You can only ‘cry wolf’ so many times, before promises ring hollow on a fanbase growing more apathetic every summer. My MN sports fan 6th sense is tingling. It’s starting to feel like the Twins are planning an offseason yard sale on their roster. The focus? Unloading the best and most expensive players, in order to allow “more flexibility”. If true, standing front and center when potential buyers walk in, is a slightly used Carlos Correa.

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Carlos Correa + New York trade rumors starting to rumble…

Insiders around the MLB feel weird about the Minnesota Twins, too. That’s why, on Saturday, MLB insider Joel Sherman (New York Post) called for either the New York Yankees or New York Mets to swing a blockbuster trade to land Correa in The Big Apple.

Structurally, the Twins don’t work. Their three key positional pieces — Correa, Buxton and Lewis — are injury prone. The trio started together just 26 times last year. Keeping that nucleus intact leaves Minnesota too vulnerable to playing too often without one or more of them.

Financially, the Twins don’t work well. The Twins, with uncertainty about their local TV deal, slashed payroll about $30 million in 2024 to around $125 million and plan to be roughly at that level this year. But they signed Correa at a $33.3 million average for six years with the belief that payrolls would be $150 million-ish or more.

Joel Sherman (New York Post)

So… wow. I’m going to mostly ignore the fact that it only took one phone call from a New York reporter for Twins president of baseball operations, Derek Falvey, to sing like a songbird. In Sherman’s report, more of which is below, we found out that (a) last season’s player payroll cuts were 100% due to uncertainty surrounding the Twins’ television contract with Diamond Sports Group. It was not about “rightsizing” the budget of a failing business model.

Twins PoBO Derek Falvey blindsided by player payroll cuts

Also, Sherman reveals that (b) the Minnesota Twins’ front office was as blindsided by the Pohlad payroll cuts as fans were. When the Twins re-signed Carlos Correa for $33 million per season, Falvey & Co expected to be operating with a future player payroll budget of $150 -$160 million.

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Had the Twins PoBO known Twins ownership was going to cut player spending that drastically, there is no way they would have considered bringing Carlos Correa back. You just don’t pay one player $33 million dollars, when you have 40 other players to fit into a $120-130 million budget.

For months, we have heard Derek Falvey spew lies to local reporters about how thankful he is for the Pohlad family. How Minnesota Twins owners have given his front office everything it needs to build a World Series roster.

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Now, in mid-November, we find out that was all bologna… which brings us back to an overarching question, looking forward to 2025. Do the Twins really have a tight budget problem? Or… do they have a Carlos Correa problem? Because those are two very different things, even if both are caused by cheap owners.

Minnesota Twins invite trade offers for Carlos Correa

Oh, you think I am letting my imagination run wild? That I am getting hysterical and starting conspiracy theories? What if I told you that the author of this NYP article actually talked to — and got direct on-record quotes from — Minnesota Twins PoBO Derek Falvey for his story? Because he did, and the on-record quote sounds more like a sales ad.

“If they came at us, we’re open-minded to anything,” Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said. “Obviously Carlos has a full no-trade clause. We love him. We’re always open-minded when teams hit us on all of our players. We’ve been hit on Carlos before, we’ve been hit on Byron [Buxton] before, we’ve been hit on Royce [Lewis] before. That’s not shocking to anybody, but we hold an extremely high bar to even start that conversation, and I still feel like those guys are critical to our success.”

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Twins president Derek Falvey (as relayed by the New York Post)

We all know that front offices around professional sports are constantly talking to each other about different players. They make it known who they lo like, and who they don’t. Trade ideas are floated, interest is gauged. These things probably happens all the time.

Derek Falvey isn’t supposed to say the quiet part out loud…?

But the first rule about superstar trade talks, is that you never talk publicly about superstar trade talks. And you absolutely do not go on record with a major national media outlet about those conversations. Then, in the next breath, I love how Falvey pretty much tells everyone reading ‘oh, and we are also taking calls on Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis, too’.

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Maybe Derek Falvey should just put Correa, and other highly paid Twins, onto Facebook Marketplace. That would be sure to drum up more interest. ‘Superstar Shortstop (and others) for Sale – Past injury issues but works GREAT when healthy‘

Just think about how insane that above quote is from Falvey. For example, Minnesota Timberwolves president of basketball operations, Tim Connelly has made a few stunning trades in his day. Never has he gone on-record (with a NY media tabloid) and openly welcomed other teams to call on Anthony Edwards.

Look at what happened with Karl-Anthony Towns, before he was shipped him out of town. Even KAT was in complete shock when gangster Tim rolled up and told him he had been traded, (four minutes prior to when the deal was reported on Twitter, by Shams).

Minnesota Vikings General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, who has made some media mistakes in his day, would never be caught talking on the record with reporters about all the trade offers he is kicking around with other NFL GMs, regarding Justin Jefferson. Maybe these calls do take place. If so, however, they are kept under wraps.

Minnesota Twins fans should brace themselves for Correa’s exit

Unless, of course, you are inviting more teams to call with more trade offers. Then, it would make sense to go to one of the biggest tabloid media outlets in the world, trying to spread the trade rumors. That’s what a team who can no longer afford their $33 million superstar would probably do.

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So… if you are a Minnesota Twins fan who enjoys Carlos Correa, I have some bad news for you. He probably won’t be in your favorite team’s uniform by the time Spring Training rolls around. At least, not if Derek Falvey and the Pohlads can help it.

People who have played with Correa will tell you he is obsessed with winning and trying to make the Hall of Fame — both clearer shots with a New York team, especially if the Twins suggest that his contract at their current payroll will lead to at least a soft rebuild — a message to not use his no-trade clause as a preventative measure.

Correa’s remaining contract and dubious durability — let’s call it a probable 120-ish games a year — works far better with a team like those in New York with a $300 million-ish payroll to work around it than a $120 million-ish allotment.

Joel Sherman (New York Post)

Let’s be honest. The Twins’ marriage with Carlos Correa doesn’t make sense anymore. He wants to play in the postseason year-after-year, and make World Series runs. Meanwhile, the Pohlads want to cut off player spending to a number that’s below league average, then brainwash fans into thinking they care about winning. Those two approaches do not align.

But, another failed physical foiled billionaire owner Steven Cohen’s plan to add Correa into the middle of an already stacked lineup. The rest is history. The 28-year-old who may or may not have future ankle issues signed a 6-year, $200 million deal with the Twins that could reach 10-years, $275 million if Mets and Giants doctors are wrong and Correa continues to produce into his late-30’s.

Well-Paid Mets Struggle Out of 2023 Gates

Fast forward about 40 days into the 2023 season and things aren’t going well for Mets faithful in the Big Apple. Cohen’s overpaid squad is off to a slow 18-20 start, good for 4th place in the NL East, 7.5 games back of the 1st place Braves.

A deeper dive shows why the Mets are bad right now. Their offense is nearly as cold as the Twins’. ranking 22nd leaguewide in batting average (.236), 17th in OPS (.708), and 23rd in RBI (151). But unlike the Twins, the Mets’ pitching has been even worse than their anemic offense, ranking 23rd in ERA (4.73), 24th in ERA+ (90), 28th in FIP (4.96) and they’ve allowed the 3rd most home runs (53).

NY Post reporter thankful Mets didn’t land Carlos Correa…

But instead of worrying about the struggles their own local team is facing, New York media is turning their attention to the Land of 10,000 Lakes. Because that is where former near-Met, Carlos Correa, is riding an early season struggle bus of his own.

In a NY Post article on Friday morning titled, “Imagine if the Mets had signed Carlos Correa“, author Mike Puma cannot even fathom how bad things would be for a slow-starting Correa in New York.

The best signing in Mets history could turn out to be one that owner Steve Cohen didn’t complete. By that we mean the deal that fizzled in January that would have brought Carlos Correa to Queens on a mega-contract extending into the next decade.

You think the Mets have problems now? Imagine Correa entrenched at third base with his .191/.272/.374 slash line and getting booed mercilessly at Citi Field. Buck Showalter would be facing questions about whether Correa belonged in the middle of the batting order, if the manager hadn’t dropped him in the lineup already.

Mike Puma – New York Post

Sure, Mike… how could one of the most clutch playoff performers in MLB history — the same dude who faces cheating scandal boo’s at every road stadium he’s played in for over two seasons — possibly handle angry Mets fans or New York media members saying, writing or tweeting mean things about him?

Keep in mind, Mets’ shortstop Francisco Lindor ($32 million per year) is batting .224 with a .751 OPS and he’s survived New York cynicism so far this season. And the position Correa would have played, 3rd base, is currently being platooned by an over-the-hill Eduardo Escobar (20 G, .159 BA, .571 OPS) and 22-year-old rookie, Brett Baty (20 G, .246 BA, .713 OPS).

Brandon Nimmo gets in on the bit

Puma tried desperately to get someone in the Mets’ locker room to say they are better off without Correa. Finally, after badgering Brandon Nimmo with every hypothetical possibility, the Mets’ center fielder finally gave him the quotes he needed to finish this story. Nimmo told Puma that the Mets’ current lineup doesn’t really have room for Correa (haha), before admitted that Carlos’ early season struggles in Minnesota would have been tough to deal with in New York’s media market.

“I think [Correa] would’ve been a great player to have,” Brandon Nimmo told Post Sports+ this week. “But I’ve been really happy with Brett [Baty]’s at-bats, and we’ve almost got like a logjam in the infield right now, where [Ronny] Mauricio is tearing it up down there in Syracuse and we just don’t have anywhere to put [Correa] right now.”

Nimmo pointed out that Correa would be hitting in a different lineup and would have played a different schedule in possibly friendlier weather conditions than in Minnesota had he signed with the Mets, so he isn’t totally convinced the former All-Star’s slow start would have occurred in New York.

But Nimmo acknowledged if Correa did struggle in a similar manner with the Mets, the outside noise would be loud. “That would have been tough, and that’s tough to do in New York,” Nimmo said.

Mike Puma – New York Post

Delusion vs Reality

If you think the New York Mets are better off this season, or in the near future, without Carlos Correa, then you’re either delusional or you don’t know ball. Every baseball player, even the great ones, go through cold spells.

Any betting man with half of a brain would put a lot of money down on a Carlos Correa hot streak hitting in the very near future. Any ball guy who has been paying attention for the last decade expects Correa’s offensive production to improve toward his career mean, as the season goes on. That the 29-year-old will eventually revert back to the late-season MVP-caliber monster who demanded multiple $300+ million contract offers last offseason.

Hopefully, Mike Puma and the rest of Mets nation have taken their reality medication by then.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

All this while knowing their offer (10 years, $285 million), paled in comparison to that of big market teams like the San Francisco Giants. For the Twins, there was no plan B, even if they claimed otherwise. So when Correa eventually agreed to a 13-year, $350 million deal to continue and finish his career in the Bay Area, Falvine had nowhere to turn.

Sure, they told us that a rebuild was out of the question but their roster construction says different. They lack a legitimate ace pitcher and, without Correa in the lineup, an anchor in the middle of the order. Sure, there’s time to improve the team’s outlook for 2023 but it’ll cost prospects they can’t afford to lose.

Life is about 2nd chances…

But then… the $350 million mega-deal between the Giants and Carlos Correa fell through. San Francisco cancelled the introductory press conference and bailed on the deal hours later because of concerns over Correa’s surgically repaired ankle, which was operated on eight years ago and hasn’t been a problem since.

The Giants have postponed today’s press conference to introduce Carlos Correa ????????‍♂️

— Alex Pavlovic (@PavlovicNBCS) December 20, 2022

The Giants were not convinced. The team’s fear, according to people with knowledge of their assessment, concerned the long-term stability of his leg — and the potential for Correa to quickly lose the mobility that won him a Platinum Glove in 2021. Boras scoffed at that notion, citing the 10-year offer made this winter by the Minnesota Twins, for whom Correa played during the 2022 season. If a team familiar with his medical history was willing to offer Correa a decade-long contract, his reasoning went, how bad could the injury really be? — Jeff Passan (ESPN)

So Carlos’ agent, Scott Boras, picked up the phone from his Bay Area hotel room and called Derek Falvey. His client was back on the market and ready to be a Minnesota Twin once again. All that was needed to get the deal done was an increase from their original offer of 10 years, $285 million.

Twins say ‘thanks but no thanks” to Carlos Correa reunion

One more year at the same AAV might have gotten it done. Maybe they’d need to add two years. Either way, it was the perfect opportunity to make up for their underwhelming original offer and make waves that would splash across the MLB and send Twins’ fans into a frenzy about how far their favorite team could go having Carlos Correa cemented into their lineup for the next decade.

Instead, the Minnesota front office hesitated. Falvine refused to up their original offer of $285 million over 10 years and demanded details as to why Correa failed the Giants’ physical. Meanwhile, Steve Cohen and the New York Mets did exactly what the Twins should have. They pounced.

When he called again on Tuesday, Boras informed the Twins they’d need to improve upon their original offer. Team sources said the Twins wouldn’t increase their bid, nor would they hold further discussions until they had a better understanding of the medical concerns that reportedly caused Correa’s deal with the Giants to fall apart. With New York Mets owner Steve Cohen already showing interest, Boras quickly moved on from the Twins. Later that night, Correa agreed to his contract with the Mets. — Dan Hayes (The Athletic)

Same old Twins… again.

Cohen regretted losing out on Correa the first time around and wasn’t going to let it happen again. The Mets upped their offer from 12 years, $288 million to 13 years, $315 million. So now, the guy who could have saved the Twins’ future will play in the Big Apple.

Is it possible that the Mets would have outbid the Twins, even if Falvine had seriously re-engaged with Boras on Tuesday? Of course, Steve Cohen has proven that money and luxury taxes will not stop him from building the best roster in baseball.

But we’ll never know because, once again, the Minnesota Twins didn’t even try. If they were living with regret, after originally losing Correa, they didn’t show it this week. Instead, they showed their fanbase an unwillingness to invest in winning. Something we’ve become far too accustomed to with this franchise.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

Ok, ok… so maybe we’ve known this for years. Hell, “High Quality Pitchers” has been written in permanent marker underneath the “Needs” section of the Twins’ front office whiteboard for at least a decade. And yet, here we are again.

There’s no doubt, this deadline, that Minnesota is a buyer. The Twins lead the AL Central by 4 games and neither the White Sox nor Guardians want to fully buy in. So, it’s the Twins’ division to lose. Buying big would make sense and pulling off a blockbuster would be, rightfully, lauded from all corners.

Perfect encapsulation of the #MNTwins pitching staff as a whole that inning. Spotted a 3 run lead, walk the 9 hitter to load the bases, and then give up a game tying double with 2 strikes. *chef’s kiss*

— Cody Pirkl (@CodyPirkl) July 10, 2022

But there’s a problem. Pitchers in this trade market, according to The Athletic, are expected to be more expensive than those of years past. Why? Because available quality pitchers are few and buyers in need of quality pitchers are plentiful. Especially big market buyers with a lot less to lose than the Twins.

Twins Bidding for Best Arms Available

There are two starting pitchers available at this year’s deadline, who sit at the top of the target list for buying teams. At 29 y/o, Luis Castillo (Reds) is a high-90’s throwing righty with a plus slider and devastating changeup. He started the season hurt but has gotten better and better since the season’s gone on, now repping a 2.92 ERA, 1.099 WHIP and 158 ERA+.

Frankie Montas (A’s) has been on the Minnesota Twins’ radar for years but they and Oakland have never gotten that close to striking a deal. Also 29 y/o, Montas is having a career year, posting a 3.26 ERA, 1.086 WHIP and 113 ERA+, in 96.2 innings (2nd most of career). But that was before Montas left his last start after 1 IP (July 3) due to shoulder inflammation.

His MRI came back negative, but Frankie hasn’t pitched since, and he’s currently listed as “day-to-day”. Paying Oakland a premium for Frankie Montas would probably be the riskiest trade this franchise has ever made.

Large Market Competition

But injury issues or not, both pitchers listed above are in their 20’s (barely) and have one year remaining of team control. Their cost is going to be steep and, outside of Minnesota, the bidders will be the biggest in baseball. The Athletic names Minnesota as a suitor for both Castillo and Montas. But they also list the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Padres, Cardinals and Blue Jays.

The Twins will pursue both Luis Castillo and Montas before the deadline, but to what extent remains to be seen. They have to engage. In the past, the front office discussed the need to add front-end starters when possible. But how far are they willing to go, eh? — With a lack of available starting pitching out there, the prices will likely exceed anything the Twins want to pay. Free agency aside (Carlos Correa and Josh Donaldson), they’ve never “gone for it” under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, and it’s hard to see the Twins paying sky-high prices unless they knew they could lock up the pitcher to a long-term deal they find reasonable. — Dan Hayes (The Athletic)

Buy Now or Forever Live in Regret

Remember, this is the Minnesota Twins’ only season with perennial MVP candidate in his prime, Carlos Correa, on roster. And let’s be realistic, the Twins are unlikely to get another one-year winning window like what has been gifted to them this season by Correa and his agent, Scott Boras.

If Derek Falvey, Thad Levine and the Pohlad family are ever going to fix the back end of the Twins’ bullpen and front end of their starting rotation, this would be the time, right?

Roster is Begging for a Trade

The roster is primed for a trade, too. Rocco Baldelli has too many bats to fit into his lineup. The Twins have so many MLB-ready hitters that they’re having to stash them in St. Paul.

Even Miguel Sano is on his way back after knee surgery. His rehab assignment is soon to be elevated out of Single-A. Falvine will have to add Sano to the roster, or lose him, sometime in the next two weeks.

Meanwhile, the Minnesota Twins’ pitching staff is falling apart and getting exposed on a near-nightly basis. Not only do they need bullpen help, but nobody will take them serious as a World Series contender if they can’t add a playoff ace to their staff before the trade deadline bell rings on August 2.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan