Twins Love Analytics but Refuse to Admit Pinch Hitting is Dumb

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Manuel Margot
Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Baseball is not a game played on spreadsheets, but the best organizations use data-driven processes to drive their results. The Minnesota Twins are among those forward-thinking organizations. That doesn’t remove feel from the game, and Rocco Baldelli has become too rigid with regards to pinch hitting.

Rocco Baldelli has hurt Minnesota Twins with pinch hitting

There have been plenty of unfounded criticisms thrown at Rocco Baldelli this season. If there is one that sticks, it’s this one. The Minnesota Twins have lived and died through pinch hitters this season, and it has cost them plenty. Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic put it succinctly.

“It’s hard to argue the Twins’ frequent pinch hitting has paid off. Baldelli has used the AL’s second-most pinch hitters this year (176), and they’ve hit just .196 with a .566 OPS. Baldelli has also used the AL’s second-most pinch hitters since 2021 (595), and they’ve batted just .205 with a .609 OPS that ranks fifth-worst in the league in that span. It hasn’t been a winning strategy.”

Gleeman on the Twins pinch hitting (The Athletic)

The thinking behind a pinch hitter for Baldelli is straightforward. His lineups have been platoon-focused for the past two years. Only three teams in baseball have had the platoon advantage more often than Minnesota’s 62.6% this season. Minnesota’s manager has tried to constantly give his hitters a leg up, but it has been to their detriment on a large scale.

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Pinch hit leverage index measures the situation in which a pinch hitter is used. League average in 2024 comes out to 1.53. The Twins have put their pinch hitters in the eighth-lowest leverage situations at 1.44. Essentially, Baldelli doing line changes multiple times throughout a game is often in spots where the game doesn’t even dictate that decision.

It’s great that Manuel Margot has hit lefties this season. If he hadn’t then there would be no value at all. There isn’t a spot in which he should be taking at bats for anyone though. It took Baldelli months to give Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, and others same-handed plate appearances. Although they aren’t in the best spot during those at bats, it removes a more quality player from the lineup as a whole.

Related: Minnesota Twins Trying to Get Reinforcements Back on the Field

Rocco Baldelli being as rigid as he has been with regards to pinch hitting this year for the Twins has been a problem. At times it was because of the results players were putting forward, but an inability to adjust isn’t good.

Pinch hitting can come back to haunt more than Minnesota

From a general baseline perspective, the reality is that a pinch hitter represents a situational advantage rather than an overall one. To explain a step further, for whatever reason, the pinch hitter is coming off the bench to replace someone that warranted a starting spot.

No team in baseball gave pinch hitters more at bats in 2024 than the Minnesota Twins (155). The team that utilized pinch hitters the least? That’s the New York Yankees (51). Aaron Boone isn’t take Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, or Giancarlo Stanton out of any spot. He also isn’t rearranging deck chairs for hitters similar to Anthony Volpe, Gleyber Torres, or Oswaldo Cabrera.

If you are going to pinch hit, then leaning into it at the most opportune times makes sense. The Tampa Bay Rays have just 101 pinch hit at bats this season, but they have generated a leverage index of 1.91. Unless the specific outcome of that at bat is going to win them the game, then playing slight probabilities is something they choose to avoid.

Pitching in the big leagues has become such a perfected science, and pitch hitters are often tasked with facing a nasty reliever meant just for them. The ability to come off the bench and succeed against stuff like that is not a skill most players posses.

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Ultimately a team is often better served by sticking with their best options each time the game starts, than they are trying to mix in an option for a given situation. When that spot in the order comes back around, a manager doesn’t have to worry about thinking what if.

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