5 Metrics That Shaped Minnesota Vikings Victory Over Jaguars

The Vikings escaped Jacksonville with a 12-7 victory over the Jaguars. It was an odd game in which the Vikings dominated every aspect. They outgained the Jaguars 402 yards to 143, and 28-10 in first downs. Three turnovers evened the playing field, though, and made a game that should have been 31-7 go down to the wire.

Before and after each National Football League game, a premium online tool called ‘NFL Pro’ ($ubscription) releases some deeper dive metrics, aided by Next Gen Stats. These advanced metrics offer us yet another way to analyze a football game, beyond traditional box scores.

Metrics that matter from Minnesota Vikings vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Wouldn’t we all love to watch hours of Vikings tape every week? Some might, but cramming “All-22” film is not reality for most fans, even if it is their dream. Those people rely on NFL pundits and advanced analytics for next-level analysis.

Related: What We Learned About the Minnesota Vikings in Nail-Biting Victory Over Jaguars

So, here are five advanced NFL Pro metrics that I believe shaped the Minnesota Vikings win on Sunday over the Jacksonville Jaguars. This week, more than most, the numbers paint one hell of a picture.

Jaguars blitzed Sam Darnold just 4.8% of the time

Sam Darnold had been great against the blitz heading into Sunday’s game. He was completing 75.4% of his passes when blitzed, throwing eight touchdowns and only one interception. His numbers dropped when he wasn’t blitzed, completing 67.3% of his passes for six touchdowns and three interceptions.

Although the Jaguars have had a poor pass defense all season, they entered the game blitzing on an NFL-low 15.8% of passes. The Jaguars pulled back on the blitz even more on Sunday, sending extra pressure on only 4.8% of Darnold’s dropbacks.

Related: Minnesota Vikings Open as Big Favorites in Week 11

Although he completed 24/38 passes for 241 yards, he threw three interceptions. It may be the blueprint for defenses moving forward. Kevin O’Connell has to change some things for Darnold moving forward to avoid these kinds of performances.

Jacksonville used split-safety looks 92.9% of the time

Jacksonville kept things simple in the back end of their defense as well. They ran Two deep, split-safety (cover 2) looks on 92.9% of dropbacks, the highest usage any NFL defense has run since 2018. This allowed Sam Darnold to pick them apart in the short game, going 20/23 for 164 yards and one (red zone) interception.

Darnell Savage picks off Sam Darnold right outside the endzone. 3rd pick of the day pic.twitter.com/zR3FZIQENl

— Fitz (@LaurieFitzptrck) November 10, 2024

Unfortunately, the Jags’ split safety defense neutralized the Minnesota Vikings’ deep and intermediate passing game, where Darnold went 4/14 for 77 yards and 2 INTs in passes that traveled ten or more yards in the air. Nearly every time Sam tried to air things out, in ended poorly. The Jags’ constant split-safety look was a big reason for that.

TJ Hockenson had a +24.1% Catch Rate Over Expected

Perhaps no one on offense had a bigger game than T.J. Hockenson. Hockenson’s CROE (Catch Rate Over Expected) was +24.1% in his second game back from his ACL tear. This means he caught 24.1% more of his targets than an average receiver would have caught in similar situations.

Related: Would the Minnesota Vikings be Better with Kirk Cousins at Quarterback?

With the deep game taken away, Darnold leaned heavy on Hockenson’s ability to make difficult catches in traffic in the short game. And it paid off. TJ caught 8 of 9 targets, easily establishing himself as the most productive target on the field for the Minnesota Vikings

TJ Hockenson

– 15.2 Fantasy Points Week 10
– 8 Catches, 72 Yards

First normal workload game of the season after returning from injury.

9 Targets tied for team lead with Justin Jefferson.

Dependable volume is RARE at the TE position.

Top 6 TE ROS.pic.twitter.com/vVxzMbEQMo

— Joe Orrico (@NoExpertFF) November 11, 2024

Minnesota Vikings only blitzed Mac Jones on 25.9% of his dropbacks

Brian Flores dialed back on the blitzing on Sunday as well. He sent extra pressure on 25.9% of Mac Jones’ dropbacks. This is considerably lower than the season-average blitz-rate of 39.9%. Interestingly, the Vikings had a sack-rate of 11.1%, higher than their season-average of 7.9%.

What do these numbers tell us? That the Minnesota Vikings defense was supplying pressure through disguise and better talent, not extra pass rushers. That allowed Flores to pull back and focus on coverage, while four rushers put pressure on Mac Jones.

Related: Jets Superstar CB Cannot Believe How Much Kevin O’Connell Got in His Head vs Vikings

It also shows, once again, that Flores can adapt his gameplan on a week-to-week basis, even if it means dialing it up, or dialing it back mid-game. This time, Flo saw a mediocre backup quarterback behind a struggling offensive line, and adjusted the defense to take advantage.

Blake Cashman made a big difference for Minnesota’s defense

The Vikings got linebacker Blake Cashman back in the lineup for the first time since Week 5. I’m going to cheat here and highlight several of his metrics because his impact was felt all over. He made three run stops on 34 snaps, helping stifle the Jaguars’ run game.

His impact was felt in the pass rush as well, blitzing six times and getting two pressures and a sack. And his presence in coverage was phenomenal once again, allowing one reception on two targets for nine yards. Cashman has only allowed 94 yards and one touchdown in six games where he is the nearest defender.