Will the Minnesota Twins make the 2024 MLB Playoffs?

They aren’t safe in that spot, though. The Twins are just 0.5 games ahead of the Boston Red Sox, currently in as the WC3. Behind them, the Royals and Astros both lurk just outside the playoff field.

In other words, the Minnesota Twins seem far from a guarantee to make the MLB playoff field, when you pull up the standings. They appear one losing streak or slow stretch away from falling out. But don’t tell that to the various sportsbooks or the trusted projection models around the internet.

Related: Another Starting Pitcher the Minnesota Twins Must be Calling On

Not only do the Twins have 81.5% chance to make the postseason, according to Fangraph’s projection model, but FanDuel has them at -520 to make the AL playoff field. That means you would have to bet $500 dollars on the Twins to make the playoffs, just to win $100. DraftKings has pulled the Twins’ playoff odds from their board.

Why are projection models and sportsbooks so high on the MN Twins playoff odds?

Why are these projection models so sure about Minnesota’s playoff chances? Well, because nobody believes in the Cleveland Guardians, who have been the biggest surprise in the American League. For example, The Athletic’s model has the Twins passing the Guardians, before the regular season is complete.

But let’s not forget just how good the Twins are. If the infield is healthy (Correa, Lewis, Lee, Miranda), it might be the most explosive lineup in the American League, and without a doubt takes the cake in the Central division. Yes, they need pitching help for the playoffs, but this lineup alone can get them there.

Some stats for folks to wake up to.

The #MNTwins are currently:

✅ 4th in MLB in Home Runs
✅ 3rd in MLB in OPS
✅ 4th in MLB in Batting Average
✅ 1st in MLB in Doubles (by a lot)
✅ 4th in MLB in Runs Scored (455)

Hottest offense in baseball right now. Oh, what fun it is. pic.twitter.com/2z7Zmc1LNy

— Tyler the Twins Guy (@tjhartmanmusic) July 9, 2024

It won’t be easy. The Guardians have sat atop the AL Central since April 14. A handful of games may not seem like a massive mountain to climb. Nonetheless, it’s a peak they haven’t really reached through 96 games.

Minnesota Twins projected to pass Cleveland Guardians in AL Central

It’s only a matter of time, though. At least that’s what The Athletic’s MLB projection model believes. It has the Twins finishing the 2024 season with 89.5 wins, just sneaking in ahead of their division rival (89.1).

For those who remember what the pre-season projections models and betting odds said about the American League Central, this isn’t surprising. If that’s your mindset then the only thing notable in the chart above is how many AL Central teams have a chance at making the 2024 MLB postseason.

Related: Royce Lewis, Brock Stewart Both Believe They’re Ready; Twins Say They’re Not

Back then, the Twins were supposed to easily walk away with the AL Central, even after an offseason of payroll cuts. Instead, it’s been one of the best divisions in baseball. And not only that, but The Athletic’s model has Minnesota receiving a first round playoff bye, which is granted to the top two division winners in each league.

Minnesota Twins projected to receive first round playoff bye?

While the Orioles are projected to finish with a much better record than the Twins, they are in the same division as the Yankees, who the model predicts will have the best record in the AL, once the dust settles on the 2024 regular season. That means Baltimore would drop to the No. 1 wildcard and Minnesota would receive the 2-seed. Cleveland, meanwhile, squeaks in with the final wildcard spot in the league.

The year keeps changing, but my model continues to underrate the Cleveland Guardians. The Guardians have a 4.5-game lead at the break, but the simulations are favoring the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central. Again, subjectively, that number seems a bit off, but I wouldn’t be rushing to the window to bet BetMGM’s price of -175 for the Guardians to win the division. My money would be on the Twins at +200.

Austin Mock – The Athletic

Obviously, this isn’t the first time this projection model has reflected poorly on the Guardians likelihood of winning the AL Central. Is that a product of Mock’s model missing something, or is Cleveland looking at an inevitable 2nd half slide?

We are about to find out…

As far as the American League Division Series went, I believe the Twins ran into a Houston Astros buzz saw that no other team in the MLB, American or National League, will be able to match up against. I have no doubt the Astros will win the World Series again, when the dust settles on the rest of this postseason.

What’s next for the MInnesota Twins?

But none of that matters, in retrospect. Either way, the Twins are packing up their lockers at Target Field today, and going home for the offseason. So that begs to questions what happens next. Were the 2023 Minnesota Twins a flash in the pan or can we expect another playoff run next summer?

Related: Mr. October Carlos Correa Has Arrived and He is Beautiful

Well, given how this roster has been constructed — with Carlos Correa under contract to play shortstop, Royce Lewis 3rd base and Pablo Lopez as a staff ace — we should absolutely expect another playoff run in 2024. Not just 2024, but the Twins should be playoff contenders for the foreseeable future.

2023 Minnesota Twins Contributors Under Contract for 2024

How much of last year’s team will return, exactly? Well, the Minnesota Twins have contract control over every single player with a positive 2023 WAR, outside of Sonny Gray (33 y/o), Michael A. Taylor (32), Donovan Solano (35) and Joey Gallo (29).

What about Sonny Gray?

Now, I cannot go any further in this blog without mentioning Sonny Gray, by far the most important 2024 free agent the Minnesota Twins are currently set to lose. Gray is going to finish as a 2023 Cy Young finalist and he collected the most WAR (5.3) of any player on the roster last season, pitcher or position player. The WAR race wasn’t close, either. Pablo Lopez and Ryan Jeffers tied for 2nd with 3.3 WAR, a full two points less.

Related: Disguised Kirk Cousins Spotted at Twins vs Astros Sitting Amongst Common Fans Yet Again

If the Twins really do decide to make him a $20 million qualifying offer, and nothing more, replacing him will not be easy. In all reality, it’d be closer to impossible. The Pohlads got four mostly sold-out playoff games in 2023. But should they re-invest that money into a 33-year-old Cy Young candidate, if he wants 3 or more years? That’s a decision the front office will have to make. It’s not the only one, though.

Plenty of Offseason Decisions remain

Nearly the entire 2023 roster will return in 2024. The “older” players under contract next season (Kepler, Correa, Polanco, Buxton), are just now reaching 30-years-old. In fact, everyone who is under contract for 2024, outside of Max Kepler and Caleb Thielbar, are also under team control through the 2025.

That doesn’t mean all of these under-contract veterans will be back next year, however. Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco are great examples of this. It was almost a certainty, prior to the All-Star break, that Max Kepler was going to be traded or released by the Minnesota Twins, at some point before his contract is set to expire in 2025.

Not just because he was one of the worst players on the team, at that time, but because the organization was thought to be back-loaded with MLB-ready corner outfielders. But that was before he became the team’s best hitter, during the 2nd half.

And now, the future in the outfield corners has a lot more questions, given Wallner, Kirilloff and Larnach all struggled in the 2nd half and/or in the postseason. If Minnesota wants to contend for a World Series next season, can they afford to let Max Kepler go?

Twins future is bright

The same questions can be asked for Jorge Polanco, though the competition he’s dealing with is quite different. Both Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien are much more ready to be high-end contributors in a World Series caliber lineup than anyone trying to take Kepler’s spot.

Read all of our Minnesota Twins blogs

And we haven’t even gotten into the minor league phenoms who could come up and propel the 2024 or 2025 teams from behind, like 2022 top pick Brooks Lee and 2023 top pick Walker Jenkins, both of whom absolutely tore up the Twins’ minor league organization this summer.

I know it’s a difficult Thursday, for Minnesota Twins fans, but there is plenty of hope to look forward to, whenever you’re ready to move to the next step of your grieving process.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

It’s do-or-die for the Twins, who fell behind 2-1 after a 9-1 whallopping in front of the home Target Field crowd. Joe Ryan has not been very consistent, recently, but the playoffs are a different animal. We’ll find out if Joe has that killer postseason instinct tonight.

After going a combined 0-for-17 in the Twins first 5 postseason games, Alex Kirilloff and Matt Wallner have both been benched. Astros starter, Jose Urquidy, has reverse splits (better vs lefties than righties) so switching those lefties out, in favor of righties, Donovan Solano and Michael A. Taylor, gives Rocco an even better reason to sit both struggling youngsters.

Related: ALDS: How to watch the Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros – Game 4

Related: Visiting Target Field for Twins playoff games: This is what you need to know

Platoon lineups have worked out well for Twins manager, Rocco Baldelli, through four 2023 postseason games. Willi Castro, Kyle Farmer and Donovan Solano all got their first starts of the postseason in game 2, vs lefty Framber Valdez, and Carlos Correa moved up to the clean-up spot.

Correa went 3-for-3, with 3 RBI, and Farmer hit a 2 run homer. Castro and Solano both collected hits of their own and scored runs. See both teams’ individual 2023 playoff statistics below. But some of the younger lefties, like Alex Kirilloff and Matt Wallner are shrinking under the bright lights of the postseason.

Minnesota Twins AL Divisional Series Roster + 2023 Playoff stats:

The Minnesota Twins ALDS roster looks almost identical to what it did in the ALWC, except (SP) Bailey Ober, who started game 1, replacing (RP) Cody Funderburk, who didn’t get an inning in the Wildcard round. Byron Buxton was left off the roster again, as he continues to rehab his bad knee.

Related: Disguised Kirk Cousins Spotted at Twins vs Astros Sitting Amongst Common Fans Yet Again

Houston Astros AL Divisional Series Roster:

Kirk is one section over from me. Seated with the common folk again. Man of the people! #Vikings pic.twitter.com/7jhz5M1F4P

— Nicole (@SuperSonnek26) October 10, 2023

Kirk Cousins is a man of the people

Kirk isn’t the only local sports star or celebrity at the game today. For example, Johan Santana threw out the first pitch and sat in a suite with Joe Mauer in a luxury suite, one of many at the Twins’ home stadium. Same with a few Minnesota Wild players.

Related: Vikings Place Justin Jefferson on Injured Reserve – Out at Least 4 Weeks

But not Kirk Cousins. Just like last week, Kirk put on his Kent Clark disguise and sat down with the common fans, where he’d be able to feel the atmosphere best.

Mike Florio is so mad right now…

When Kirk spent part of last week’s family day at Target Field, it should surprise nobody that there were cynics who questioned his investment in being great. One of those critics was Mike Florio, of Pro Football Talk, who called Cousins out, saying “do you think Patrick Mahomes is spending his Tuesday at a baseball game?

Do you want to be great?

Do you? If so, what are you willing to do to be great? What are you willing to sacrifice to be great? Are you willing to work every single day to be great? Because others who aspire to be great are doing exactly that.

More specifically, are you willing to pass on going to a baseball game five days before facing Patrick Mahomes in a game that will result in your team being either 1-4 or 2-3?

Cousins has every right to take the day off. Do you think Mahomes did? Do you think any of the great ones do?

Mike Florio – Pro Football Talk

This is a Kirk Cousins appreciation post

With the Minnesota Vikings now 1-4, I can only imagine the hair Florio is pulling out of his head tonight. But Kirk isn’t going to let a mad Mike ruin his night out at the ballgame with his wife and boys. And frick it, with the common fan like you and me.

Related: Minnesota Vikings Defense Rankings 2023 – Week 6

This Viking season looks like it is going nowhere fast and that could mean Kirk Cousins is on his way out. Even if that is the case, I have grown a new appreciation for this man, in his time as our QB1, especially in the last few years. Too bad he couldn’t bring any luck to the Twins, who look like they’ll be down 1-2 going into game 4.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

Royce Lewis moving back to 3rd base

And on Tuesday morning, they got even more good news. AL Wildcard MVP, Royce Lewis, who has been stuck at designated hitter for the Twins’ first four postseason games thanks to a bad hamstring, is moving back to 3rd base for game 3 this afternoon.

Related: Minnesota Twins Playoff Lineup vs Houston Astros: ALDS (Gm 3)

Just wrapped midday news hit with Derek Falvey on @KSTP from the field. Royce Lewis back at 3B today, he’s feeling good. Willi Castro starts in CF, they want an extra lefty bat vs. Christian Javier. His left/right splits stick out. #MNTwins #WeBelieveinTC pic.twitter.com/oX7VcpinDL

— Darren Wolfson (@DWolfsonKSTP) October 10, 2023

On Monday, manager Rocco Baldelli hinted at Lewis’ move back to 3rd base when asked about his young superstar’s hamstring entering game 3. Rocco seemed optimistic at the prospect, and didn’t rule out Royce’s glove being in the Twins’ game plan as soon as game 3, though that might be a bit too hopeful.

“Yeah, there’s a chance [Royce Lewis] is gonna play third base this week. I don’t know if it’s gonna be tomorrow, though. We still have have to figure some things out on the medical side and have some conversations. I don’t know. I honestly don’t know.

He does look significantly better than he did seven days ago, you know, about a week ago. That’s great news for us. I mean, enough so, we’re we’re watching him go first to third. We put a safety squeeze on, with him on third base, and you know, there’s different things that he’s capable of right now.

He can help us on the bases, now. Before, you know, at the beginning of this playoff schedule, he probably wasn’t gonna be helping us too much on the bases. He was just gonna kind of, like I said, cruising speed. He’s improving so we’ll take that.”

Related: ALDS: How to watch the Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros – Game 3

Lewis mimicked his manager, in the Twins clubhouse while talking to reporters, telling Darren Wolfson (KSTP) that his hamstring is feeling better and better. He talked about the baserunning he did in game 2 and got a huge smile on his face when he heard that Rocco gave him a possible green light to play defense, at some point in this series.

Some of my conversation with #MNTwins DH/3B Royce Lewis today. For his fantasy team sake tonight (and mine), go Davante Adams! #WeBelieveinTC pic.twitter.com/XmT3Deq2Q2

— Darren Wolfson (@DWolfsonKSTP) October 10, 2023

How much does it make you feel good that Rocco isn’t ruling out you playing third base in this series?

“Yeah, I just explained to [Rocco Baldelli] that I feel a lot better, just running from 1st to 3rd a couple times, testing it out. It’s the playoffs. I’m not turning off my brain, in terms of trying to get us into a good position to score. If I’m hurting, I’m going to try and get there no matter what, either way. But, [my hamstring] felt way better.”

“That’s really cool. That’s nice of him to say. Get’s me excited, but you know, like I’ve told people in the past, whatever Rocco decides, ultimately, I have the most faith in him, so I’ll I’ll trust that decision and I just keep working and putting, you know, my best foot forward so that he can make good decisions.”

Moving Royce Lewis from DH to 3B, in the starting lineup, is a huge deal for the Minnesota Twins defense. With Lewis out, Rocco has played Eddie Julien at 2B and Jorge Polanco at 3B. Julien has been better at 2nd this postseason, than he was in the regular season, but he’s far from their best option there.

Related: Mr. October Carlos Correa Has Arrived and He is Beautiful

Polanco, on the other hand, has noticeably struggled at 3rd base. He’s only been credited with one error but he’s had at least two other balls that were very gettable, find their way through, including this one, which allowed for one of the best defensive plays in Twins postseason history by Carlos Correa.

Carlos Correa recovers it and gets the Twins out of the inning! pic.twitter.com/zLHMqDPxXE

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) October 3, 2023

But what Jorge Polanco lacks at 3rd base, he excels at 2B, going from a defensive liability to a defensive gold glove. And Royce Lewis has looked very above average at the hot corner all 2nd half of the season.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins come out ready to play in game 2

After falling 6-4 in game 1, the Twins sent their ace, Pablo Lopez to the mound for game 2 and the bats came ready to fight for him. Carlos Correa is the hottest hitter in baseball, which shouldn’t surprise anyone, given he’s one of the best playoff hitters in MLB history. He went 3 for 3 tonight, including two doubles, a walk and 3 huge RBI.

Carlos Correa gives Minnesota the lead in Houston! pic.twitter.com/IHA2KQHnjL

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) October 9, 2023

Carlos Correa passes Derek Jeter and David Ortiz to move into a tie for third all-time on the playoff RBIs list with 63! pic.twitter.com/YSpKrRuOoH

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) October 9, 2023

Correa wasn’t the only offensive hero on the night. Kyle Farmer started his first game of the postseason and rewarded Rocco Baldelli & Co with a 2-run homer and Eddie Julien entered the game in the 6th as a pinch hitter and delivered with an RBI single.

When the dust settled on game 2, the Twins turned the table on the ALDS with a 6-2 road victory vs the defending World Series champs. The Twins’ bats, which have been shaky with runners in scoring position so far during the postseason, were ready.

Related: ALDS: How to watch the Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros – Game 2

Pablo Lopez lights out again

But the story of game 3 was Twins starting pitcher, Pablo Lopez, who has now pitched 12.2 innings of 1-run postseason baseball in 2023. They say pitcher wins do not matter anymore in baseball. But in the playoffs, I can promise you, they do.

Because Lopez is 2-0 in the 2023 postseason and, if he can notch another one or two before it’s all over, it’ll be those wins that cement him into Minnesota Twins lore as one of the greatest to ever take the mound. Oh, he’s also just 27 years old and under a fresh new contract that will keep him in Minneapolis through 2027.

Pablo López, Filthy 90mph Changeup. 👌

7th K…and 7 Scoreless Innings. pic.twitter.com/fGcblKtPgW

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 9, 2023

Related: ALDS: How to watch the Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros

Game 3 will be back at the weapon that is Target Field and the Twins will surely have the pitching matchup advantage, as they send Cy Young candidate, Sonny Gray, to the hill. He started game 2 of the AL Wildcard vs the Toronto Blue Jays, tossing 5 scoreless innings in the Twins win.

If Minnesota can pull out a game 3 victory, they’ll have a chance to clinch the series at home in game 4, before ever having to get on a plane and head south back to Houston.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

Related: Minnesota Twins Playoff Lineup vs Houston Astros: ALDS (Gm 2)

Mayor Jacob Frey credits the Minnesota Twins with 1997 World Series win

But it was what lay within the first paragraph of Frey’s incredibly inspiring, and very official government document, where he congratulates the Twins for their first postseason series win in 21 years and wishes them luck in trying to capture the franchise’ 4th World Series title, to go along with their championships from 1987, 1991 and 1997…

In honor of the @Twins and their first ALDS game — I’m exciting to proclaim today “MN Twins Division Series Day” in MPLS. Let’s go Twins! #WeBelieveinTC pic.twitter.com/oRzmbYAViO

— Mayor Jacob Frey (@MayorFrey) October 7, 2023

Proclamation

WHEREAS, the Minnesota Twins have won the World Series three times since the team was first established in 1961 — winning in 1987, 1991 and 1997; and

WHEREAS, between 1997 and 2023, Minnesota Twins fans across the state have remained hopeful for postseason luck; and

WHEREAS, on October 3, 2023, the Minnesota Twins defeated the Toronto Blue Jays in their first postseason win in the best-of-three wildcard series; and

WHEREAS, on October 5, 2023, the Minnesota Twins clinched a spot in the American League Division Series, defeating the Toronto Blue Jays 2-0 at home at Target Field; and

WHEREAS, this is the first time in 21 years that the Minnesota Twins have won a postseason series, a momentous time in history for all Minnesota sports fans;

Official Proclamation – Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey

The mid-late 1990’s will forever live in Minnesota Twins lore, which we will get into momentarily. But one thing they definitely did not do, is get anywhere near winning the franchise’s 3rd World Series. Believe who you want but Baseball-Reference has the Florida Marlins defeating the Cleveland Indians 4-3 in the 1997 World Series.

Dark history of mid-late 1990’s Minnesota Twins

I was baptized in Twins fandom during the 1991 World Series, at 3-years-old. So I can tell you first hand that being a Twins fan in the late 90’s was tough. Your championship high had worn off 3 years ago and, little did we know, it wasn’t going to get better anytime soon.

Following their miracle run in ’91, the baseball gods took full-aim at the Twins, punishing them with a decade-long run of impossibly bad luck and ineptitude that netted a total of ZERO postseason games.

Outside of the 1992 season, in which they finished 2nd (of 7 teams) in the AL West, and the 2001 season, where a young and upcoming squad finished 2nd (of 5 teams) in the AL Central, the 1990’s Minnesota Twins were putrid. Much of it wasn’t their fault, but that doesn’t make the memories any better.

Kirby Puckett’s jaw was broken by a fastball at the end of 1995 and he woke up on one of the last days of Spring Training, in 1996 (March 28), and couldn’t see out of his left eye, abruptly ending his MLB career and dashing lofty expectations for the team that season.

Related: Minnesota Twins Fight Back but Fall Short in Game 1 Loss vs Houston Astros

The mid-90’s Chuck Knoblauch Saga…

From 1993 to 1997, especially after Puckett was forced into retirement, Chuck Knoblauch was probably Minnesota’s best player. He batted .310 with a .842 OPS and his defense was arguably better than his offense. He won a Gold Glove in 1997, to go with his two Silver Sluggers and three All-Star appearances in those 4 years.

But after the 1997 season, Knoblauch requested and was granted a trade to the New York Yankees. Fans were pissed. When Chuck returned to the Metrodome with the Yankees, he was incessantly booed and one game had to be stopped so Tom Kelly could beg fans in left field to stop throwing beer and hot dogs on their once beloved 2nd baseman.

Chuck Knoblauch turns 55 today so let’s review the hot dog incident: Left field fans…dollar dog night…projectiles…Tom Kelly appeals to the masses…PA announcer Bob Casey chastises fans with “Please stop throwing things! This is an important game! Now quit this!"… pic.twitter.com/HqZWOgw9aX

— Jeff (@MNTwinsZealot) July 7, 2023

Knoblauch was playing left field because he quickly forgot how to play baseball, after landing in New York. It started with his defense. Suddenly he could not throw from 2nd base to 1st base. Not kidding. Soon, his hitting betrayed him too.

The once perennial Silver Slugger candidate hit just .235 with a .652 OPS in his final two big league seasons. When he retired in 2002, Knoblauch was just 33 years old. Ironically, 2002 was the first time the Minnesota Twins made the playoffs since their 1991 World Series win.

No World Series in 1997 but the Twins did get better in the 2000’s

Little did we know, as the Twins were popping champagne in 2002 following an ALDS series win over the “Moneyball” Oakland Athletics, that it would be the last time the Twins would advance in the MLB postseason for 21 years, until the 2023 team beat the Toronto Blue Jays last week.

Still, the Ron Gardenhire led 2000’s teams did win the AL Central in 6 of 9 seasons from 2002 to 2010, which was a far cry from the what fans suffered through in the mid to late 90’s, back when the Minneapolis Mayor remembers watching World Series parades…

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

Related: ALDS: Twins Name Bailey Ober as Game 1 Starter vs Astros

Twins strand runners early, Astros take advantage

Jose Altuve hit a leadoff home run in the bottom of the 1st inning, but that wasn’t the story early on. Yes, the Astros got out to an early lead that they added onto twice, including two runs in the 3rd and two more in the 5th.

But it was the Twins going 0-for-5 with RISP vs Houston starter, Justin Verlander, that lead to Houston’s early lead. Minnesota had runners on 1st and 2nd with less than two outs in the top of the 1st and 2nd innings, only to hit into 6-4-3 double plays both times.

Yordan Alvarez made it 3-0 in the 3rd, launching a missile into the right field stands [Hint:That wouldn’t be the last time]. Then, in the 5th, the Astros tacked on 2 more runs the old fashioned way, with back-to-back RBI singles from Jose Abreu and Chas McCormick.

Middle middle? He don't miss. pic.twitter.com/qlkZDAZ730

— Houston Astros (@astros) October 7, 2023

Minnesota Twins muster up some 7th inning magic

Heading into the 7th inning, the Minnesota Twins trailed the Houston Astros 5-0. Things can happen fast in baseball, however, and that’s exactly what we saw in game 1, as soon as Justin Verlander was lifted from the contest (6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K, 93 P).

Related: How to watch Minnesota Twins Playoff Games in 2023

In the 7th, the Twins got their first two runners on (Wallner – HBP, Jeffers – 1B), before both Willi Castro (PH for Michael A. Taylor) and Eddie Julien struck out swinging. But just when you thought the Twins were going to leave 2 more runners in scoring positions, Jorge Polanco did this… before Royce Lewis did that.

We believe these are back-to-back jacks! 🎣🎣🎣🎣#WeBelieveinTC pic.twitter.com/GrghrQ9yoS

— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) October 7, 2023

Yordan Alvarez stops Houston’s bleeding

The Twins failed to add anymore in that 7th inning, however, even after Max Kepler hit a check-swing double, and it would come back to bit them.

Remember that dude I mentioned earlier, Yordan Alvarez, and how he wasn’t done launching homers into the deep bleachers at Minute Maid Park. Yeah, his 2nd one was a solo shot that stopped the bleeding for Houston in the bottom of the 7th.

Lefty to face Yordan? When will they learn. pic.twitter.com/8tENnEC4Gg

— Houston Astros (@astros) October 7, 2023

Twins go away quietly

Unfortunately, the Twins’ 4-run 7th inning magic was all they could muster on Saturday night. Carlos Correa, who went 2/4 on the evening, lead off the 8th inning with a rope down the 3rd base line (he went 2/4 on the night) that he limped out for an easy double, but that would be Minnesota’s final hit of the night. The Astros got 6-straight outs and the game ended in non-dramatic 6-4 fashion.

Houston takes a 1-0 lead in the AL Divisional Series. Game 2 is Sunday at 7:03 PM. Take a look at the starting pitching matchup HERE. If the Twins had won this game, it would have put the Astros on the ropes, given who they have on the mound tomorrow.

Had Minnesota failed to fight back at all, I’d be very concerned with how the rest of this series will go. Instead, I expect them to punch back in a big way in game 2, with plenty of runs for their ace.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

Bailey Ober named Minnesota Twins starter for game 1

Until Friday, it was a mystery as to who would take the mound as Twins starter for game 1. That changed when Bailey Ober sat down in front of reporters this afternoon and officially announced himself as the guy for Saturday. He told reporters that he only found out 20-30 minutes before he talked to them.

Official: Game 1 starter Bailey Ober. pic.twitter.com/z6Zf694LPs

— Do-Hyoung Park (@dohyoungpark) October 6, 2023

Who are the expected starters for ALDS Twins vs Astros?

The expected starters for the ALDS between the Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros are as follows:

Related: Target Field Crowd Noise “a Weapon” that Made Pickoff Play Possible vs Blue Jays

The Houston Astros hit a lot of home runs and they do not strike out very often. On paper, that poses a problem for Joe Ryan, seeing as his 32 home runs allowed in 2023 was the 7th-most of any pitcher in Major League Baseball and he relies heavily on strikeouts, when at his best.

Bailey Ober, who threw just 20 innings less than Ryan this season, actually throws harder and allowed 10 less homers than his curly-haired teammate. Ryan allows more line drives and less fly balls. Plus, it’s Ober who allowed less exit velocity, a smaller hard-hit %, a smaller HR % and fared better in BA, OPS against and BAbip.

Justin Verlander to start for Astros

Houston received a bye in the American League Wildcard round, after an incredible MLB regular season finale saw them move up from the AL’s #6 seed, at the start of the day, to the #2 seed, when it ended. The Astros will start 40-year-old postseason legend, Justin Verlander (2023: 162 IP, 3.22 ERA, 1.133 WHIP).

Why didn’t the Twins choose Pablo Lopez or Joe Ryan?

The easiest option for Minnesota would have been to run Joe Ryan, the officially named starter for a Wildcard game 3 vs Toronto that wasn’t necessary. Pablo Lopez would have barely had 4 days of rest between his first pitch on Tuesday and the scheduled first pitch for Saturday’s game 1. Tossing him would’ve been risky.

But Lopez was so good vs Toronto that the urge to start him in game 1, again, had to have been nearly unbearable. Joe Ryan, on the other hand, has been very average, since throwing a complete game shutout back in June. In reality, he got every opportunity to prove he was the guy, and couldn’t close the deal. Thus, Ober gets the ball this weekend.

Related: How to watch Minnesota Twins Playoff Games in 2023

Yes, Joe had a good run in the Olympics a couple of years ago but those empty arenas can’t hold a candle to what the atmosphere will be like at Minute Maid Park this weekend. Ober going on Friday will slot Pablo Lopez in for Saturday afternoon, before the Twins come back with Sonny Gray in game 3, back at Target Field. If needed, Joe Ryan would go in game 4. Divisional Series rosters are due on Saturday morning by 10 AM CDT.

Read all of our Minnesota Twins playoff coverage

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan