, Packers, Jets or Lions will be as good as they are projected right now.

So, to those MN Vikings fans that want to keep the faith, I implore you to shake off the pessimists out there. While it’s plausible this is a reset year for the purple, it’s not that difficult to see a road that leads to a suprising amount of success either.

The 2019 Minnesota Twins season went along like a Cinderella fairy tale. It ended just as abruptly too, without the happy ending. But, that’s for another day.

Right now, we are talking about the regular season. In that regard, the Twins were historic. We all know about the homerun record they set with juiced baseballs but the wins they piled up along side of those bombas were even more impressive.

The Twins won 101 games last season and it was the first time they passed the high watermark of 100 victories since 1965…

With the addition of Josh Donaldson this offseason and a slightly altered and matured bullpen, the Twins look a little bit better on paper coming into 2020 than they did entering 2019, in just about every phase of the game.

Because of that, those who argue the Twins should win more games in 2020 than they did in 2019 can’t be denied… but if you ask this 6-person USA Today Sports Panel, then that’d be the wrong opinion:

Pitchers and catchers report next week. https://t.co/Ss28tyqERh pic.twitter.com/6pmaTNj6qa

— USA TODAY Sports (@usatodaysports) February 4, 2020

There’s a little bit of market bias playing out here on a national scale. I don’t think it’s enough for me to start pulling out Karl-Anthony Towns disrespect cards though…

A regression from 101 wins, even when you make your team better, isn’t impossible. There’s a reason why we hadn’t hit the 100-win mark in over 50 years, before 2019.

I’d put us at 98 or 99 if I made the list, but we’re splitting hairs now and you might be able to point out a few biases on my end… So from a national outlet, I’ll take the Central Division crown and Tampa Bay in Divisional Round.

via GIPHY

Everyone Else

I would ask where all of the Twins competition is, for the Central Division title, but I already know. Chicago worries me a little bit with the additions they’ve made, but Cleveland is falling off my radar.

I said it about the Twins before they moved on Josh Donaldson and I’ve said it about the Indians every time they sell off another main piece to their team…

These players aren’t robots. How is a locker room supposed to band together and hunker down for a 162-game grind, if they are worried about being traded? As long as Cleveland continues to sell off their best players unnecessarily, they won’t contend for the AL Central… at least not competitively.

I’m starting to be convinced that “Major League” was written about the 2019-20 Cleveland Indians front office…

via GIPHY

The White Sox don’t have me too worried yet because buying playoff appearances in the offseason hasn’t really worked for any team in the AL Central.

Nonetheless, I’d rather have a front office that is willing to go for it like the White Sox have, than what message Cleveland is sending to their fanbase and players.

Oh, and the Tigers and Royals are bad so I’m not really going to spend any time on them.

Here is a 2019 Josh Donaldson highlight video to send you off to lunch:

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan