And it’s those two offseason moves, along with concern up the middle, that have many Wild fans nervous about the upcoming season. For good reason, too. Losing an 80-point scorer entering his prime and trusting a declining 38-year-old goalie are both worthy concerns.

Projection Models Love Wild

Unless you ask all of the NHL projection models on the internet. Models from Evolving Hockey, The Athletic and FiveThirtyEight.com all have the Minnesota Wild as a playoff team and the class of the Central Division, right behind Colorado.

They point to the emergence of Matt Boldy and Marco Rossi as major contributors to the Wild’s projected success. But really, the analytical optimism in these models stems from rising superstar Kirill Kaprizov. FiveThirtyEight.com is least optimistic (100 points, 76% playoff odds) but didn’t have any explanations to go with their projections.

The Athletic and Evolving Hockey are more bullish about the 2022-23 Wild, putting their playoff odds at over 90%.

FiveThirtyEight: 100 Points | Playoffs: 76% | NHL: 10th | Central: 3rd

The Athletic: 105.5 Points | Playoffs: 94% | NHL: 5th | Central: 2nd

And so that means the most optimistic projection yet for the Wild: 106 points and a one-in-10 shot at winning it all. It’s a massive jump from last year’s 97.8-point projection and that’s because the model wanted to see the Wild repeat the magic from Kaprizov’s rookie season. They did, finishing fifth in the league with 113 points. In the Kaprizov era, the Wild have played at a 112-point pace — they deserve a lofty point projection.

Evolving Hockey: 104 Points | Playoffs: 93% | NHL: 8th | Central: 2nd

Minnesota baby, right? With the continued improvement of Kirill Kaprizov, the out-of-nowhere surge in Ryan Hartman’s production, and young talents in Matt Boldy and Marco Rossi, the Wild are still projected to be an easy lock for the playoffs. And while their defensemen group isn’t what is used to be, Jared Spurgeon has so far shown no signs of aging, and Calen Addison is nice upgrade over Jordie Benn. Poor Arizona.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan

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A post shared by Minnesota Sports Fan (@realmnsportsfan) on Jul 25, 2019 at 4:52am PDT

Jake Odorizzi pitched like trash last night, giving up 9 earned runs in just 4 innings and even a great appearance by Devin Smeltzer, that stopped the bleeding, wasn’t enough for the Twins’ offensive firepower to climb back into it vs the Yankees. Yeah, Cleveland won again too.

So, the division lead is down to just 2 games (from 11.5 at one point) and Twins fans are trying not to panic but it isn’t easy…. you know… since this is Minnesota. I can’t blame anyone. I’ve been trying to keep my own Minnesota mind from going to that place…

?? #MNTwins https://t.co/CxfCxE5FZK

— Minnesota Sports Fan (@realmnsportsfan) July 25, 2019

But I’m sure you’ve heard the good news. The Twins’ schedule is about to ease up and it starts tonight when we travel to the south side of Chicago to face the shitty Chicago White Sox who just got done losing a series to the shittier Miami Marlins, who I didn’t know could actually win a series… Yeah, the Marlins are 38-62 on the season.

But Aaron Gleeman of Baseball Prospectus and the amazing “Gleeman and the Geek” Podcast dug deep into the numbers like he is so good at and he came out with some tangible numbers that made me feel better and hopefull does the same for you:

Comparing remaining schedules for the Twins and Indians.

Above-.500 teams:
Twins — 21
Indians — 35

Below-.500 teams:
Twins — 40
Indians — 26

Below-.400 teams:
Twins — 23
Indians — 13

Royals/Tigers/WSox:
Twins — 33
Indians — 20

Opponents' winning%:
Twins — #30
Indians — #15

— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) July 25, 2019

Here’s what it comes down to, because I’m not here for moral victories. The Twins are better than the Indians. Now, they have a remaining schedule that is MUCH easier than that of the Indians… So, as long as the Twins can avoid a meltdown, they will win the Central Division and they will be playing a full series in the 2019 MLB Playoffs.

That’s without making any trades that improve the obviously terrible bullpen and the tiring starting staff. Everyone knows how I feel about the Twins and trades that they will/need to make. On Darren Wolfson’s podcast from Monday, he says that he would be “shocked” if the Twins don’t make at least one big move for a bullpen pitcher, by the deadline, but that we could see as many as two new relievers and one new starter (exactly what I’ve been asking for since the beginning).

Right now, the problem is the high price being asked for guys who are available. Darren says the prices on these players is expected to drop significantly, as we enter Monday of next week. Remember, the trade deadline is at 3 PM CT on Wednesday, 6 days from now.

So Twins fans looking for optimism: study up the schedule and then take a weekend vacation away from your phone. You could miss the big deal you’ve been waiting for, but it’s unlikely and the stress you will save yourself (and weeks/months of your life), is worth taking that chance.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan