In reality, the Vikings aren’t monitoring the NFL draft odds this weekend. But in another dimension operated by FootballOutsiders.com — a popular football analytics website referenced regularly by NFL pundits — they probably should be.

DVOA Hates the Minnesota Vikings

See, Football Outsiders worships a team efficiency metric they created, called DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). And DVOA absolutely hates the 2023-24 Vikings.

In fact, they have the worst DVOA of any playoff team since 2016 and the 9th worst in the last 40+ years. None of the other teams on this list made it past the divisional round, though none of those teams were ranked as high as a 3-seed.

Not only did the Vikings’ regular season -13.8% DVOA rank near the bottom of the projected playoff pool, but it ranked near the bottom of the entire NFL (27th). The Bucs (-0.7%) and Giants (-4.7%) were the only other two playoff teams that finished the season with a negative DVOA.

No Chance for Vikings…?

Football Outsiders doesn’t just doubt the Vikings this postseason. They’re calling a 2022-23 Super Bowl impossible, giving Kevin O’Connell & co a 0.3% chance of winning the organization’s first ever Lombardi Trophy.

That’s the worst odds of all 14 postseason teams. According to the site, it is even far worse than their Wildcard opponent, the New York Giants, who have a 1.4% chance at a title.

Nobody Cares

It’s true, the Minnesota Vikings are not the best 3-seed in NFL history. I think everyone agrees with that. But football games are decided on the gridiron, not on a spreadsheet, and this 2022-23 Vikings team has proven that.

The NFC is weak, too. The Philadelphia Eagles haven’t played well in a month and we do not know how healthy Jalen Hurts is. The 49ers have been dominating (winners of 10-straight) but they’re entering the tournament with the last pick of the 2022 draft, Brock Purdy, as their QB. Would it shock the world if he stumbled at some point?

Then, there’s Dallas, New York, Tampa Bay and Seattle. Nobody is afraid of facing those three opponents. So let’s be realistic. This is a wide open NFC and no analytics model can convince me the Vikings have just a 1.6% chance of coming out on top.

Screw DVOA.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

As of 10 AM on Wednesday morning, the (10-2) Vikings are listed as (+2.5) underdogs vs the (5-7) Detroit Lions. Yes, the game is in the Motor City but the Kitties haven’t been impressive at Ford Field (3-4).

Nerds hate the Vikings, too.

It isn’t just the sportsbooks who do not believe in the NFC North leaders, though. Football nerds have hated them all season, for a variety of reasons. Let’s dive into some of them.

FootballOutsiders.com has a metric that nerds love to use called DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), which “measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent”.

The Vikings rank 18th in the NFL in DVOA, 20th in weighted DVOA. In fact, -5.5 is the worst DVOA of any 10-2 team since 1981, according to FootballOutsiders.com. Next on the list — the 2000 Minnesota Vikings — carried a +2.4 DVOA into week 14 that season. That team eventually lost 41-0 in the NFC Championship.

The nerds are so mad rn. #skol pic.twitter.com/JqJeetUXLr

— Minnesota Sports Fan (@realmnsportsfan) December 7, 2022

Lucky Vikings…

The NFL, itself, has been on a nerd hiring spree, apparently. And those nerds have come up with an actual measurement for what they consider football “luck” (explained here). It’s based on whether or not opponents cash in on opportunities (interceptions, field goals, dropped passes), along with which teams get the “lucky bounces” (mostly based on fumble recoveries?).

According to the NFL, Minnesota ranks as the 4th luckiest team in the league. What’s holding them down? Fumble recovery differential, apparently…

Updated Net Win Probability Added by Luck Dashboard thru Week 13: pic.twitter.com/EExCA6V9d9

— Tom Bliss (@DataWithBliss) December 6, 2022

Overrated Vikings…

Some detractors consider the Vikings lucky, others call them overrated. WalterFootball.com, which may not even qualify as a nerd-run website, has been holding Minnesota down in its weekly power rankings (currently #8) since the start of the season.

Their reasoning: “Overrated NFL Team: See why the Vikings are an overrated NFL team in our Overrated-Underrated page.” I mean, the paragraph written on why they are overrated is out of control. And what I clipped here doesn’t even include what they had to say about the Bills win…

They got the Packers when Green Bay was missing countless starters. They made a comeback versus a Detroit team that suffered a ton of injuries during the game. They squeaked by the Saints even though New Orleans was missing its starting quarterback, running back, and top receiver. They also couldn’t generate any offense in the second half against the Bears, save for the final drive. There was that ridiculous Miami game in which the Dolphins legitimately outgained the Vikings by 224 yards. They beat Arizona in a 50-50 game where the Cardinals were missing four offensive linemen. Minnesota barely got by the Redskins, and they got trashed by the Cowboys. They beat the Patriots, but were outgained in total yards and yards per play. The Vikings have a solid offense and an above-average defense, so I don’t necessarily think that makes them a top-10 team. There was a huge disparity between them and the Eagles and Cowboys.

WalterFootball.com

You either believe… or you don’t.

Much like an 8-year-old kid has to decide whether or not they want to believe in Santa Clause, Vikings fans might have to decide whether or not they believe in their favorite football team.

The evidence is all around us, if you want to doubt your beliefs. Maybe, mom and dad forgot to move the Elf on the Shelf last night. That’s just like how the Vikings’ offensive line sometimes forgets to block for Kirk Cousins. Kids oftentimes find presents from Santa unwrapped in the closet. Much like how opposing quarterbacks find a lot of open wide receivers in the Vikings’ secondary.

I’ve made this analogy the last couple of nights on Minnesota Sports Fan Daily, and it rings true. Because on Christmas, whether your kids believe in Santa or not, presents are going to be under the tree. And at the end of this 2022 regular season, the Minnesota Vikings are going to be in the playoffs.

From there, anything can happen, right? The kids might unwrap a new iPad or hoverboard. On the contrary, they could be disappointed with a pair of sox, maybe a savings bond. Just like the Vikings could unwrap a divisional round loss that ends their postseason in haste. But maybe… just maybe, there’s a Super Bowl run under that playoff tree, after all.

The Vikings are still a new team that has a lot to learn about new schemes on both sides of the ball. The nerds and sharps might disagree, but once the playoffs start, anything can happen.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan