There have been rumors Carlos Correa, Pablo Lopez and just about every other notable name are on the trade block, but if those names return, it’s very plausible they are competitive yet again. The AL Central was tightly contested last season. Minnesota, Cleveland, Detroit and Kansas City all finished within 10 games of one another.

Aside from the White Sox being literally the worst team in Major League Baseball history, the division was one of the more competitive in baseball last summer. The problem for the Minnesota Twins came when they played against teams at the top of the MLB food chain, which isn’t a new issue. ESPN’s David Schoenfield wrote Thursday about the Twins’ biggest kryptonite.

Minnesota Twins can’t beat good teams…?

“That was the Twins’ record against the Yankees (0-6), Guardians (3-10) and Orioles (0-6), the three best teams in the AL in 2024. The Twins went 5-9 against the three best AL teams in 2023 (when they won a weak AL Central with 87 wins) and 6-14 against them in 2022 (finishing 78-84). That’s a three-year record of 14-45 against the top three teams in the AL.”

David Schoenfield on the Twins struggles against good teams (ESPN)

Minnesota was 10.5 games back in the division, but seven of those games were a direct result of losing to the Guardians. The early two-game sweep at Target Field set the tone and they never recovered from there.

The consistent inability to beat the New York Yankees is also brutal. Juan Soto isn’t in Aaron Boone’s lineup for 2025, but Minnesota has never had the upper hand in that matchup. The Twins don’t necessarily need to win these season series’ but they can’t afford for the tallies to be so lopsided.

Related: Minnesota Twins Trade Lefty Reliever to Boston for Utility Help

Fears about playoff performance aren’t unfounded. There are no bad teams in the playoffs, especially as you get deeper into October. So… what’s the problem? Why can’t the Twins figure it out vs the best teams in the league? Because they don’t have enough talent, according to Schoenfield.

It seems as if the Twins just aren’t talented enough to beat the best teams. It’s unclear how they’ll change that in 2025. Certainly, getting Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton on the field more often will help — but at this point, can you really count on those three averaging, say, 130 games? Not really. The Twins have the versatility to fill in for that trio with multi-faceted Willi Castro plus shortstop Brooks Lee. But the Twins, hamstrung by their payroll situation, have been unable to add new talent to the roster. The division is still winnable, but they’ll have to figure out how to beat Cleveland head-to-head.”

How can the Twins right the ship…?

This offseason, Derek Falvey is strapped for additional funds, which makes adding more talent pretty difficult. Hopefully that will change under new ownership. Until then, as Schoenfield notes, it’ll be up to Correa, Buxton and Lewis to produce.

Consistency is the key for the Twins. The inability to generate a baseline level of lineup performance was a problem each of the past two seasons. David Popkins is out as the hitting coach and Matt Borgschulte will be tasked with finding answers.

Related: Former Minnesota Twin Retiring After 12 MLB Seasons

There are a couple of key issues that stick out for the Minnesota Twins, when taking a deeper look at the numbers. For a team that regularly utilizes pinch hitters (356 plate appearances from substitutes), a .662 OPS with just 29 extra-base hits isn’t a good enough result. That’s a near 70-point drop in OPS compared to starters.

Royce Lewis missed his sixth career grand slam by a foot.

It would have tied him for seventh-most in #MNTwins history.

Instead, he'll have to settle for a two-run double. Lewis is now 9-for-17 (.529) with 30 RBIs in his career with the bases loaded.pic.twitter.com/UWS9Vx2dhx

— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) September 12, 2024

Hitting with runners in scoring position is also a huge problem. Last season, the Minnesota Twins had 155 plate appearances with the bases loaded, where they slashed .234/.279/.367, hitting only one grand slam, and 13 extra-base hits.

If Minnesota wants to contend with the best teams, then they’ll need their best production when opportunities present themselves. Consistency is a must in 2025, and there’s a clear path to reversing course from an otherwise ugly season.

But more than likely, this is a playoff team. Entering Sunday, the Twins sit two games up on the 2nd AL Wildcard spot and 4.5 games up on Boston, the only team not currently in the playoff field, who still stands a chance.

2024 American League playoff picture has a lot of AL Central in it

Meanwhile, the American League Central Division race is far from over. The Twins trail the Cleveland Guardians by just two games. The Royals, who hold the third and final AL Wildcard spot, are just four games back.

Related: If the Minnesota Twins Can Just Limp to the Regular Season Finish Line…

The Minnesota Twins are one of the hottest teams in baseball, winning five of their last six games, including three straight vs the Texas Rangers (going for four) this weekend. Kansas City, winners of three straight, haven’t been bad either (other than losing two of three to the Twins last week). Their division rival Cleveland Guardians, on the other hand, have lost nine of their last 14, including losses in their last two games.

Cleveland Guardians are lucky, Minnesota Twins (surprise) are not…

And if luck charts tells us anything, the Guardians will either enter the 2024 MLB postseason as the luckiest team in all of baseball, or they are due for one of those major league caliber late-season meltdowns I mentioned earlier in this article.

According to one MLB simulator’s “Pot O’ Gold” chart, there is no more fortunate team in the league than the one playing home games in Cleveland, OH. The Twins, meanwhile, rank as the 8th unluckiest team. Shocker.

Updated pot-o-gold chart that sums the lucky games (+1) with the unlucky games (-1) in 2024 for each team. #Guardians so far the luckiest and #Braves the unluckiest#MLB #Statcast #MLBSim #Baseball pic.twitter.com/0EhYxrVnFX

— MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter (@mlb_simulator) August 18, 2024

The funniest (maybe saddest?) part about this chart is that it does not factor in player injuries. This is about teams that get on base off balls in play that they should not reach base on, vs those that can’t buy a hit, even when they hit pee rockets off the bat.

Related: The Twins Were Right About Joe Ryan’s Injury

One of the reasons why Cleveland has been so good this season is because they’ve remained remarkably healthy. All of their big hitters and most of their best pitchers have been available for almost the entirety of the 2024 summer. As we all know, that has not been the case in Minnesota.

If the Twins can continue to play well, and get some of their best players back, it appears very likely they could pass the Guardians in the Central, which would more than likely mean a first round bye in the playoffs.

It won’t be easy. The Guardians have sat atop the AL Central since April 14. A handful of games may not seem like a massive mountain to climb. Nonetheless, it’s a peak they haven’t really reached through 96 games.

Minnesota Twins projected to pass Cleveland Guardians in AL Central

It’s only a matter of time, though. At least that’s what The Athletic’s MLB projection model believes. It has the Twins finishing the 2024 season with 89.5 wins, just sneaking in ahead of their division rival (89.1).

For those who remember what the pre-season projections models and betting odds said about the American League Central, this isn’t surprising. If that’s your mindset then the only thing notable in the chart above is how many AL Central teams have a chance at making the 2024 MLB postseason.

Related: Royce Lewis, Brock Stewart Both Believe They’re Ready; Twins Say They’re Not

Back then, the Twins were supposed to easily walk away with the AL Central, even after an offseason of payroll cuts. Instead, it’s been one of the best divisions in baseball. And not only that, but The Athletic’s model has Minnesota receiving a first round playoff bye, which is granted to the top two division winners in each league.

Minnesota Twins projected to receive first round playoff bye?

While the Orioles are projected to finish with a much better record than the Twins, they are in the same division as the Yankees, who the model predicts will have the best record in the AL, once the dust settles on the 2024 regular season. That means Baltimore would drop to the No. 1 wildcard and Minnesota would receive the 2-seed. Cleveland, meanwhile, squeaks in with the final wildcard spot in the league.

The year keeps changing, but my model continues to underrate the Cleveland Guardians. The Guardians have a 4.5-game lead at the break, but the simulations are favoring the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central. Again, subjectively, that number seems a bit off, but I wouldn’t be rushing to the window to bet BetMGM’s price of -175 for the Guardians to win the division. My money would be on the Twins at +200.

Austin Mock – The Athletic

Obviously, this isn’t the first time this projection model has reflected poorly on the Guardians likelihood of winning the AL Central. Is that a product of Mock’s model missing something, or is Cleveland looking at an inevitable 2nd half slide?

We are about to find out…

Most recently, we’ve seen huge scoreboard renovations that were team-initiated, along with a monstrous skyscraper just across the street that was not. In the past, we’ve seen trees go up and down in centerfield and batters eye changes on an almost yearly basis.

Cleveland Guardians’ success assisted by removal of right field shipping containers?

But none of those stadium renovations have ever resulted in what is happening over at Progressive Field for the 2024 Cleveland Guardians. During this last offseason, there were massive shipping containers removed from the upper deck in right field at the Guardians home stadium.

So, instead of massive walls up in right field, blocking the jet stream that often blows that way, anytime there is wind in Cleveland, the air now flows freely. Like… very freely. Watch this video. Some of the facts laid out are listed below, along with a transcript from the beginning.

It all makes sense now for the 40-20 first-place Cleveland Guardians. pic.twitter.com/MZcwHl5VU2

— Declan Goff (@DexsTweets) June 5, 2024

“The Guardians removed these [shipping containers] from their stadium, which may have created a wind tunnel in their stadium, which might be making it a lot easier for players to hit home runs. And all of a sudden, they’re hitting more home runs than ever.

[David Fry hit a ball that] only had a 10% chance of a hit and ended up being a homer somehow, and the pitcher couldn’t believe it. Jose Ramirez hit this homer in May. Last season, Max Muncy hit a ball 2.6 mph harder, with the same launch angle and the ball went 31 feet shorter.

Balls are flying out to right field in Cleveland. This podcaster first theorized in April that when the Guardians removed these shipping containers from right field, the wind stopped bouncing off thee containers and back toward the field. Instead, the wind was now flowing through the stadium, making fly balls go significantly further every time they’re hit to right.”

Related: Minnesota Twins Pitching Prospect Moves into MLB Top 100

Since those shipping containers were removed from Progressive Field, the below has become true (according to the video):

• In 2023, Progressive Field allowed the fewest HRs of any stadium in the MLB (1.58 per game)
  • In 2024, it ranks 15th in home runs allowed (2.3 per game)
• There have been 40 MLB homers this season with an expected batting average of .200 or less
  • Progressive Field owns 10 of them
  • No other stadium in the MLB has more than 4
• SS Tyler Freeman hit a HR to RF earlier this season that had an exit velocity of only 89 MPH and launch angle of 33 degrees
  • No ball in statcast era history has been hit that soft and that high, and gone over the fence
  • It had a 3% chance of being a hit
• This time last year, the Guardians ranked last in the MLB in home runs
  • This year, they rank 10th

So, we no longer have to wonder why the Cleveland Guardians are having such a huge season, especially on offense. They know that, when the wind is blowing the right way in Progressive Field this season, all they have to do is push something up into that wind tunnel and it flys out of the ballpark.

So what happened? Well, let’s start with the pitch selection: a 0-0 83 MPH curveball that 26-year-old right fielder Will Brennan snuck over the right field fence at Progressive Field. It certainly wasn’t a terrible pitch and the location was solid. Sometimes, the hitter is just better.

Will Brennan calls game! #Walkoff pic.twitter.com/o6nV5i0H4Y

— MLB (@MLB) May 19, 2024

But after the game, Duran was asked why he threw so many offspeed pitches on Sunday, when he has a 103 MPH heater in his back pocket. According to ESPN, Jhoan threw eight offspeed pitches vs just five fastballs.

Jhoan Duran points finger at Minnesota Twins coaches after walk off home run

His answer was eyebrow raising, at the least. Instead of going with the generic, ‘yeah, you try to make the right pitch and sometimes the batter is just better’, the Minnesota Twins’ flamethrower pointed his finger at the coaching staff, opting for the ‘I’m just an employee, the coaches tell me what to do’ answer.

Adding to the intrigue, Duran took the blame for an offspeed pitch that was smacked by Jose Ramirez on Friday night, during the first game of this 3-game series. It’s also important to note that pitching coach Pete Maki initiated a mound visit with Duran and Jeffers, just before that final Will Brennan at-bat got started.

After Duran received a mound visit from pitching coach Pete Maki, his first-pitch curveball was drilled over the right field wall.

“The first time, [the curveball] was on my own,” said Duran, referring to a go-ahead home run he allowed to José Ramírez on Friday. “This time, it’s not my decision. I thought [Brennan] wasn’t good with fastballs. I’m an employee here, so whatever I need to throw, I need to throw it.”

Star Tribune

Related: Byron Buxton Speaks Candidly About Chronic Knee Injury

Clearly, Jhoan Duran was not planning on throwing a curveball to Will Brennan, to start that at-bat. He wanted to bring the heat, Pete Maki must’ve convinced him to go with the spinner. He hit his spot, and Brennan still banged it over the fence. Thus, Duran was not happy when doing this interview postgame.

Is this just a heat of the moment vent session for Jhoan Duran or something bigger? I guess we will find that out in due time.

Through the first quarter of the season, it has been the Twins, Cleveland Guardians, Kansas City Royals, and Detroit Tigers that have all shown differing levels of competitiveness. While Stephen Vogt’s club has led the group from the get go, a Royals team that spent has remained in the thick of things, while A.J. Hinch’s Tigers have hovered around .500. Only the Chicago White Sox, which was to be expected, have been a complete disaster.

Minnesota Twins Facing Tough Test in AL Central

If the Minnesota Twins are going to repeat as division champions in the AL Central then they’ll need to remain substantially more consistent than they have out of the gate. While the pitching staff has largely been unphased by the departures of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, the lineup has missed productive stretches from Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, and Byron Buxton.

Rocco Baldelli’s club hit and pitched their way back into competitiveness, but the schedule now starts to add in multiple divisional opponents. With a three-game set kicking off in Cleveland, and a four-game home series with Kansas City not far off, the Twins can do themselves plenty of favors when trying to distance themselves from those they are most closely connected to.

3️⃣ STRAIGHT DAYS FOR SLAMTANA! pic.twitter.com/U2AjBDnai8

— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) May 12, 2024

As of Friday, there are four teams within six games of the division leading Guardians. The only other division that currently has that many teams still competitive is the AL East, which includes four teams at or over .500. There’s nobody out there crowning the American League Central as the best division in baseball. But without a doubt, it’s far from the worst.

Offseason Narratives Are Hollow for AL Central

The talk of this offseason was about what every AL Central team failed to do, aside from the Kansas City Royals. Signing Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha never should have been viewed as organizational shifting deals, but with the Twins and Guardians failing to spend any real dollars, it was only the Kings of Kauffman that were given positive momentum.

Starting out the year, Kansas City made waves with their new acquisitions immediately showing up in the box score. Cleveland was dealt a big injury blow in the form of Shane Bieber, but the collective roster came to play just as they have always done with Jose Ramirez leading the way. It took some time for the Twins to join the party, but an ugly offseason never truly provided them with momentum out of the gate.

Now with the top three teams looking to separate themselves, it will be interesting to see who has staying power. Both Minnesota and Cleveland have been here before and are expected to remain as the best bets to make the postseason. While Kansas City seems likely to fade, it remains to be seen when, and how substantially that will happen.

The early action for most divisions across Major League Baseball is largely reflective of teams feeling each other out and trying to find their way. You really can’t win a division in the first couple of months, but the Chicago White Sox definitely lost the AL Central out of the gate. As Minnesota, Cleveland, and Kansas City settle in, it will be through the heart of the summer that they find their identities.

Related: What Does MLB’s New Statcast Bat Tracking Say About the Minnesota Twins?

As the Twins continue their ascent to the top of the AL Central, it appears likely that neither Cleveland nor Kansas City will bend over. The division might not have the top-tier talent expected from the American or National League East Divisions, but they are going to produce a team that will be a postseason force to be reckoned with.

Twins vs Guardians: What’s on the line this week?

Minnesota landed in Cleveland last night, up 5 games up in the division, with a 95% chance (Fangraphs.com) at winning it and making the playoffs. In order to retain any hope whatsoever of catching the 1st place Twins, before the season expires on October 1, the Guardians must take two of three this week, maybe even sweep.

For the Twins, this is their 2nd opportunity in the last 1.5 weeks to bury their most competitive division foe and burst any dream bubbles their fanbase still has about playing in the 2023 postseason. Twins manager, Rocco Baldelli, said as much after his club failed to sweep the Texas Rangers on getaway Sunday.

“We’re playing good baseball. The guys are working hard, and I think we’re ready,. The guys know what we’ve got to accomplish, and I’m excited to watch it.”

Rocco Baldelli (via Star Tribune)

Upcoming Schedules Favor Minnesota Twins

In all reality, and when you bring context into the conversation like I will below, the Guardians need a sweep if they are going to put any heat on the Twins, down the stretch. If they fail there’s no realistic path to a Guardians postseason berth, given the remaining schedule they and the Twins have remaining.

After Wednesday’s finale in Cleveland, Minnesota will have 7 series remaining in the 2023 season. Just two of those series (Rays, Reds) are against playoff contenders with > .500 record. The Guardians have 8 series left to play and FOUR of them (Giants, Rangers, Orioles, Reds) are vs playoff contenders with > .500 records.

Minnesota has more talented depth and fire-power than Cleveland does, even after the Guardians claimed the three best pitchers waived by LAA last week, ahead of the Twins. But Rocco Baldelli & Co are expecting the return of Alex Kirilloff, Jorge Alcala, Chris Paddack and Byron Buxton from the injured list, sometime in September, too.

Guardians to face Twins’ best pitchers

So to reiterate: Cleveland needs to win (probably sweep) this week’s opening series vs the Twins. But doing so will be much easier said, than done. That’s because the Guardians will have to beat the Twins’ best two starting pitchers, Pablo Lopez (164 IP, 3.72 ERA) and Cy Young candidate, Sonny Gray (157 IP, 2.92 ERA), in games one and two.

Then, after battling two of the AL’s top pitchers on Monday and Tuesday, Cleveland will face the Twins’ most likely 3rd playoff starter, Joe Ryan, in the series finale (Wednesday). Joe has a 2.84 ERA and .562 OPS Allowed in 104.2 healthy innings this season. That includes his first two starts, since coming off the IL a couple of weeks ago (11 IP, 1.64 ERA, 14 SO).

The Joe Ryan Experience: It was good. pic.twitter.com/z6TW4XGgmd

— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) September 2, 2023

If you’re the Cleveland Guardians fanbase on Monday morning, you may not realize it, but your favorite baseball team has a STEEP hill to climb if they want any chance of catching the Minnesota Twins and stealing the AL Central crown. The odds are heavily stacked against them.

But still, baseball games are played on the field, not on probability projections, and the Twins have to go into Progressive Field this week and knock the 2022 champs out of the race, before finishing their schedule strong. That starts with a victory tonight. Do not give them any feeling of hope during this series.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

Jose Ramirez KO’s Tim Anderson

The mind being jarred was Tim Anderson, shortstop for the White Sox, who was absolutely knocked out by Guardians’ 3rd baseman, Jose Ramirez. It all started with what looked like an innocent tag attempt at 2nd base. Clearly, Ramirez didn’t see it that way.

TIM ANDERSON VS JOSE RAMIREZ FIGHT NIGHT @StoolBaseball @barstoolchicago pic.twitter.com/oMf4c2o027

— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) August 6, 2023

You thought Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz was the only heavyweight bout worth paying for tonight but you were wrong. This has to be one of the best and most historic bench clearing brawls in MLB history. Not only did the fight take place at 2nd base, which never really happens, but it ended in a clear knock-out.

Seeing an ump get dirt kicked on him is normal and bullpen pitchers sprinting in from centerfield makes great meme-worthy content. But rarely, and I mean rarely, do we get to see a haymaker that puts a dude on his ass. But on Saturday night, if you were watching Guardians vs White Sox, you got to see exactly that.

Who had Tim Anderson vs Jose Ramirez on tonight’s UFC card?@StoolBaseball @SpinninBackfist
pic.twitter.com/4vhwEgYIW1

— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) August 6, 2023

Sports are the best.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

Losing four-straight games this late into a contested pennant race would surely put a damper on a team’s realistic hopes of making the MLB Postseason, right? Not so fast, my friend. Not if your division rival can’t win games on a regular basis, either.

Guardians Can’t Close

On Wednesday night, as the Twins’ loss was becoming official, the Guardians were toting a 1-0 lead as they grabbed their gloves and trotted onto the turf in Kansas City. for the bottom of the 9th. But the Royals put up two runs before the Guardians could secure three outs. They walked off as losers, after this Salvador Perez SAC fly scored the winning run. That must be why it’s called a “walk-off”.

SALVY FOR THE WIN!!!

TV: Bally Sports Kansas City
Stream: https://t.co/Skk97QhsGO#Royals pic.twitter.com/L0t5HLEXEu

— Bally Sports Kansas City (@BallySportsKC) September 8, 2022

So, even though the Minnesota Twins have lost three-straight games to the Yankees and six of their last ten total, they still remain just two games behind the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central and well within shouting distance of a playoff spot. Because the Guardians are dealing with their own struggles, losing seven of their last ten, including five-straight vs the Orioles and Mariners, before arriving in KC.

Now, let’s look at Thursday. While the Twins are finishing their four-game series in the Bronx, the Guardians have an off day. That means, if Sonny Gray can somehow outduel Cy Young candidate, Nestor Cortez, and the good guys can secure a finale victory tonight, the Twins will head back to Minnesota just 1.5 games back in the AL Central.

AL Central still up for grabs

Guess who will be there waiting for them? You guessed it. Not only do the Twins and Cleveland Guardians play three games against each other this weekend, but they will play five of their next eight vs one another. In other words, the division is still wide open.

Even if you want to give up on the Minnesota Twins season, and I tried to do it yesterday, you can’t. Because the Guardians can’t finish them off. And this isn’t a two-team race, either.

The Chicago White Sox did secure a victory on Wednesday and moved into a tie with the Twins. They too sit just two games back of Cleveland, in the division. And Minnesota will still play Chicago six more times this season, too.

The #Twins get swept by the #Yankees.
The #Guardians lose to the #Royals after blowing 9th-inning lead.
The #WhiteSox come back and beat the #Mariners.
These three teams are now separated by just 2 games in the AL Central race.

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) September 8, 2022

Like it or not, baseball season is far from over. Maybe Carlos Correa can do us all a favor and heat up a little bit in clutch moments…

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

Yes, three wildcard teams will make the MLB Postseason in 2022, and going forward. That means 6 teams in each conference and 12 playoff teams in total. Two teams in each conference will receive a 1st-round bye and will not participate in Wildcard Weekend. That leaves the worst division winner of the three (the AL Central this season), and three wildcard teams to duke it out.

Twins’ Playoff Picture

The AL West (Astros) and AL East (Yankees) have far better records than the teams battling for AL Central superiority. That means, unless the Yankees continue to lose at the same pace they have been lately, the Twins will play on Wildcard Weekend, even if they win the division.

As of Saturday morning, the Minnesota Twins sit 1 game back of the Cleveland Guardians, in the AL Central standings. The White Sox are 3.5 games behind the division leaders. But winning the AL Central isn’t the Twins’ only opportunity to get into the postseason.

Earlier in the year, many believed the AL East was so good that they would run away with all three wildcard sports in the American League. But with 45 games remaining on the Twins schedule, they sit just 0.5 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays for the 3rd wildcard spot and just 2 games behind the Seattle Mariners for the 1st wildcard.

Wildcard Weekend explained

There are more significant changes that need to be mentioned, as it pertains to the 1st round of the upcoming playoffs. There will be two wildcard series in each conference (four total). Three wildcard teams and the worst of the three division winners. All 1st round series will be “best-of-3”. So, the first team to win two games will move onto the Divisional Round.

The other twist? All three games of each series will be played at the higher seed’s stadium. No switching locations. That means, should the Minnesota Twins win the AL Central, but miss out on a 1st round bye, they’d play all 1st round games at Target Field (vs the #3 wildcard team). The #1 wildcard will also play all of that weekend at home (vs the #2 wildcard team).

After the wildcard round, the playoff bracket looks much more familiar. Eight teams battling through the Divisional and Championship rounds, to reach the World Series. All games, from the Divisional round on will be “best-of-7”.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan