PECOTA Picks Twins to Win AL Central; Sox to Struggle

Photo: Brace Hemmelgarn – Getty Images

PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) is an algorithm-based system used to project future MLB player and team performance. It’s owned by Baseball Prospectus and has been hot and cold on the Minnesota Twins for the last few years.

The algorithm was close in 2018, when it projected a .500 (81-81) team, when nobody else expected them to be any good, but called for them to get destroyed by Cleveland in 2019, which definitely didn’t happen.

In 2020, PECOTA was back on the Minnesota Twins bandwagon, picking them to win the AL Central by six games. After an offseason full of consternation, PECOTA fell back in line with the Twins again in 2021.

In other words, nobody’s exactly sure how PECOTA works, but it’s the best we’ve got.



2021 Algorithm doesn’t like the White Sox.

The best part of this year’s projections, might be PECOTA’s view of the Chicago White Sox. They’re barely projected to crack .500.

A good White Sox team wouldn’t be the first to prove PECOTA wrong, But until then, I’m going to be here laughing at them. Cleveland continues to trade all of its best players and the southsiders still can’t keep up.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan