If Sam has to settle for one or two year deal worth, say, $25 million per season, then that would prove just how pessimistic the rest of the league is regarding the future of a 2024 Pro Bowler who threw for over 3,400 yards and 35 touchdowns in his one season with the Vikings.

NFL Insider expects Sam Darnold back with the Minnesota Vikings…?

And if you ask NFL insider Adam Schefter (ESPN), that is exactly what he is expecting to happen next week. On his most recent podcast, Schefter dove deep into what he is hearing behind the scenes on Darnold. And he claims that the most QB hungry teams (Giants, Raiders, Titans, etc) are all lukewarm on Darnold, making his market entering free agency rather underwhelming.

In fact, the market for Sam Darnold is so depressed, says the No. 1 NFL insider in the game, that the most likely landing spot for the former USC star in 2025 is right where he was last year. With the Minnesota Vikings… as an insurance plan for JJ McCarthy. — Darnold talk begins around the 06:25 mark — transcribed below in parts — Hat tip to @TPPSkol on X for catching this Schefty scoop first.

“It would not be surprising if the [Vikings and Darnold] figured out some type of short-term contract that enabled the Vikings to get Sam Darnold, that enabled him to get paid, that enabled them to run it back in the event that JJ. McCarthy is not fully ready this season from his knee injury or struggles in the preseason or experiences whatever type of setback there is.

So, to me, Sam Darnold to Minnesota makes sense, but now that he’s not going to be tagged, other teams are going to have their say. So, we’ll see if there’s a team out there, like the New York Giants, that makes a compelling enough offer to pry loose Sam Darnold. My guess as we tape this is no. My guess is the one that makes the most sense is Minnesota.”

Adam Schefter – The Adam Schefter Podcast

Related: Vikings Players Rank Near Top of Free Agent Position Groups

The Minnesota Vikings did not tag Sam Darnold before Tuesday’s 3 p.m. CST deadline. What does that mean? Those who read this site regularly know exactly how I feel about the situation. The Vikings missed out on a huge opportunity to gain back desperately needed 2025 draft capital by letting Darnold walk.

But apparently, that’s not what the market is telling general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah about the Vikings’ 2024 starting quarterback, five days before the negotiating period begins on March 10. Personally, I am still hard-pressed to believe that a 27-year-old former No. 3 overall pick isn’t worth rolling the dice on.

Darnold back to Minnesota makes sense to Adam Schefter

I mean, even if the Minnesota Vikings can get Darnold back cheaper than expected, would they really want to plant such stiff competition into camp with McCarthy? And if you’re Sam Darnold, do you really want to land somewhere you’re looking over your shoulder at JJ McCarthy all training camp, and if you win the job entering the regular season?

Prior to this week, the answer to those questions were believed to be, “no”. But apparently, the lack of interest in Darnold from other teams is making all sides question those past beliefs. Now, Schefty gets the feeling that landing back with the Vikings might not be so bad after all…

“I think another team like the Raiders, like the Giants, like the Titans, like whoever it is that had a quarterback question might be more compelled to throw big money at Sam Darnold. But when that big money apparently, because we never fully know, but when that big money apparently doesn’t materialize to its fullest extent, he’s happy in Minnesota. He’s with a great coach.

He’s with a great team. He thrived there. So the worst-case scenario is you go back to Minnesota, you go back on a short deal, you make good money this year, not as good as you would have hoped, but decent money, and then you parlay that and basically put off free agency for a year and try to test the market again next year.”

Adam Schefter – The Adam Schefter Podcast

As Schefter notes, we will soon find out what the market really thinks about Sam Darnold. Because more than likely, he is going to hit free agency. This doesn’t sound like there is going to be any sort of extension done. If Sam comes back, it will be due to his inability to find a better situation on the open market.

I do find what the ESPN NFL insider says next. If Sam Darnold does end up back in Minnesota, Schefy won’t guarantee he finishes out whatever contract he signs. He points to the possibility that another team suffers a QB injury between now and the start of the season.

Could the MN Vikings still get something for Sam Darnold?

An unforseen scenario like that could cause a desperate team to knock on the Vikings’ door to try and pry away Darnold, before the start of the season, just like Minnesota did Sam Bradford in 2017, when they traded a 1st round pick to Philly after Teddy Bridgewater blew out his knee during a preseason practice.

Related: Bears Making Moves to Fix O-Line as Vikings Watch

Otherwise, Sam plays out his one season with the Vikings and hits free agency again next year, hopefully with an even better and more proven positive reputation. Either way, Schefter claims, a return to Minnesota can absolutely end up being what’s best for Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings.

“Maybe he finishes strong next year and maybe he enters the market even more desired than he was this year…Or maybe there’s a team out there that suffers a quarterback injury in the summer and they say, you know what, let’s go trade for Sam Darnold and he’s got a chance to shine there.

By getting a short-term deal done with Minnesota, you almost reset the market with the same coaches, wide receivers and supporting cast and give yourself another chance, being that the market wasn’t quite as strong as a lot of people believe.”

Adam Schefter – The Adam Schefter Podcast

Darnold signed a one-year deal worth $10 million and was expected to hold the job down until rookie first-round quarterback J.J. McCarthy was ready to take over. It was a low-risk decision to bring in Darnold, the third-overall pick of the 2018 NFL draft.

He never reached the pre-draft expectations set upon him coming out of USC with the New York Jets. They dealt him to the Carolina Panthers after three seasons. After two inconsistent years in Carolina, Darnold joined the San Francisco 49ers in 2023, backing up Brock Purdy and receiving top-level coaching from Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan.

With proper coaching, it was expected that the Minnesota Vikings could squeeze out any potential Darnold still had after five shaky seasons in New York and Carolina. But when it was reported that McCarthy would miss the season with a meniscus injury, many wondered just how long Darnold could succeed before reverting to his old ways.

The Minnesota Vikings and Sam Darnold haven’t discussed a long-term contract

Ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Falcons, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that Darnold and the Vikings hadn’t engaged in any talks regarding a long-term contract. This would mean that Darnold would be a free agent following the season and would likely set the stage for McCarthy to take over in 2025 as the team’s starting quarterback.

Despite the success he had had replacing Kirk Cousins, whom he is facing off against today, Sam Darnold and the Vikings have not had any discussions regarding a long-term contract, per sources. Darnold is scheduled to be a free agent after this season. pic.twitter.com/cWQlwzWglK

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 8, 2024

The Minnesota Vikings probably wouldn’t want to sign another veteran QB to a long-term contract after getting out of Cousins’ contract. Add in that Kevin O’Connell has gotten the most out of almost every quarterback that he’s worked with in Minnesota, and all signs point to the Vikings being content with letting Darnold walk.

Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield’s contracts could be comparable to Darnold’s

Darnold wouldn’t be the first quarterback to sign a big contract after a disappointing start to his career. Like Schultz speculated, Darnold could sign a contract similar to what Baker Mayfield did with Tampa Bay last spring.

Mayfield signed a 3-year/$100 million contract after throwing for 4,044 yards, 28 touchdowns, and only 10 interceptions in 2023. He led the Buccaneers to an upset win over the Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card round of the playoffs before the Detroit Lions ended their run one week later.

All of this aligns with what Fox Sports insider Jordan Schultz tweeted on Saturday night. He told Colin Cowherd on The Herd that he believes that Darnold will be commanding a high salary this off-season.

It’s becoming clear in league circles that Sam Darnold will command a high price this offseason and could be out of the #Vikings’ budget.

Here’s what could happen at quarterback next season for Kevin O'Connell and Co., via @TheHerd with @colincowherd: pic.twitter.com/zdCzYngTlA

— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) December 7, 2024

“I think it’s going to be extremely difficult for Minnesota to retain him, because of the year he’s had. In my opinion, he’s probably going to garner somewhere along the lines of what Baker Mayfield got, 3 years, $100 million, which is probably fair, considering his age. He’s still pretty young, and because of what he’s shown on tape this year.”

FOX Sports NFL Insider Jordan Schultz on The Herd w/Colin Cowherd

Through 12 games, Darnold has put up similar numbers to Mayfield did in 2023. Heading into Sunday’s matchup against the Falcons, Darnold has thrown for 2,952 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions with five games still to play. That’s not including any potential playoff games where prospective teams get to see Darnold on the biggest stage.

Geno Smith is another recent Sam Darnold free agent comp

Per Schultz reporting, Darnold’s contract numbers will likely fall somewhere between what Mayfield and Smith signed. Mayfield was heading into his age 29 season when he signed his deal. But he had already reached the playoffs with the Cleveland Browns in 2020, showing he could be a capable quarterback in the right situation.

Seattle’s Geno Smith, a former second-round pick, didn’t break out until his tenth season when he threw for 4,282 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions in 2022. He was rewarded with a 3-year/$75 million deal after the season.

Smith was heading into his age 33 season when he signed his contract. His early playing career more closely resembles Darnold’s. But if Darnold can stack playoff success on top of what he’s shown through 12 games, he will easily surpass Smith’s contract.

Darnold will be just 28 years old for most of the 2025 season. Although he won’t have the luxury of a coaching staff having experience with him before the extension like Mayfield did, Darnold’s two years with Shanahan in San Fran and KOC with the Minnesota Vikings, could convince teams that he’s a new quarterback moving forward.

Related: Minnesota Vikings Have Been Trying to Extend Byron Murphy Jr

Expect his contract to be closer to Mayfield’s, possibly surpassing it with a playoff run. But no matter what the contract looks like, Darnold likely won’t be receiving it from the Minnesota Vikings.

Opinions are all over the place on this dilemma and, now that the Vikings have found their new general manager and head coach, it’s on the forefront of minds. But not all opinions are created equal. Like when the NFL insider, Adam Schefter, goes on ESPN during their coverage of the Pro Bowl and weighs in on the subject. That’s what happened Sunday.

“Here’s the thing you have to keep in mind: They’re going to be bringing in (head coach) Kevin O’Connell. Kevin O’Connell worked with Kirk Cousins in Washington. Kirk Cousins endorsed Kevin O’Connell for that job. One of the reasons Kevin kind of wants that (Minnesota) job is because of Kirk Cousins. There’s a relationship.”

“So that tells me that Minnesota and Kirk Cousins will figure out something, and maybe come up with a restructured contract that adds years on for Kirk Cousins and gives the Vikings salary cap relief this offseason, to give them more money to spend on other players.”

Adam Schefter – ESPN (Quote via NESN.com)

Kirk Cousins Endorsed O’Connell?

This part of Schefter’s quote is what intrigues me the most. Would the Wilfs or new general manager, Adofo-Mensah, really go to Kirk Cousins as part of their head coach hiring process? But when you take a step back and think about, why wouldn’t they tap on Cousins?.

They’re hiring a new leader for their football team and have Kirk in-house. He worked very closely with O’Connell just five years ago (2017) when he was Kirk’s QB’s coach in Washington. Why wouldn’t the Vikings’ search committee use Cousins as a resource in that situation?

Extension Doesn’t Eliminate Trade

Kirk Cousins wants to be in Minnesota and he’s made that very clear. I’d also imagine the prospects of working with an offensive mind like Kevin O’Connell is extremely enticing. If Kirk is going to wear Vikings purple in 2022, that’s the mindset he’ll need entering negotiations.

The new regime at TCO Performance Center will not want to marry themselves to three more years of Cousins without an easy way to get out of the deal if things go sideways. Should Kirk be open to an extension that makes him easy to trade next offseason, a new deal becomes pretty easy to negotiate.

Remember, the Minnesota Vikings offense has a lot of weapons to feed and they’re very unlikely to find a quarterback in the upcoming draft who is capable of feeding all of them in his rookie season. So why bring in a below-average journeyman QB if Kirk Cousins is willing to make himself more affordable? You wouldn’t.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan