What If I Told You… That Playoff Zack Greinke Isn’t Very Good?

After a crazy regular season finale across Major League Baseball, the (3) Minnesota Twins have drawn the (6) Houston Astros for a 3-game Wild Card Series at Target Field. Kenta Maeda will throw the series’ first pitch at 1PM CT on Tuesday. Then, Zack Greinke will take the mound for Houston.

When the Houston Astros traded for Zack Greinke at the 2019 trade deadline, they solidified what looked to be the best starting rotation in baseball. It started with Justin Verlander, rolled into Garrit Cole and was topped off by Zack Greinke. It doesn’t get much better than that, right?

In the 2019 AL Divisional Round, the Astros went up against the Tampa Bay Rays. Their trade-deadline genius looked to be paying off when Verlander steamrolled through the Rays lineup in game 1. He surrendered just one hit and zero runs in 7 innings. Houston took the series opener. With Garrit Cole on the mound in game 2, the result was more of the same. 7.2 innings, 4 hits, zero runs and an Astros victory.

Needing just one more victory to complete an ALDS sweep and move onto the American League Championship Series, with rest, Houston ran their prized trade deadline acquisition, Zack Greinke, out to the mound. That’s when the entire landscape of this series changed.

Greinke was terrible.

1 swing and the Rays are up. #ALDS pic.twitter.com/6XZyxnieio

— MLB (@MLB) October 7, 2019

The Houston Astros stumbled again in game 4, but finally pulled out their series-clinching victory in game-5, thanks to 8 innings of 2-hit, 1-run baseball by Garrit Cole.

Greinke never really recovered. The Astros lost his next start, 0-7, to the Yankees (game-1 of ALCS). Zack pitched six innings in that game, but gave up 7 hits (2 HR) and 3 runs, only striking out 5.

Houston still made the 2019 World Series, but they got there on the banging of trash cans, not the coattails of Zack Greinke, who never stretched his services farther than 6.1 innings. He finished the 2019 postseason with 25 innings pitched (5 starts), a 4.68 ERA and an opponent OPS of .835. I won’t go as far as to say Greinke stood in the way of an Astros World Series in 2019… but I’m betting they’d reverse that deadline trade and try the whole thing again, if given the chance.

Going Deeper Into Greinke’s Playoff Past

I wouldn’t have written this blog for just one bad Zack Greinke playoff run. Zack’s playoff demons go farther back than 2019. He helped the Diamondbacks make the playoffs back in 2017 and pitched the play-in Wild Card game for them. Luckily, Arizona also brought their bats that night and won 11-8.

His NLDS appearance that season wasn’t much better. He got his shot with the Diamondbacks down in the series, 0-2, and facing elimination. They needed their newly-acquired and highly-paid ace to give them hope. Instead, he gave them mediocre.

Playoff Greinke Was Better With the Dodgers

While Zack Greinke has struggled in his most recent playoff appearances, he does have a history of being pretty damn good, too. You just have to go back to his days with the Los Angeles Dodgers from 2013-2015.

In that time, Greinke appeared in 6 playoff games and 41.2 playoff innings. He posted a 2.38 ERA and opponents hit a pathetic .186 off him, with an OPS of just .527. He struck out 41 playoff hitters and gave up just 3 home runs. Playoff Zack was pretty much dominant, while in a Dodgers uniform.

But, that was 5 years and 2 teams ago, for Greinke. He’s now 36 years old and coming off only his second regular season since 2011, with an ERA over 4.00. The Minnesota Twins can definitely get to this Zack Greinke but that doesn’t mean he’s washed up. ERA doesn’t tell his entire 2020 story.

Greinke also posted his best FIP since 2015, when he went to the all-star game and came up 2nd in Cy Young voting. He’s been striking out hitters at his highest pace since 2017 too, at 9 guys per 9 innings.

How About Kenta Maeda?

Kenta Maeda burst onto the Major League Baseball scene back in 2016 and immediately hit the ground running. He started 32 regular season games that season for the Los Angeles Dodgers, posting a 3.48 ERA in 175.2 innings and coming in 3rd for rookie of the year voting.

Unfortunately, his first playoff appearances didn’t go as well. Maeda pitched in three postseason games for the Dodgers that season, posting a 6.75 ERA in 10.2 innings and allowing an .896 OPS. He would never start another playoff game for LA, though he would appear for them in 21 more postseason games.

Over the next three seasons, he was relegated to the playoff bullpen, where he was absolutely dominant.

Now, Maeda is coming off his best regular season of his short MLB career. Can he combine that, with his playoff dominance from the bullpen, and come out with a game-1 gem for the Twins? Hopefully… but they may not even need it, if Greinke brings the same playoff stuff he has recently.

See you Tuesday!

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan