Twins Look Like Real Players in Carlos Correa Sweepstakes

Leading up to the MLB offseason, nobody has given the Minnesota Twins a real chance at landing Carlos Correa to the long-term contract he seeks this free agency. Sure, they got him on a one-year flyer for 2022 and he and his wife seem to have enjoyed their time in the Twin Cities.

But when all the chips are pushed in, there’s no way the Pohlads will have the most attractive offer on the table for Correa, right? Seems unlikely when we’re talking about the youngest of the superstar shortstops on an offseason market being hunted by heavy swingers like the Dodgers and Yankees. Or at least, that’s what everybody thought.

Carlos Correa + Twins Steam

Now it’s still early, but league-wide doubt that Correa and the Twins could come back together has dissipated. Replacing it is some steam of a reunion. And it’s quietly getting hotter… Here’s MLB insider, Jon Heyman, of the New York Post:

Don’t count out the incumbent Twins. While they aren’t in a big market, their owner is among the richest in the game. And they absolutely loved him. “He had a great time there,” his agent Scott Boras said. “It really turned out to be a great fit. It’s certainly something we’re going to discuss.” 

Jon Heyman – New York Post

But it’s not just Jon who mentions the Minnesota Twins as real players in the market for Correa. Just about every report surrounding the 28-year-old shortstop has the Twins connected in some way. They have made it clear how interested they are and they’re confident in how much he and his wife likes it here.

Twins Expected to be Aggressive

The Athletic’s Dan Hayes wrote about a possible reunion between the two sides earlier this week, with quotes from Twins’ President of Baseball Operations, Derek Falvey.

“It’s pretty clear to us he likes us,” Falvey said. “We like him. If there’s a way to find a match, that’s going to be something we’re going to try to explore.”

Derek Falvey (via The Athletic)

And the Twins are expected to be one of the more aggressive teams in free agency this offseason, according to MLB insider, Jeff Passan (ESPN). Which isn’t something we hear often from national reporters. How aggressive will they have to be to land Carlos Correa?

According to ESPN, Correa is the 3rd-best free agent on the market this offseason and they project him to land an 8-year deal worth $265 million ($33.1M/YR). If that is his final selling price then he’ll be pushing to the very edge of how long Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are able to offer.

What do the odds say?

Sportsbook aggregator, Oddschecker.com, gives Minnesota the second-best odds (+550) to land Carlos Correa in free agency, behind only the Cubs, who are pretty big favorites. But for an organization that had relatively zero likelihood just one month ago, a 15% chance feels like a huge change.

Eric Strack | Minnesota Sports Fan