That also means that it is PECOTA week over at Baseball Prospectus. PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. Similar to Fangraphs’ ZiPS, PECOTA is the gold standard when it comes to season standings.

Minnesota has to like what they see.

PECOTA says MN Twins take the AL Central

ZiPS is where people generally look for individual player projections. PECOTA is the source for team performance. The good news for the Minnesota Twins is that the Baseball Prospectus projection system has them winning the American League Central Division.

Last season the Twins were favorites to win the division before a catastrophic stretch run sent them home. Rocco Baldelli’s team was both hurt, and underwhelming. They are essentially looking to run it back, and health could be the main difference maker again this time around.

Death. Taxes. Royce Lewis home runs. pic.twitter.com/Xw0QEwNsgT

— Ted (@tlschwerz) June 20, 2024

Related: Details Emerge Surrounding Twins + Padres Trade Talks for Dylan Cease

Cleveland won the division with 92 wins. Both Kansas City and Detroit made the postseason with 86 wins. It seems unlikely that three teams from the AL Central will get in again in 2025, but projections obviously like what’s happening in Minnesota.

ZiPS loves the bullpen that Baldelli will rely on, and there is some serious talent in the lineup. How well some of the youth can acclimate and step up will be key. Starting pitching can be better in 2025, and that begins with staff ace Pablo Lopez.

September 10, 2024.@pablojoselopez against Angels.

7.0 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K#MNTwins win 10-5.

FACT: Pablo Lopez will be the Twins opening day starter. He will be their first pitcher to start three consecutive opening days since Brad Radke (7 straight, 1999-05). pic.twitter.com/J0uASLMuMZ

— Twins Gems (@TwinsGems) January 22, 2025

No American League team is projected to finish with 90 or more wins, though both New York and Texas are just fractions away. Both Atlanta and Chicago have 90-win projections among the National League. Los Angeles, after an insane offseason, is given a 103-win projection.

We will soon see just how quickly the Twins can piece together the fringes of their roster. There should be plenty of down-roster spots to compete for this spring. There also remains the likelihood that the roster isn’t completely set in stone.

Football moves to the side after Sunday and it officially becomes baseball season. It’s getting close and the Twins have a season to be excited for., according to PECOTA.

Related: Local Insider Confident Twins No. 1 Prospect Will Debut in 2025

PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) is an algorithm-based system used to project future MLB player and team performance. It’s owned by Baseball Prospectus and has been hot and cold on the Minnesota Twins for the last few years.

The algorithm was close in 2018, when it projected a .500 (81-81) team, when nobody else expected them to be any good, but called for them to get destroyed by Cleveland in 2019, which definitely didn’t happen.

In 2020, PECOTA was back on the Minnesota Twins bandwagon, picking them to win the AL Central by six games. After an offseason full of consternation, PECOTA fell back in line with the Twins again in 2021.

In other words, nobody’s exactly sure how PECOTA works, but it’s the best we’ve got.

AL Central standings projection according to @baseballpro PECOTA:#MNTwins 91-71#Indians 86-76#WhiteSox 83-79#KCRoyals 71-91#Tigers 67-95

— Ted (@tlschwerz) February 9, 2021

2021 Algorithm doesn’t like the White Sox.

The best part of this year’s projections, might be PECOTA’s view of the Chicago White Sox. They’re barely projected to crack .500.

A good White Sox team wouldn’t be the first to prove PECOTA wrong, But until then, I’m going to be here laughing at them. Cleveland continues to trade all of its best players and the southsiders still can’t keep up.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

The trade deadline for the NBA is about to expire and the Timberwolves will likely set their franchise back a couple more seasons by doing absolutely nothing to trade its expiring pieces to position better for the future. I’m so over that team that it’s almost comical at this point.

PECOTA Day

But that’s not even the best part of today. It’s PECOTA day. I love me some PECOTA day.

ITS FUCKING PECOTA DAY PEOPLE! https://t.co/YBoycoODUk

— Minnesota Sports Fan (@realmnsportsfan) February 7, 2019

Why do I love PECOTA day so much? Because it’s a computer-generated season projection… who doesn’t like that? And they can be pretty accurate too. At least they were last season. PECOTA predicted 81 wins and 81 losses for 2018 for the Twins and they finished 78-84. I tried for a bit to go back farther but it was more difficult than it should have been, so that’s all of the history that you get.

Minnesota Twins

The projections for the Twins in 2019 don’t change when it comes to win loss. It calls for the twins to again finish 81-81 and 2nd in the AL Central. I’m ok with that. But I was surprised at the specific numbers PECOTA has both the Twins and the Indians putting up. I was a little shocked at the runaway train Cleveland will apparently become, winning the division by 15 games.

But, that still wasn’t the most shocking statistic given… Apparently, The Tribe will outscore us by 41 runs and they will do it in an unexpected manner. The Indians have one of the best pitching staffs in the MLB and still will if they trade Corey Kluber like many around the league expect them to.  However, pitching isn’t the only place they will get it done. Apparently, our division rivals will also outscore us in an interesting way…

Joe Mauer Baseball

By getting on base…………….. Joe Mauer – style? The Twins are expected to outhit Cleveland in all major hitting categories except for one… ON-BASE PERCENTAGE.

Cleveland gonna Joe Mauer the #mntwins to 41 more runs scored and 15 more W’s in 2019… bold strategy @baseballpro pic.twitter.com/L2KtIdLGiG

— Minnesota Sports Fan (@realmnsportsfan) February 7, 2019

SLUGGING PERCENTAGE: TWINS

BATTING AVERAGE: TWINS

DRC+: TWINS

 DRC+ is the Deserved Runs Created for a batter, scaled to a 100-based index. It tells us how valuable a player’s offensive contribution is by assigning appropriate credit to plate appearance outcomes and applying contextual factors like park effects and opponent quality.

I get it. I’m not smart enough to know how this works. I will have all sorts of baseball nerds @ing me about how silly this is. But, I know I watched Joe Mauer play a lot of baseball and hit for REALLY high on-base percentages….. which led to a whole lot of losses and questioning of his Hall of Fame credentials…

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan