Under Johnson this season (79 games), the Twins pitching staff held a 3.71 ERA, and 1.220 WHIP. The team’s W/L record was 43-36 in those games. Wes left the team after their matchup vs Cleveland on June 30. The Twins have played 15 games since his departure and posted a 7-8 record in that stretch. Their cumulative ERA 5.04, WHIP up to 1.366.

And if we’re being honest, the numbers are better than I expected. Because it sure feels like the Minnesota Twins are giving up 6-12 runs per game lately and that every loss they pile up comes in blowout fashion. If you’ve been watching this pitching staff on a night in, night out basis; it’s clear they’ve lost confidence.

Is that lack of confidence a reflection of Wes Johnson’s absence? We have no idea. A longer sample size as the season goes on will help tell a better story. But even if the pitchers continue to struggle, we may never know the linchpin to the staff’s eventual implosion.

Don’t wait to find out

No matter what the reason, for the Minnesota Twins’ current struggles on the mound, there are plenty of options available for them to help their own cause. This is a franchise that has never made a major trade for a starting pitcher at the trade deadline.

If they want to remain in the AL Central lead, which is now down to just TWO games, and win an eventual playoff series, they have no choice but to upgrade their pitching staff. Good coaching cannot make up for a lack of talent. Not over 162 games.

So if the higher ups at Target Field want to soften the hit of Wes Johnson’s exodus, they need to get high end help in both the starting rotation and in the bullpen.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

Now, the (6-7) Sox have lost 5-straight and the (6-8) Twins sit just .5 games back of the AL Central favorites, entering Saturday’s duel between the two clubs. This, as Rocco & Co. waits patiently for their offense to make the trip from Fort Myers.

Living the Offensive Dream in Fort Myers

During Spring Training, the Minnesota Twins showed off their new 1-2 punch at the top of the lineup. Buxton hit for an insane .469 BA and 1.608 OPS, collecting 5 HR and 13 RBI in just 32 at-bats. Correa was nearly as good, in a much smaller sample size, piling up 3 HR, 5 RBI and 18 total bases in just 20 at-bats. He finished with a .350 BA and 1.250 OPS in the 7 games he participated.

But, it didn’t take long for the injury bug to bite Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa hasn’t lived up to his hype to start the regular season. Throw those two grenades into a batting lineup that has a lot of warts… and you get the worst offensive start in Twins history.

This is the first time in #MNTwins history they've had a batting average below .200 after 12 games.

— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) April 21, 2022

Pitching to the Rescue

What has saved the Minnesota Twins so far this season? What has kept them in the very early AL Central conversation? Pitching. Yes, that same pitching staff I belittled and berated throughout the offseason and well into Spring Training, is the only thing keeping the Twins afloat and competitive.

To prop up an offense as bad as what the Twins have shown so far this season, your pitching can’t be average, or even good. They have to be great. And that’s what the Minnesota staff has been for most of the first 13 games.

Impressive stuff! #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/coNnetBfaR

— Twins Daily (@twinsdaily) April 23, 2022

#MNTwins starting rotation leads the American League in ERA (2.73) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.8-to-1), and ranks fourth in innings per start.

ERA by starter:
0.87 — Dylan Bundy
1.69 — Joe Ryan
2.16 — Chris Archer
2.81 — Bailey Ober
5.00 — Chris Paddack
5.68 — Sonny Gray

— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) April 23, 2022

In fact, the pitching staff has gotten better as the games have played on. Twins pitchers have held their opponents to just THREE runs in the last THREE games. That’s pretty good timing because their own offense has somehow matched the opponents’ lack of production (three runs in three games) during that stretch. The team’s record? TWO wins and just ONE loss, all against division rivals (KC, KC, CHW).

Regression to the Mean

Baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. That’s the oldest cliché in the sports cliché book. And a cliché only stays on the shelf that long if it’s true. The pendulum will swing during a 162-game schedule. It’s called “regression to the mean” and it’s science.

Regression to the mean is a statistical phenomenon stating that data that is extremely higher or lower than the mean will likely be closer to the mean if it is measured a second time.

Study.com

There’s a reason why I, and every other baseball writer in the physical universe, expected the Minnesota Twins bats to carry the pitchers during the 2022 season. It’s what all of the evidence led us to believe.

The Twins offense should be good, if Byron Buxton can stay in the lineup. Right now, they’re terrible, even factoring him out. That balance will eventually shift, if not back to the mean, at least closer to it. Correa, Arraez, Buxton, Polanco, Sanchez… have all proven through their careers that they will hit.

Race to the Mean

The same holds true for the Twins’ pitching staff. There’s a reason why we expected it to be bad and hoped for league average. They just don’t have the horses at the top of the rotation who have proven they can hold up against major league hitters over a 162-game season. Maybe they’ll prove us wrong and finish above average. Even so, they won’t sit at the very top of the MLB for long.

So as Minnesota Twins fans, we’re left to hope. Hope that the offense turns things around before the pitching staff falls back to reality. If that happens, it could be a fun summer. Especially if the pitching remains on the better side of league-average all season. But should the bats continue to struggle throughout the first half, the year’s outlook could quickly turn sour.

In other words, it’s a race back to the mean between Twins pitchers and hitters. Who gets there first will decide the season.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

The Minnesota Twins have the 5th-best bullpen in Major League Baseball this year, according to Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com. This may come as a surprise to some fans, but it shouldn’t. Even though the bullpen imploded against the Yankees in the ALDS last year, the regular season showed what this pitching group is capable of.

As Castrovince mentions, they evolved over the 2019 season. The Twins bullpen went from a question mark at the beginning, to a bona fide strength, by playoff time. They became a highly-utilized and extremely effective group, for manager Rocco Baldelli.

5 — Twins | Closer: Taylor Rogers | Primary setup men: Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Tyler Clippard

“This is a group that evolved over the course of 2019 and, by season’s end, it was a bona fide strength. The left-handed Rogers (2.61 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 30 saves) assumed the closer’s role with a heavy dose of strikeouts (32.4 percent of plate appearances) and ground balls (50.6 percent of balls in play). May and Duffey were flamed-out depth starters who became fire-breathing monsters in the bullpen in the second half (Duffey had a 42 percent strikeout rate and May limited opponents to a .573 OPS).”

Anthony Castrovince, MLB.com

ADAPT AND SURVIVE

This is exactly what the bullpen did in 2019. 2018 was a dreadful year for Twins relievers (min. 15 appearances). Whether it was the collective ERA of 4.67 or ERA+ of 109, they were hardly serviceable.

But 2019 proved to be a different story for the Minnesota Twins. While the 2019 bullpen pitching (again min. 15 appearances) had a comparable WHIP (1.324) and other comparable statistics, they were drastically more effective at stranding those runners. With an ERA+ of 131 and an ERA of 4.195, they were able to hold leads and save more games. It definitely helped that the offense was scoring at a record pace too.

Their ability to improve comes at the hands of more veteran help (Sergio Romo, Blake Parker…although he is with Philadelphia now) and Rocco Baldelli’s hire of Wes Johnson, who utilized more advanced pitching metrics and tools to gauge performances. That’s something the Gardenhire and Molitor tenures did not utilize enough.

WORTHY OF THEIR RANKING?

With all bias aside, yes. The improvement seen from 2018 to 2019 is there. While the postseason left us unimpressed, the playoffs are a whole different animal.

Taylor Rogers moving to the closer role helped dramatically, at the back-end of games. With a 2.61 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 30 saves, Baldelli’s usage of Rogers proved effective. Oftentimes, he’d bring Taylor into the game in the eighth inning, to work a four, five and sometime even six-out save. When you have stuff like this in your pen… you utilize it as much as possible.

What a 3 pitch sequence from Taylor Rogers here:

– 96 mph FB away
– 84 SL even farther away
– 85 mph SL in the dirt. pic.twitter.com/MMuWqqmCJR

— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) October 8, 2019

It was also a second chance for Tyler Duffey and Trevor May. After initially being called up as starters, their progression to the pen paid off in 2019. Duffey did even better than Rogers at striking guys out (42%). May held opponents to a paltry .573 OPS.

Throw in Romo’s filthy slider plus Tyler Clippard’s disgusting changeup, and the Minnesota Twins bullpen could be even better in 2020. Some rust has shown in the recent scrimmages, but that could hold zero relevance once the season starts next week.

It took until June for #MNTwins reliever Trevor May to average 95+ on his fastball.
Before June 1: 22.9 K%, 3.79 ERA
After June 1: 32.8 K%, 2.58 ERA
Trevor May is already sitting 96-97 in Spring Training. pic.twitter.com/fvBuWUQvDD

— Cody Pirkl (@CodyPirkl) March 11, 2020

BRING ON 2020

A lot of their ranking may have to do with the hype surrounding the team as a whole, though. Even with the truncated season, the team is projected to win the AL Central and head back to the postseason, with anywhere from 34-40 wins out of 60 games. If the offense continues to rake and the bullpen holds their own, the ranking is validated.

They aren’t as good, on paper, as those above them on the list (Yankees, Padres, Brewers, and Rays), but the season could prove something different. Thankfully, they won’t have to compete against three of the teams ranked ahead of them (Yankees, Padres, and Rays) until the postseason.

All we can hope for is the same type of outings as last year, a healthy pen, and another playoff berth. After that, it could ultimately be a crapshoot.

Jack Kewitsch | Minnesota Sports Fan

Shoutout to the 'pen tonight!

Dyson@TheDoof13 @SergioRomo54 @trogers34

4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 Ks. #TwinsWin | #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/Xu6e82cmAM

— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) August 28, 2019

Trevor May struck out the side in B7. #MNTwins lead 5-2.

— Dan Hayes (@DanHayesMLB) August 29, 2019

Cody Stashak throws 2 scoreless and the #MNTwins win 8-2 to remain 3 1/2 in front of Cleveland. The Twins are 81-51 and 30 games over .500 for the 1st time since 9/25/10.
Jake Odorizzi improved to 14-6 w/ 8 Ks over 6 IP, 2 ER.

— Dan Hayes (@DanHayesMLB) August 29, 2019

Michael Pineda had another solid START to his outing on Tuesday but was the latest Twins starter to be pulled before the end of the 6th inning, with or without a bunch of runs already on the board. He threw just 89 pitches but 27 of them were in the 5th, his last inning. Jake Odorizzi had his best outing of late on Wednesday, going 6 innings, giving up just 2 runs on 5 hits, 2 BB, and 8 K. He threw 98 pitches.

The media this morning is trying to tout the Twins’ recent success on the mound as the turning of a corner, but I’m definitely not willing to go near there yet. The bullpen is VASTLY improved and the minimum amount they did at the trade deadline, nabbing Romo and Dyson, seems to be all of the push the team needed.

I don’t know if the starting staff has been THAT improved or if the Twins coaching staff is just asking them to do that much LESS…

I’ve been thinking a lot lately, about the best way for the Twins to line up their pitching staff for the playoffs, and one theme remains constant in my search. Our starters (outside of a GOOD Jose Berrios) can usually hold down the fort for 5 decent innings and I’d imagine they’d be even better if they knew 5 innings were all the coaching staff wanted out of them..

Is there a successful formula that has the likes of — Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Sergio Romo, Cody Stashak, Tyler Duffey, Jose Alcala, Brusdar Graterol, and anyone else that proves effective out of the bullpen — taking over almost every playoff game by the 5th or 6th inning?

There could be.

Right now, the Twins are playing a game nearly every day, and when starters don’t take games into the later innings, your bullpen can get taxed quickly. However, in the playoffs, you will only get two games in a row, maximum, before getting a night off AND your rosters are expanded, so you have more options if those options can be successful.

I think this is what the Twins coaching staff is starting to look at, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see more short starts from most of the staff, as we move toward the end of September. Can the bullpen continue to be this good, though? 

That’s the World Series question…

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

So, here we are Twins fans. Just where we all expected to be 1/3 through the season. 39-18 and 10.5 games ahead of the nearest AL Central contender. Ok, so I was the only person picking the Twins to win the division before the season started and even I based it much more off of the competition within our division (or lack-there-of), as opposed to us pissing on baseballs at an MLB record pace…

…but that’s where we are nonetheless. And, happy to be here.

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But, what now? We are in uncharted territory for even the best Twins’ teams of our past. The Twins don’t need any help in the lineup. Once healthy, they’ll be sending bona fide MLB hitters down to AAA because there won’t be any room.

However, pitching needs (maybe) an upgrade?

Our new front office might not have expected to be in this position quite so soon… but now that they are, they look like they know exactly what they’re doing (unlike some front offices of our past).

Here is what Jayson Stark (The Athletic) wrote earlier this weekend about how aggressive the Twins are right now, in an effort to get high-end pitching help:

Two different execs nominated the Twins so vociferously, let’s start with them. Could they sign Craig Kimbrel before they even plow into their midseason trade shopping? “I can guarantee he’s on their shopping list,” one AL exec said. But even if the Twins don’t get that deal done, rival teams expect them to hit the accelerator in the next few weeks to add pitching any way they can. “To say they’ll be active might be an understatement,” another exec said. “No matter where they are in the standings, they’re always in very aggressive midseason mode. Whether they have a chance to win or not, they use that period.”

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The Twins actually being reported as the feistiest and most active OF ALL TEAMS that are in buy-mode… let that sink in.

There are reports coming out of everywhere that they are seriously in on both Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel, now that draft pick compensation will be out of the picture and (hopefully) the price (and years) have gone down…

Alright, for those who are stat hunting or combing through the MLB team pitching rankings, a need to upgrade the Twins pitching staff might be a hard sell. However, if you know the past of the pitchers throughout this team (who are currently putting up career-high numbers), you know better than to buy in on them this high. 

While I believe that Wes Johnson really has made all of our staff better and that it is showing on a nightly basis, entering the playoffs with this unknown commodity of a pitching staff, would be a terrible fucking idea. Great pitching is what wins World Series. Ask Jack Morris. 

And that’s what we have here. A team that can make a World Series run with some high-end help in both the rotation and bullpen.

I know it makes sense for the Twins to really pull the trigger on the type of move we’ve NEVER seen from them before, and I’ve been calling for it all season long… but it’s still hard to believe this is real life…

The Twins… buyers… the BIGGEST buyers on the market…

I’m going to need a place to put this for the foreseeable future… it might become a problem with this front office around…

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Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

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From love boats, to Favre sightings, to blown opportunities, to Moss ups and downs (I’m talking about moons if you didn’t catch that, packer fans)….

One thing is FOR SURE: Minnesota teams LOVE signing supposedly over-the-hill players, with former skill levels that once ranged from above average to star quality.

We can argue about why Minnesota teams are so infatuated with the elderly former star.  That is for another day.

The Twins did it again last week. They signed Bartolo Colon. When this guy was in his prime, I was rolling Heelys through the Little Falls Middle School and my dad was playing small-town ball in Randall, MN, mopping up high-school hitters who couldn’t hit a knuckle ball. Now my Heelys have long-gone away while my middle school frame hasn’t. My Dad is almost 50. And not the Jaromir Jagr “almost 50”.

But Bartolo is still the same size… and still in the MLB… for now.



The Colon signing is shaping up to be one of the signings that we will be laughing at once the experiment ends. You know, the one we talk about next year as the Twins are coming into their 2018 season? Sounds something like this:

“Well their rotation can’t be any worse. Last year they brought up 473 starting pitchers total. They even brought Bartolo Colon in after Atlanta let him go! Remember, he threw 80 mph and had a heart attack on the mound.”

That is where I feel like this is going. Colon threw 1 game in (AAA) Rochester after Atlanta let him go. He couldn’t get through 4 innings. He gave up 4 runs on 4 hits and 3 walks in (AAA)… NOT MLB.

Do they have any other choice?

Good choices? No. Not without a big trade. Nonetheless, choices? Yes… well kind of.

They could leave Felix Jorge up. Or, they could call up Dillon Gee, who will likely be done with the Twins Organization, if he loses his spot to Colon on the 40-man roster. Gee is something like 7-0 with -3 runs allowed in his last 2 games in Rochester.

But are Gee or Jorge better options? I don’t know. We have been pulling “hot” (AAA) pitchers up all year. They haven’t worked out.

So, Colon it is. Bring your radar guns. The cheap ones. They don’t need to reach 90 mph.

Maybe… hopefully… I am wrong. Maybe he will revert back to last year’s form (when he was 63 years old and not 64). The form that got him his $12M deal this year from the Braves? Wait. They didn’t really pay him that did they? Guess so… (Spotrac – Colon) If he can revert to that… or most of it… some of it?, he would join the likes of Shannon Stewart, Warren Moon, Jeff George, Greg Jennings… Brett Favre? Ok… enough of the sarcasm. But he would serve as another over-the-hill veteran that was able to help a Minnesota team.

I worry this move is more destined to be talked about alongside the likes of the Second Randy Moss/Kevin Garnett Experiments, Donovan McNabb, “insert your veteran disappointment choice here”.

The nice thing is that we usually find out VERY QUICKLY how these signings are going to turn out. So, we wait patiently for Tuesday.

In the meantime, I will be buying one of these Rochester Plates – Bartolo Colon Shirts.

Eric Strack
Minnesota Sports Fan
@RealMNSportsFan

Sources: Spotrac.com, MiLB.com, Heelys.com

Photo: StarTribune.com