The Twins had a handful of cases to resolve and managed to reach deals with all but one key contributor. It’s been an eventful few months for Joe Ryan, and Thursday added yet another chapter.

Joe Ryan and MN Twins Can’t Come to Terms

Last season, the Minnesota Twins executed one of the more aggressive trade deadline resets in recent memory. Poor results down the stretch led to a 70–92 finish and managerial changes this offseason. Ryan’s relationship with the front office appeared strained at times, then seemingly repaired. Now, he remains the lone arbitration-eligible Twin without a contract.

#MNTwins reached agreements with all of their arbitrator-eligible players except Joe Ryan.

— DanHayesMLB (@DanHayesMLB) January 8, 2026

According to The Athletic’s Dan Hayes, the two sides came close to an agreement today, but ultimately failed to finalize a deal. This isn’t the first time the Twins and Ryan have differed on his value. During the summer, Minnesota reportedly sought a return from the Boston Red Sox that the latter was unwilling to meet.

The next step is the exchange of arbitration figures between Ryan’s representatives and the Twins. The sides could still compromise and settle before a hearing, but if the gap remains too wide, the case will go before a neutral arbitrator.

MLB Trade Rumors, widely considered the gold standard for arbitration projections, estimated Ryan’s 2026 salary at $5.8 million. He earned $3 million in 2025. Minnesota filed at $5.85 million while Ryan was looking for $6.35 million.

Ryan was a first-time All-Star last season for Minnesota. Across 31 appearances (30 starts), he logged 171 innings with a 3.42 ERA (3.74 FIP) and struck out 194 batters, further solidifying himself as one of the Twins’ top two starting pitchers.

Twins Get Other Arbitration Players Under Contract

Beyond Ryan, the Twins had six other players who were arbitration-eligible for 2026. All of them reached agreements, avoiding hearings entirely.

Of that group, Bailey Ober’s deal stood out as the most surprising relative to projections. It’s an unusual moment for Ober to exceed expectations in compensation given how his season unfolded.

Ober posted a 5.10 ERA (4.90 FIP) last year while throwing just 146 2/3 innings. Injuries and ineffectiveness plagued him throughout the season, and his 1.8 home runs allowed per nine innings marked a clear career high. A rebound from Ober may end up being one of the most critical developments for the Twins in 2026.

There’s been no shortage of commentary pointing to the need for bullpen reinforcements. Derek Falvey gutted the unit at the trade deadline, and Derek Shelton will be hard-pressed to piece together consistent game plans with the group currently in place.

Bullpen Pieces Remain the Key for Minnesota Twins

Shelton inherits a relief corps filled with more questions than answers. Cole Sands, Justin Topa, and Kody Funderburk are serviceable arms, but none should be operating in high-leverage roles. Those pitchers were moved, and ESPN’s David Shoenfield sees bullpen reconstruction as the defining factor of the Twins’ the 2026 season.

The Twins ranked 28th in the majors in bullpen win probability added — better only than the Arizona Diamondbacks and White Sox and an explanation of why the Twins went 4-11 in extra-inning games. Overall, the Twins ranked 27th in bullpen ERA, 23rd in strikeout rate and 28th in batting average allowed. Now for the bigger issue concerning 2026: Jhoan Duran (2.01 ERA), Louis Varland (2.02 ERA), Brock Stewart (2.38 ERA) and Griffin Jax (72 strikeouts in 46 innings) were all traded in the deadline dump, leaving Justin Topa, Cole Sands and Kody Funderburk as the top holdovers.

Successful bullpens can often materialize out of nowhere and in a winnable AL Central, that’s what will have to be the case with the Twins. Maybe some of the pitchers who don’t make the rotation — David Festa, Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, Marco Raya — end up as relievers. Sands has a five-pitch mix, including a plus splitter and curveball, that could make him an effective closer, but the Twins lack guys who throw in the upper 90s. The Twins have a potentially good rotation and a sleeper lineup with some top prospects on the way. The bullpen might tell the story of where the 2026 team ultimately finishes though.

David Schoenfield – ESPN

Minnesota did sign 33-year-old veteran Dan Altavilla to a minor-league deal, and he will certainly push for an Opening Day roster spot. Altavilla posted a 2.48 ERA over 29 innings with the White Sox last season, though his 5.45 FIP paints a more modest picture of that performance.

It’s possible that one of the converted starters, someone like Marco Raya, David Festa, or Connor Prielipp, could eventually approach something close to Griffin Jax-level effectiveness out of the bullpen. Expecting any of them to step into that role immediately, however, would be poor planning.

Falvey has shown an ability to build effective bullpens in the past. Outside of the Addison Reed contract, he has rarely spent heavily in that area. Both factors suggest there’s a reasonable path forward if the front office chooses to act.

The MN Twins lost 92 games last season. It would be deeply disappointing to see the rotation and lineup rebound, only for the bullpen to once again provide nothing of substance. If Minnesota wants its turnaround to be real, it’s time to start making additions.

They sorted out Justin Topa’s contract situation, avoiding arbitration with the 34-year-old righty reliever by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $2 million. They also traded for a new backup catcher, in 29-year-old veteran Alex Jackson.

No non-tenders for Minnesota Twins, including Trevor Larnach

The acquisition of Jackson made for seven Twins players who needed to be tendered or signed, before Friday’s arbitration deadline.

After some rumblings that Trevor Larnach could be on his way out, Minnesota opted to tender the corner outfielder, along with the other five arb-eligible Twins remaining after Topa signed his deal Thursday.

Aside from Trevor Larnach, the #MNTwins offered a contract to everyone else — Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Cole Sands, Alex Jackson, Ryan Jeffers and Royce Lewis –after DFA'ing DaShawn Keirsey Jr. earlier in the day.

— DanHayesMLB (@DanHayesMLB) November 21, 2025

Trevor Larnach: Tendered. #MNTwins

— Darren Wolfson (@DWolfsonKSTP) November 21, 2025

MLB Trade Rumors projects Trevor Larnach’s 2026 salary at $4.7 million. He made $2.5 million in 2025. It’s not that the salary increase is substantial, but for a team that looks destined to have a bottom-of-the-barrel payroll , it still seems unlikely he’ll be in Fort Myers for Spring Training.

Larnach is a left-handed outfielder on a team with a boatload of left-handed outfielders. Across 442 big league games he has a .241/.323/.403 split with a 101 OPS+.

Back-to-back days with a home run for Trevor! pic.twitter.com/qdqbiIApmv

— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) August 5, 2025

Larnach’s 116 OPS+ in 2024 was a career-best. Unfortunately the development didn’t continue, and he’s hardly been the exit velocity power hitter that the front office dreamed on when grabbing him out of Oregon State in the first round.

Derek Falvey has been shopping Larnach long before Friday, and those conversations can now continue this winter. It’s unlikely Larnach generates anything substantial in return, if the Twins can indeed find a trade partner.

Other MN Twins tendered

The other tender candidates include Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, who are both penciled in as front-line starters in next year’s rotation… if the MN Twins don’t trade them first. Sands is the top member of a gutted bullpen, along with Topa. Both Jeffers and Lewis will be every day starters.

Right now the only guaranteed money on the books is allotted to Byron Buxton ($15.1 million) and Pablo Lopez ($21.75 million). They have ten players eligible for arbitration, and bringing some of that talent back will help to fill out the roster.

MLB Trade Rumors has long been the gold standard when figuring out what arbitration salaries may look like. 2026 projections became public on Monday.

Twins arbitration projections paint a picture

Major League Baseball affords a period of time for organizations to keep players under team control. Before reaching free agency, players are granted raises through an arbitration process. Either the team and player can agree on a number, or they go to a hearing. The Twins have ten eligible players this offseason, and MLB Trade Rumors has outlined where they may land.

There’s a lot to break down here. Of the ten players up for arbitration, five seem like slam dunks. Royce Lewis, Ryan Jeffers, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, and Cole Sands will all be offered contracts. Trevor Larnach seems like a candidate on the fence, and there are a handful of veterans that could easily be replaced with others at the minimum.

Both Jeffers ($6.6M) and Ryan ($5.8M) become serious trade candidates for Derek Falvey with their values creeping upwards. Minnesota already dangled Ryan at the trade deadline, and he pairs with Pablo Lopez as potential salary dumps this offseason.

Larnach is an interesting case. At $4.7 million he’s no longer cheap. With a career OPS+ of just 101, he’s barely been over league averaged, and the power he was drafted for has translated into a single season (2025 – 17) with more than 15 homers.

There are also four relievers among the group. Only Cole Sands has been an above-average option, but the Twins bullpen was torn down to the studs at the trade deadline. How Falvey goes about rebuilding that group remains to be seen.

If the Minnesota Twins keep each of the five expected players, they’d add roughly $21.3 million to their 2026 payroll. Combined with Buxton and Lopez, that would push the overall amount to $58.15 million with seven of the 26 roster spots filled.

Sure, the Twins are leading the American League Central and have a record of 32-24. But the Yankees hold the best record in baseball (39-15). They’ve scored 102 more runs than their opponents so far this season. The next highest run differential in the AL is the Houston Astros at +45.

Yankees Rising, Twins Floating

That’s what happens when your team has 6 starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.02 or less and your batting lineup ranks 3rd in the MLB in OPS, 1st in home runs and 6th in runs scored. The Twins, on the other hand, are just trying to tread water during the toughest stretch of their young season, while they wait for their best players to return from injury or virus related absences.

#MNTwins have 18 members of their 40-man roster unavailable to play right now.

Hitters:
G. Celestino
C. Correa
M. Kepler
R. Lewis
M. Sanó

Pitchers:
J. Alcala
D. Coulombe
R. Dobnak
S. Gray
K. Maeda
T. Megill
C. Paddack
E. Pagán
J. Romero
J. Ryan
C. Stashak
C. Thielbar
J. Winder

— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) June 3, 2022

But are there certain Twins players who should be back already? The answer to that question depends on who you ask. RHP Cole Sands will start for Minnesota on Tuesday night, in part because Joe Ryan isn’t back from his COVID IL stint. According to Rocco Baldelli, he could need a rehab stint before returning to the Twins starting rotation.

Where is Joe Ryan?

If you ask Joe Ryan, however, the answer will be different. Darren Wolfson (KSTP, SKOR North) has been digging around and in contact with Ryan’s camp the last couple days. And according to what Doogie told SKOR North today, Ryan doesn’t believe he needs a rehab stint at all. Joe’s ready right now and wants to be on the mound pitching vs the Yankees this week. Ryan’s 2.28 ERA and .992 WHIP certainly look better than Sands’ 7.88 ERA and 1.625 WHIP.

Joe Ryan is ready to pitch and wants to be on the mound tonight vs the Yankees but Rocco Baldelli and the #MNTwins have other ideas. (via @DWolfsonKSTP on @SKORNorth) pic.twitter.com/pBmMogCe5B

— Minnesota Sports Fan (@realmnsportsfan) June 7, 2022

“Well [Joe Ryan] has been throwing at Target Field. He’s been in town. I’m told he feels fine. He’s out of that COVID bubble. He’s fine. To me, Judd, I’d love to see him tonight against the Yankees at Target Field. But signs point to it being Cole Sands. That it won’t be Joe Ryan. That the Twins have legitimately talked about Joe Ryan going on some sort of quick rehab assignment.”

“I don’t think he needs a rehab assignment. Those close to him, I sense, don’t think he needs a rehab assignment. Get Joe Ryan back in the Twins rotation this week. Whether it’s this series vs New York or this weekend series vs Tampa. Joe Ryan should be starting this week at Target Field, not wherever the St. Paul Saints are. Joe Ryan should be starting for the Twins. He is ready to go.”

Darren Wolfson – SKOR North

New World Order

I understand not wanting to put one of your players in a bad spot, where he could re-injure himself coming back from injury too quickly. Sometimes, you have to protect your players from themselves. But Joe Ryan isn’t coming back from injury.

He’s coming back from a run-in with a respiratory virus that has little evidence of affecting a healthy human in his mid-twenties. I’m old enough to remember when we lauded athletes, pre-2019, for battling through respiratory viruses and performing their athletic duties admirably, while under the weather.

Now, in 2022, we won’t even let Joe Ryan take the mound AFTER he has recovered from a virus and tested out of all protocols. There are no rules or regulations stopping Joe Ryan from getting back on the mound. Just an over-cautious coach and front office navigating through a world that has given up on the meaning of science, among many other things.

So now, this is what the Minnesota Twins will run out vs the best pitching staff in the Major Leagues. Good luck. They’ll need it.

Cole Sands starts tonight for the #MNTwins. Series probables in full for Twins-Yankees:

6/7: Sands vs. Taillon
6/8: Archer vs. Cortes
6/9: Bundy vs. Cole

— Do-Hyoung Park (@dohyoungpark) June 7, 2022

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan