That would never be a one-for-one swap obviously, and the sides have had active discussions about other parts. Spring Training is less than two weeks away now though, and nothing has materialized yet.

Dylan Cease would make perfect sense for the MN Twins

When The Athletic’s Dan Hayes first reported interest in Cease from Minnesota, it was a bombshell. In his latest article, his suggestion that “Cease is precisely what the Twins need,” couldn’t be more true. The Twins aren’t the only team to inquire about the Cy Young-caliber pitcher, but he would solve a significant amount of fan angst.

Hayes astutely outlines a way in which Minnesota could acquire Cease, while protecting their prospects and fulfilling San Diego’s desire for big league talent.

“The Padres’ ask likely begins with either Ryan or Ober. The Twins would instead prefer to insert Zebby Matthews or Simeon Woods Richardson while also having to include left fielder Trevor Larnach, utilityman Willi Castro (whose $6.4 million salary would help offset how much money the Twins absorb with Cease) and others to help compensate for the draft pick compensation the Padres would receive if they kept Cease for the season, made him the qualifying offer, and he then leaves via free agency.”

Dan Hayes on a Dylan Cease trade return (The Athletic)

There is no way Walker Jenkins or Emmanuel Rodriguez will be made available. It’s also tough to envision that Luke Keaschall could be moved given the likelihood of him being a possible answer at first base in the big leagues this year.

If the Padres are willing to pay most of Christian Vazquez’s $10 million salary this season, that could be a way for the Twins to inch closer for a net-even return. Willi Castro’s salary is the only other sizable amount of those mentioned.

Related: Keith Law Ranks Minnesota Twins Farm System Low… But at Least He’s Nice About It?

With Cease on board, the Twins could part with either big league starter Zebby Matthews and/or Simeon Woods Richardson. They still have Triple-A prospect depth in the form of Andrew Morris, Cory Lewis, and Marco Raya.

Dylan Cease NO HITTER!!! 🍾 pic.twitter.com/fsbZXA2Fec

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 25, 2024

Cease brings the high-end talent along with incredible durability. He has started at least 32 games in each of the past four seasons; three times leading the league. He has two top-four Cy Young finishes, familiarity with the division, and has racked up at least 214 strikeouts in each of the past four years.

Despite just a single year left on his deal, Cease also represents an ideal extension candidate. Although Minnesota doesn’t have money now due to their sale, they may soon with new owners. Talk about a way to make a splash.

Could MN pivot to a different deal with San Diego?

It’s understandable that Derek Falvey and Jeremy Zoll may balk at the asking price from A.J. Preller. The Twins don’t really need to add more back-end depth, but it doesn’t have to be Cease or bust.

San Diego has floated Michael King’s name as a potential trade candidate, and he just agreed to an arbitration deal.

Michael King and the Padres have settled to avoid arbitration, per source. King will be guaranteed $7.75 million ($3M signing bonus, $1M salary, $3.75M buyout on a $15M mutual option for 2026). The buyout can become $4M based on number of games started. @sdutKevinAcee was on it.

— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) January 31, 2025

King has one more year of team control than Dylan Cease, and could be in the same $13 million ballpark next season. Right now though, he’s a cheaper payday and his track record can be a bit more scrutinized.

The former Yankees pitcher has a dazzling 2.91 ERA since 2021, but he only became a full-time starter last year. That resulted in a 2.95 ERA across 173 2/3 innings along with 201 strikeouts. He’s a year older than Cease, playing at 30 in 2025, and has thrown 100 innings just twice in his career.

This overlay of Michael King’s two seamer and sweeper 🤯

(h/t @PitchingNinja)pic.twitter.com/ZuB4w1l5kw

— B/R Walk-Off (@BRWalkoff) June 12, 2024

Related: Local Insider Confident Twins No. 1 Prospect Will Debut in 2025

Right now the Minnesota Twins offseason has been an inexcusable mess. It was never estimated that they would be very active on the free agent front due to financial constraints. Having spent less than $10 million since signing Carlos Correa, and not bringing in a single major league free agent, this winter is a joke.

The trade market could fix a lot of problems in a season where the Twins need to compete, and must earn back fan trust. There is now an avenue to watch the games, but people must be incentivized to do so.

The assumption heading into the winter was that Minnesota would move a veteran contract in order to shuffle the roster. Players like Christian Vazquez, Willi Castro, and Chris Paddack have all been named in offseason trade rumor reports. But on Wednesday night, details surrounding ongoing talks with the San Diego Padres came to light.

Twins catcher Christian Vazquez is a San Diego Padres trade target

Minnesota linked up with the San Diego Padres a few years ago, when they acquired Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan, just before opening day. New Minnesota Twins Derek Falvey and his right-hand man Jeremy Zoll have reportedly been in talks with Padres GM A.J. Preller regarding a deal that would send Christian Vazquez to the West Coast.

“The Minnesota Twins and San Diego Padres have spoken about a potential trade that would send veteran catcher Christian Vázquez to San Diego, league sources told The Athletic. No deal was considered imminent Wednesday, but there appeared to be motivation on both sides to continue talking.”

The Athletic

It makes all the sense in the world for Minnesota to move on from Vazquez. Ryan Jeffers is the superior all-around option behind the dish, and Vazquez carries a $10 million salary in 2025.

A year ago, Jeffers experienced multiple ebbs and flows to his season, producing a 103 OPS+ with a .226/.300/.432 slash line. Although Vazquez is better defensively, his 60 OPS+ and .221/.248/.327 rendered him mostly unplayable in 2024.

Christian Vazquez framing a ball that bounced in the dirt, commitment to the craft pic.twitter.com/Ivhl3LeTz1

— CJ Fogler 🫡 (@cjzero) September 26, 2024

San Diego needs a starting catcher and the free agent market is barren. According to a report from Dan Hayes and Dennis Lin (The Athletic), the two-time World Series winner is exactly what the Padres are looking for. What’s holding up the deal? San Diego wants Minnesota to eat more of Vazquez’s 2025 salary.

Related: Four Minnesota Twins Prospects Make Coveted Top 100 List

But the more interesting side of this report may be what the Minnesota Twins are looking to get back, in a deal for Vazquez. Starting pitcher Dylan Cease was dealt to the Padres just last season, but as a pending unrestricted free agent who is set to make just $13.75 million in 2025, San Diego is considering dumping his salary, to cut down on luxury tax costs. The Twins, as they rightfully should be, are very much interested.

A key sticking point in talks between the teams is believed to be how much of Vázquez’s contract San Diego would absorb in a possible exchange. The Padres, who still have multiple needs after missing out on a potential ace in Roki Sasaki, are currently projected to be over the luxury tax threshold.

The Padres would like to keep Cease, but some rival officials believe president of baseball operations A.J. Preller ultimately will have little choice but to move the pending free agent and his $13.75 million salary.

The Athletic

Minnesota eyeing Dylan Cease in return

Rocco Baldelli & Co are innately familiar with the 29-year-old starter, considering he spent five years with their division rival Chicago White Sox. In his first year with the Padres, Cease posted a 3.47 ERA with a 3.10 FIP.

Cease, who would slot immediately into the front half of what would be a stacked Minnesota Twins 2025 starting rotation, threw a career-high 189 1/3 innings while striking out 224 batters. It was his fourth-straight season surpassing the 200-strikeout threshold.

Related: Minnesota Twins Legend Escapes Elimination from 2025 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot

San Diego isn’t a small market team, but they operate in many of the same ways as the Twins. The Padres carried a $170 million payroll last year and would love to drop that number. If Minnesota is willing to eat some of Vazquez’s salary and take on Cease’s number, a common ground could be reached.

“The right-hander would provide a good Twins rotation with an outstanding, if short-term, upgrade. But the sides might not find common ground on a package. The Twins would prefer to provide a value-laden package to replenish the Padres’ depth as opposed to the higher-upside talent Preller likes to hunt.“

The Athletic

Congratulations to Dylan Cease on throwing the 2nd no-hitter in Padres history pic.twitter.com/xmCNcl05HP

— Jose Canseco (@JoseCanseco) July 25, 2024

The Twins rotation isn’t in a bad spot, but Cease would unquestionably pair with Pablo Lopez as a second top-tier option. An ability to push Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober down in depth is huge and could create a more sustainable group for Rocco Baldelli this season.

Fallout for the Minnesota Twins

A move to acquire Cease undoubtedly means adding salary. Right now Minnesota is tapped out on that front and the Pohlad family isn’t bringing in more cash. The Padres are likely not interested in the services of either Paddack or Castro, instead opting for prospect talent.

Chris Paddack's 3Ks in the 2nd.

5Ks thru 2. pic.twitter.com/i8QiIecX3y

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 9, 2024

Should the trade include Vazquez and a minor league, it makes sense that veteran arm Chris Paddack would be on the chopping block. He has drawn trade interest and is set to make $7.5 million in 2025. His 2024 4.99 ERA isn’t good, but another organization could be convinced that he represents a depth piece.

Related: Minnesota Twins Full 2025 Coaching Staff Announced

The Twins have been loading up at the catcher position through trades this offseason. The big league tandem would be Jeffers and Jair Camargo. Diego Cartaya has appeal as a former top prospect though, and Mickey Gasper has utility there as well.

If recent offseason moves have tough us anything, it’s to never consider Falvey and the Twins done with making moves. An acquisition of Cease would be huge, and even more so if they can offload Vazquez in the process.

The moves Twins President Derek Falvey has made this offseason have seemingly led to adding another pitcher to the starting rotation. In particular, the money Minnesota saved by trading Jorge Polanco will likely be used to add another arm in the rotation.

Related: Minnesota Twins Sign Top Cuban Prospect Yandro Hernandez

But it was reported Friday that Twins are still looking to beef up their rotation. Bobby Nightengale (Star Tribune) says president of baseball operations, Derek Falvey, is open to whichever benefits the Twins more, whether it be a smaller move to add depth at the back-end, or something bigger that lands them more of a “frontline” starter.

It’s not impossible that Scott Boras comes calling for a one-year deal on one of his remaining free agent superstars, like what happened with Carlos Correa ahead of the 2022 season, but that seems highly unlikely, given their self-imposed salary restrictions.

Unlikely to fit a top free-agent starting pitcher into the budget, their best chance to add a frontline starting pitcher is likely through a trade and it would probably require parting with one of their top prospects in addition to any major leaguers.

Bobby Nightengale – Star Tribune

Minnesota Twins Frontline Starting Pitching Targets

The likelier scenario, if the front office goes big-game hunting, is that it takes place on the trade market by using Max Kepler (more on him later) and a top prospect or two for a front-line starter. Minnesota could is also open to rounding out its rotation with a more cost-effective option, either via trade or free agency.

The Twins have rarely pulled off blockbusters for big-name players in recent years. It has not been the mid-market organization’s MO. But with experts around the MLB loving this version of the Twins, that could very well change. Here’s a look at a couple high-end targets for Minnesota.

Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox

Trading within the division is rare. It’s also something we’ve seen more in Major League Baseball compared to other major professional North American sports. Minnesota would likely have to pay more of a premium to acquire Cease from the White Sox. That complicates things. But we do know that the Twins have checked in on Cease multiple times this offseason.

Would Chicago have interest in Kepler? It’s an open question given where the team is right now. Instead, the Twins send out multiple top-end prospects for Cease while recouping some minor leaguers in a separate Kepler trade ahead of Opening Day.

• Dylan Cease stats (2023): 7-9 record, 4.58 ERA, 1.42 WHIP

These numbers were not on par with what we saw from the former American League Cy Young runner-up in 2022. He posted a 2.20 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 3.10 FIP while striking out 227 batters in 184 innings that season. A return to form for the 28-year-old righty has to be expected.

Cease would take over the ace spot in Minnesota, headlining an awesome rotation that also includes Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober as mainstays. He could also push either Chris Paddack or Anthony DeSclafani to more of a long man role, expanding depth and stretching innings from the bullpen in the process.

The cost might be an issue here. It was reported back in January that Chicago was demanding the Cincinnati Reds’ top-three prospects in return for Cease. That’s laughable. That’s not happening. Given that MLB.com has Cincinnati with the fifth-best farm system and Minnesota ranks 17th, the haul of minor leaguers would be real.

Top prospect, outfielder Walker Jenkins, is likely a no-go here. Instead, shortstop Brooks Lee and pitcher Marco Raya would have to headline a deal for Cease.

Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians

This is a similar situation as Cease. Although, Bieber has had more consistent success than his AL Central counterpart. He also has one more season of team control than Cease, something that would loom large for an organization like Minnesota.

What we do know is that Bieber is also coming off a down season. He pitched to a 6-6 record with a 3.80 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 2023. Compare that to a 13-8 mark with a 2.88/1.04 spilt in 2022, and there has to be a bit of concern. But we also expect a return to the mean here. From 2019-22, the 28-year-old righty posted a split of 2.91/1.05 with a FIP of 2.95. Those are better numbers than Cease.

A deal of this ilk might actually force Minnesota to move off Jenkins. It seems like a strong unlikelihood. Instead, Lee with a ton of other prospects would likely be in the cards. That’s especially true with Royce Lewis manning shortstop in Minneapolis.

Related: Derek Falvey Says Minnesota Twins are Still Working on More Potential Moves

Minnesota Twins Depth Starter Options

Not to take the excitement away from Twins fans. But this seems to be the likelier scenario. There is at least one interesting mid-rotation arm that could potentially be had on the trade block. A couple cost-effective free agents could make sense, too.

Noah Syndergaard, Free Agent

A report from Jon Morosi of MLB Network included the Twins as a potential landing spot for this injury-plagued former All-Star. Syndergaard could be had on the cheap given his struggles with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cleveland Guardians a season ago (6.50 ERA, 1.39 WHIP).

At 31 and having made all of 45 starts since the end of the 2019 season, it’s hard to fathom the Twins’ brass having a ton of confidence in Syndergaard making a real impact.

However, there is another point to look at here. The American League Central promises to be bad once again in 2024. Why not see if Syndergaard can make an impact early in the season? It won’t cost you too much as it relates to an on-field product in the division.

If the signing provides to be futile, a new trade market for starting pitching would have opened up by then. Simply put, Minnesota is not going to lose the division within the first couple months of the season.

Michael Lorenzen, Free Agent

Lorenzen, 32, would likely cost more from a financial perspective than Syndergaard. But he also has more of a recent track record of success. An All-Star last season, he pitched to a 3.58 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 18 starts with the Detroit Tigers. Lorenzen then struggle after being dealt to the Philadelphia Phillies (5.51 ERA, 1.46 WHIP).

In reality, Lorenzen would likely slide into the No. 4 spot in Minnesota’s rotation. Given how slow the MLB free agent market has played out for pitchers of his ilk, this could also be a cost-effective option for the Twins.

Related: Minnesota Twins Players are Starting to Trickle into Fort Myers for 2024 Spring Training

Jesús Luzardo, Miami Marlins

Let’s be clear. This is not necessarily based on any reporting linking the 26-year-old Luzardo to Minnesota. Instead, it’s what I envision being an absolutely perfect fit. The former Oakland Athletics top prospect is under team control for the next three seasons. He’s just now hitting his prime and absolutely does have ace stuff.

After some early-career struggles, Luzardo has rounded into form over the past two seasons. That span has seen him pitch to a 3.52 ERA and 1.15 WHIP while striking out a studly 10.6 batters per nine innings. So, why would the Miami Marlins part with him? They have an excess of pitching and are looking for hitting.

It really is that simple. Luzardo has also been mentioned as a trade candidate throughout the summer months. And there’s no better relationship between front offices in the league right now than the Twins and Marlins, after the Lopez/Arraez deal worked so well for both teams last offseason.

This scenario could include Kepler heading to Miami with a couple mid-level prospects mixed in. That is to say, youngsters ranked in the middle of the Twins’ top-30 prospects. Outfielder Jose Rodriguez comes to mind as an option.