Minnesota Vikings playoff chances

As of now, the Vikings would land the 5th seed, on the NFC side of the NFL playoff bracket. The 5-seed in each conference is reserved for the top Wildcard, after the four division winners on each side (North, South, East, West).

If the playoffs started today, Minnesota would matchup vs the NFC West leading, Arizona Cardinals, in the “Wildcard Round”. There is one bye, for the top team from each conference. As of today, that’s the Detroit Lions, in the NFC.

Where we will stand after 10 weeks of NFL football pic.twitter.com/VfdpREfn7Y

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 11, 2024

So, how likely are the Vikings to make the playoffs? Right now, NFL.com’s Next Gen Stats have them sitting at a solid 91% chance of clinching a playoff spot.

In terms of betting odds, according to DraftKings, the Vikings are sitting -900 to make the playoffs, meaning you’d have to bet $900, just to win $100. Meanwhile, they are +600 to miss the postseason (bet $100, win $600). Basically, they’re nearly a playoff lock… but still have work to do.

Related: 5 Metrics That Shaped Minnesota Vikings Victory Over Jaguars

With the season just over half done, the Minnesota Vikings would have to go 3-5, in their remaining games, to finish 10-7, a record that would put them on the playoff bubble, given how good the NFC is this season.

11 wins would get them in for sure. But let’s be real, 3-5 or 4-5 down the stretch would still feel pretty disappointing, especially being that the back-half of their schedule is much easier than the front-half was.

Minnesota Vikings NFC North odds

With one game still remaining against the division-leading Detroit Lions, the Minnesota Vikings are still very much in the hunt to win the NFC North, just one game behind. And the battle for the NFC North currently looks like the battle for top seed (and a bye) in the Wildcard round.

Currently, DraftKings has the Lions as -425 favorites to win the NFC North, meaning they don’t like the Vikings’ chances (+400) to take control of the North, be regular season’s end. Behind both Minnesota and Detroit, Green Bay is a distant +1200 to win the division. The Bears are waaaaaay back (+25000).

Related: Minnesota Vikings Open as Big Favorites in Week 11

As of Monay morning, the Lions are -185 to take the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Philadelphia Eagles sit right behind them, at +450. The Vikings have the third best odds, at +600. If they can manage to tie the Lions’ recor, by the time they play each other in the season finale, week 18 could decide, not just the NFC North, but the entire outlook of the NFC playoff bracket.

More recently even, a once dead question has risen from the ashes. With Jalen Hurts injured and unlikely to play again this week, could the (12-3) Vikings steal the NFC’s #1 seed from the (13-2) Philadelphia Eagles in the final two weeks of the season?

Battle for NFC Supremacy

For that to happen, the Vikings would have to win both of their next two games and the Eagles would have to lose both of theirs.

The Vikings need to win at Green Bay and at Chicago (and get help from Philadelphia) to seize the NFC's No. 1 playoff seed. Might need to do it to keep the No. 2 seed as well. Finishing 2-0 would be another chapter in their historic season. From Saturday @SportsCenter: pic.twitter.com/rmwvAkepuR

— Kevin Seifert (@SeifertESPN) December 31, 2022

The Eagles have only lost two games all season and now we’re asking them to lose two straight to end the year? On top of that, the Vikings must beat the Packers and Bears on the road; something they have never done late in the season.

Hyperbole? Maybe. But what part of the Vikings’ 2022-23 season hasn’t been pulled from some tall tale Hollywood script? For that reason alone, it’s worth taking a deeper dive into what exactly the purple are up against.

Week 17: Saints @ Eagles (12:00 PM)

The Eagles are -5.5 point favorites to beat the Saints in Philly on Sunday (noon kickoff). Jalen Hurts is doubtful to play. He practiced for the first time in two weeks on Thursday and Friday but insiders expect Gardner Minshew to start under center for the 2nd-straight game.

Offense wasn’t the problem last week when the Eagles lost to the Cowboys in a 40-34 shootout but Minshew wasn’t great, finishing 22/40 for 355 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

Philadelphia has a better football team than New Orleans but let’s be real. They become much more beatable without their MVP candidate quarterback. Sportsbooks can run up the spread on this game all they want but Gardner Minshew makes the Eagles just another team.

Week 17: Vikings @ Packers (3:25 PM)

Believe it or not, the (12-3) Minnesota Vikings are +3.5 point underdogs vs the (7-8) Green Bay Packers this weekend. Call it the Aaron Rodgers effect or late season Lambeau Field advantage if you want but if I’m Kevin O’Connell, I call it disrespect.

"This would be more than just a win for Minnesota. It's a statement that we are seizing the torch in the division once and for all. The @Vikings are 12-3 and are underdogs against the 7-8 Packers." @PSchrags pic.twitter.com/b31lZCo6sn

— Good Morning Football (@gmfb) December 30, 2022

Still, as Minnesota sports fans we know better than to think the Vikings are going to walk into Green Bay and hang an easy W on a Packers team that must win to keep their playoff hopes alive.

We should know if the NFC’s #1 seed is still in play by the time this game starts but the San Francisco 49ers are biting at the Vikings’ heels for the #2 seed. That makes Eagles vs Saints irrelevant as to who takes the field for the purple and gold.

Week 18 Outlook

As mentioned earlier, the Vikings will play in Chicago vs the Bears next week. Even given their history at Soldier Field, they’ll be favorites as long as starters play.

Meanwhile, the Eagles will play at home vs the (8-6-1) New York Giants, who are smack dab in the middle of the NFC Wildcard race. Both of Philly’s losses this season were against division rivals (Cowboys, Commanders).

Again, week 18 won’t matter if the Minshew-led Eagles beat the Saints tomorrow. If this game matters, however, I’d expect Hurts to play.

What do prediction models and sportsbooks say?

FiveThirtyEight.com doesn’t like the odds of the Vikings stealing the #1 seed from the Eagles. According to their prediction model, the Vikings have just a 2% chance of winning the NFC, heading into week 17. The Eagles have a 94% chance. Should Philly lose on Sunday and Minnesota win, however, those odds will change drastically.

The sportsbooks (FanDuel.com) see a heist of the NFC’s #1 seed as nearly impossible as well, giving the Vikings +2700 odds to make it happen. That’s $100 to win $2,700. The Eagles, meanwhile, are -1450 to keep the #1 seed. That’s $1,450 to win $100. Even if you don’t believe in miracles, this seems worth betting Vikings. Wow.

Again, everything about the Minnesota Vikings 2022-23 season has been impossible. See you at your favorite betting site. Let’s turn miracles into cash.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

After two straight NFC North victories, the Minnesota Vikings fell asleep Sunday night dreaming of playoff games. Dalvin Cook is running like the best back in the world and Mike Zimmer is more than happy to ride his coattails back into postseason conversations.

Last week, we went over the Vikings’ upcoming schedule. “Winnable” is the word for November. If this team hits a hot streak and they rack up some victories over the next few weeks… how quickly can the purple climb back into the NFC postseason race and who do they have to jump over?

NFC Overview

At 3-5, Minnesota would occupy the NFC’s 10th seed if the 2020 season ended today. That would leave them 3 spots short of a playoff berth. The NFL and NFLPA agreed to one additional wild card team for each conference during the 2020 playoffs (14 teams total). That means #7 is the goal. If you can finish the season as the 7-seed or better, you’re in the dance.

Every team between the Minnesota Vikings and a playoff spot, are entering week 10 on a losing streak. Combined, the 5 teams ahead of the Vikings in the NFC playoff standings have lost 8-straight games.

Before we get too far ahead of ourselves though, let’s dissect these teams a bit deeper.

#9 Seed: San Francisco 49ers

Niner fans aren’t sure if Jimmy Garoppolo is the future of their franchise but since his injury, they’ve lost two straight and definitely regressed. So let’s look past the Kyle Shanahan + Kirk Cousins rumors floating around the bay area again, for just a moment.

The 49ers are in big trouble. Jimmy G is out for at least another month and they just got smoked by a revengeful Green Bay team today. Next week won’t get any easier. They’ll head to the Superdome to do battle with the New Orleans Saints.

Drew Brees and Co just finished hanging a 38-3 W on Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football in week 9.

#8: Chicago Bears

The Bears suck. There, I said it.

They’ve lost three straight games and the offensive struggle is real. Chicago hasn’t had a 100-yard game on the ground since week 3. In those 5 games, the Bears are averaging 2.9 yards per carry on 95 attempts, totaling a whopping 271 yards.

Passing isn’t much better. The Trubisky/Foles combo is averaging 222 yards per game, totalling 5 TD’s and 6 INT’s for a 75.8 QB Rating. They’ve topped 20 points one time during this 5-game stretch of no offense (23 points vs Saints in wk 8).

The Vikings will have their chance to stomp Chicago down the NFC playoff ladder on Monday night. They’ll play the Bears at Soldier Field and exercising road demons will be the goal.

#7: Los Angeles Rams

The Rams currently hold the last playoff spot in the NFC and they’re coming off of their bye week. Leading into that bye, they lost to the Dolphins 28-17. Unlike Sean McVay teams of the last few years, this LA Rams team has struggled to produce points consistently.

They mustered 24 vs the Bears two weeks ago but sandwiched that game with 17 vs the Dophins and 16 vs the 49ers.

The schedule won’t do them any favors. The Rams come out of the bye next weekend vs the Seahawks. That game will follow with the Bucs, 49ers and Cardinals. All four of those teams are currently in the playoffs, if the season ended today.

#6: Arizona Cardinals

I’m not going to spend as much time on these last couple teams because the Vikings would already be in the playoffs, should they climb this far up the standings.

The Cardinals are part of the unpredictable NFC West, a division that holds three playoff teams right now and one more (SF) in the race. Outside of Russell Wilson though, the QB talent is young and unproven. How much can these West Division rivals beat each other up, going forward? That’s the question that intrigues me.

#5: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Everything was looking great for Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay ex-Gophers, until the Saints dropped into town on Sunday night and destroyed them on national TV.

Who knows what Tampa Bay is, at this point. Never doubt Tom Brady come playoff time, though.

Why Not Us… Why Not Now?

All of the pieces are in place for a surprise Minnesota Vikings playoff run… but they still have to go out and do it on the field. As has been proven to us throughout sports history, games are decided on the field.

If the Vikings don’t come out and take care of their own business, then it doesn’t matter how the teams ahead of them are doing.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan